The Handicapper's Library
BRIS PEDIGREE RATINGS F.A.Q.The Fast (Dirt) Pedigree rating measures the quality and suitability of the horse's breeding for races run on the dirt. The Wet Pedigree rating measures the quality and suitability of the horse's breeding for races run over a wet dirt surface. The Distance Pedigree rating measures the overall quality and suitability of the horse's breeding for races run at today's distance. The Turf Pedigree rating measures the quality and suitability of the horse's breeding for races run on the turf.
HOW SHOULD I INTERPRET THE BRIS PEDIGREE RATINGS?
In turf races, look for those horses whose TURF Pedigree Rating is higher than his/her FAST dirt Pedigree Rating. These horses, based on the performances of other horses with similiar breeding, are well suited to the grass and often improve considerably when trying the grass. In dirt races, look for those horses whose DIST Pedigree Rating is higher than his/her overall FAST dirt Pedigree Rating. These horses, based on the performances of other horses with similiar breeding, are well suited to today's distance and often show substantial improvement when today's distance is considerably shorter or longer than his/her other races. In races run on a wet track, look for those horses whose WET Pedigree Rating is higher than their FAST dirt Pedigree Rating. These horses, based on the performances of other horses with similiar breeding, are well suited to a wet track and often improve dramatically when running on a wet track.
HOW ARE THE BRIS PEDIGREE RATINGS CALCULATED?
WHAT DO THE '?' AND '*' SYMBOLS MEAN?
WHEN SHOULD I USE THE BRIS PEDIGREE RATINGS?
WHERE CAN I FIND THE BRIS PEDIGREE RATINGS ?
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
USING PEDIGREE STATISTICS FOR HANDICAPPINGAN EXAMPLE OF PEDIGREE STATISTICS ON A RUNNER: RECKLESS ROSE, 21FEB85 114, $ 10,500, JKY: FP FUENTES BY THE IRISH LORD (333fls)(75%wnr)(44%2ywnr)(16%1st)(17%mud)(awd6.3)(spi1.79) - GO SOUTH (p)(4str)(3wnrs)(1sw)(25%2ywnrs)(dpi3.88)
STANDARD STARTS INDEX (SSI) For example, the average earnings per start at two for all colts foaled in 1960 was $400; and the average earnings per start at two for all fillies foaled in 1960 was $283. Thus, a colt foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $400 has an SSI of 1.00. And a filly foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $283 also has an SSI of 1.00. Both the colt and filly have the same SSI due to the higher lifetime earning expectancy of colts. A runner with an index of 1.00 is considered to be of the same caliber as all other runners with indexes of 1.00 regardless of the year foaled or sex. Thus, a colt foaled in 1930 which had an average per start of $94 and an SSI of 1.00 for his crop and sex would be considered of the same caliber as a colt foaled in 1960 with an average earnings per start of $400 and an SSI of 1.00.
DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (DPI)
SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX (SPI)
"RECKLESS ROSE" = THE RUNNER'S NAME
"21FEB85" = THE RUNNER'S FOALING DATE
By knowing the actual birthdates of two-year-olds,
handicappers have an edge at the betting windows. The
"early" foals (Jan-Mar) have a tremendous advantage over
"late" foals, due to their maturity advantage.
"114" = ASSIGNED WEIGHT FOR THE RACE ENTERED
"$10,500" = HIGHEST PUBLIC AUCTION PRICE
"JKY: FP FUENTES" = JOCKEY FOR THE RACE ENTERED
"THE IRISH LORD" = THE RUNNER'S SIRE'S NAME
(333fls) = THE NUMBER OF FOALS BY THE SIRE
Bloodstock Research recommends that handicappers demand at
least fifty (50) foals by a sire before weighting that
sire's pedigree statistics heavily. This will insure the
reliability of the information.
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
(75%wnr) = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE RACE BY
THE SIRE.
The higher the %wnr the better.
(44%2ywnr) = THE PERCENTAGE OF 2-YEAR-OLD STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST
ONE RACE
In two-year-old races, prefer runners with a high "%2ywnr".
(16%1st) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME STARTERS
Any first-time starter with a %1st greater than 15% should
be considered a threat to win at first asking. Is the
runner ready? Check the runner's workout tab and the
trainer's competence with first-time starters. In
addition, the handicapper should look for a leading jockey
or stable rider.
NOTE: AFTER A RUNNER HAS RACED, DO NOT USE THE %1ST IN YOUR HANDICAPPING.
(17%MUD) = THE WIN PERCENTAGE OF MUD STARTS BY THE SIRE
If a runner hasn't yet demonstrated a liking or disliking
for mud and today's track is muddy, use the "%mud" to
predict the runner's preference. Prefer runners with high
"%mud" percentages.
(AWD6.3) = THE AVERAGE WINNING DISTANCE (IN FURLONGS) OF THE SIRE'S
WINNERS
Among first-time starters entered in sprints, look for
runners with an AWD close to distance of the race you're
handicapping, but prefer AWDs shorter than the distance.
These first-time starters are the most likely to show the
early speed that dominates these races. If a first-time
starter's AWD is larger than desired (ie., greater than
6.5 in a 6 furlong sprint), the handicapper should become
strict on other measures of early speed - in particular,
demand a relatively high %1st and/or at least one short
work out at three or four furlongs indicating "strong
speed". Generally, workouts of about 12 seconds per
furlong is a good indication of speed. For runners
"stretching out" (sprint to route) for the first time,
prefer those runners whose sire shows an AWD of seven (7)
furlongs or more. These first time "stretch outs" are more
likely to show the stamina it takes to cover the extra
distance in these races.
(spi1.79) = The Sire's Production Index is a numerical representation
of a sire's class and consistency, based upon relative
earnings. The calculation of the SPI involves the ratio of
a sire's colts and fillies average earnings per start for a
year, respectively, and the average earnings per start for
all colts and fillies, respectively, for the same year.
The average SPI of all sires is 1.00. The SPI is useful
with first-time starters and first-time stretchouts.
While the SPI is not as powerful as some other pedigree
statistics (%1st and awd), it is quite helpful when used to
separate otherwise equal first-time starters and first-time
stretchouts.
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
( %tfwins) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S STARTERS ON THE TURF
%tfwins is best used to evaluate first-time turf starters.
%tfwins combined with %1sttf is a reliable indicator of a
runner's probable liking/disliking to the turf. Obviously,
the handicapper prefers the higher percentages.
( %1sttf) = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME TURF STARTERS
Any first-time turf starter with a %1sttf greater than 15%
should be considered a threat - regardless of recent form
on the dirt.
Dam statistics, in general, should be weighted considerably less than sire statistics. The lighter weighting of dams is justified simply on the basis of numbers. Since a stallion may sire hundreds of foals, his statistics are far more reliable than that of a dam who produces just a few. Still, dam statistics can be helpful (ie., to separate otherwise equal first-time starters). "GO SOUTH" = THE DAM'S NAME
(p) = THE DAM'S RACE PERFORMANCE. The best race performance of
GO SOUTH was "placed". Prefer in descending order:
sw - stakes winner
sp - stakes placed
w - winner
p - placed
up - unplaced
ur - unraced
(4str) = THE NUMBER OF FOALS WHICH STARTED AT LEAST ONE RACE
Demand at least 4 starters out of the Dam to assure
reliability of the information.
(3wnrs) = THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A RACE
Obviously, the more winners the better.
(1sw) = THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A STAKES RACE
Again, the more stakes winners the better.
(25%2ywnrs) = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS THAT WON A ONE RACE AS A
TWO-YEAR-OLD.
In two-year-old races, runners with a high "%2ywnrs" are
preferred.
(dpi3.88) = DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (SEE SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX FOR
EXPLANATION)
Like the SPI, the DPI is useful for separating young
runners with little or no racing record. The handicapper
prefers runners with the higher DPI.
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
****************************************************************************** * * * DANCING LINDSAY, 86 117, TR: GOSDEN JOHN H M, JKY: CA BLACK * * * * BY LILOY (FR) (193fls)(51%wnr)(14%2ywnr)(2%1st)(13%mud)(awd7.7)(spi2.15) * * - BOLD BRAT (sw)(4str)(1wnrs)(1sw)(0%2ywnrs)(dpi2.01) * * 25Jy88HOL06 6f FT 03 5 1/4 Gosden J Md Sp Wt 111.5 111.9 57 26000 * * 10Jy88HOL04 6f FT 09 19 Gosden J Md Sp Wt 111.7 107.8 44 26000 * * * ******************************************************************************In two-year-old maiden races at a mile (or more), handicappers should concentrate their analysis of the race on those runners which figure to benefit at the distance. With most two-year-old-races carded at sprint distances, many two-year-olds bred for the longer distances must enter sprints until a race at a favorable distance is carded. The sixth race at Del Mar on September 7, 1988 was at one mile for two-year-old maidens. Handicapper's with Bloodstock Research's pedigree information could have easily spotted a tremendous overlay. In a race filled with runners stretching out for the first time in their young careers, Dancing Lindsay figured to benefit the most from the added distance - as evidenced by an AWD of 7.7. This lightly raced filly was exiting a good effort at six furlongs in only her second career start. Placed at a more comfortable distance, she figured to show more improvement. With the generous odds of 12.5 to 1, Dancing Lindsay was a license to steal. She won easily paying $27.00. ******************************************************************************* * * * DECOY, 86 118, JKY: A CORDERO JR * * * *BY CLEVER TRICK (241fls)(72%wnr)(50%2ywnr)(21%1st)(16%mud)(awd6.5)(spi2.28) * * - BRIDGE TABLE (ur)(3str)(3wnrs)(0sw)(33%2ywnrs)(dpi3.13) * * No Previous North American Starts * * * *******************************************************************************Two-year-old maiden races are dominated by runners with early speed. Runners expected to be up front early combined with moderate to high odds present handicappers with solid investment opportunities. The fourth race at Belmont on September 7, 1988 was a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for maiden two-year-olds. This race powerfully demonstrates the value of Bloodstock Research's pedigree information. Decoy, a first-time starter, was obviously well bred - as indicated by a SPI of 2.28 and a DPI of 3.13 . And more importantly his pedigree statistics indicated an ability to win at first asking - as indicated by a %1st of 21%! The AWD of 6.5 is acceptable - especially, considering the high %1st and a 3f workout in :36 flat from the gate (printed in the Daily Racing Form). At odds of nearly 8 to 1, Decoy was a solid investment and proved to be a profitable one. He went wire to wire, while never being threatened paying $17.80. The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
SPEED & CLASS MOVING AVERAGESThis numerical representation is computed by taking the average Race Rating a runner has run in up to its last five in-the-money performances covering not more than a year period from the date of the race entered. In-the-money performances at the same distance/surface category as the race entered are emphasized through a sophisticated weighting procedure, and then are further adjusted to reflect the runners in-the-money performance and consistency. To alert horsemen and handicappers of an Average Competitive Level computed solely on races NOT RUN at the same distance and surface as the race entered, it will appear in parentheses, for example: (114.2). IF A RUNNER HAS NEVER BEEN IN-THE-MONEY, IT WILL NOT HAVE AN AVERAGE COMPETITIVE LEVEL. WHILE EXTENSIVE RESEARCH AND TESTING HAVE VERIFIED THE PRECISION OF THE AVERAGE COMPETITIVE LEVEL, PLEASE FOLLOW THE BELOW GUIDELINES WHILE USING IT TO CLAIM HORSES OR TO HANDICAP:
The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
DISTANCE/SURFACE CATEGORYThe term "DISTANCE/SURFACE CATEGORY" is used frequently throughout the explanations of Bloodstock Research's Ratings and must be defined before proceeding. Race, Class, and Speed Ratings, as well as basic handicapping principles used to bet or claim horses are based upon the evaluation of a runner's performance in the same "distance/surface category". The importance of this will be explained as you continue reading the explanations in this section.
Distances Are Divided Into Two Categories:
==========================================
* Sprint - All races less than a mile.
* Route - All races greater than a mile.
Surfaces Are Divided Into Two Categories:
=========================================
* Fast or Good Track Conditions
* All Other Track Conditions
Before a runner qualifies as running at the same distance/surface category, its previous races must have been in the same surface and distance category and within one furlong of the race you are handicapping. (Exception: If the race you're evaluating or handicapping is 10 furlongs or longer.) The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
Using Ultimate PP's to Your Advantageby Les Instone Let me open by saying . . . there is no short-cut to good handicapping! To become a good handicapper or to be good at anything, you need to learn everything you can and continue to learn from your experience. The Ultimate Past Performances from Bloodstock Research gives you more information than the average bettor at the racetrack has available. That information gives you an advantage - IF and only if, you use the information effectively. Using this exclusive information will make quite a bit of difference in your bottom line. One of the many mistakes made by novice handicappers is not learning from your previous experience. Go back through the Ultimate PP’s for the last week and highlight stats that could have pointed toward, not only the winner, but horses that were close (within 3 lengths) at the finish. ANALYZING ULTIMATE PP’s Starting at the top of a horse’s past performance, let’s first look at "the human factors" . . the jockey and trainer. Look for riders with at least a 12% win rate for the current year and for the current meet. I like a rider who has a higher win percentage for this meet compared to his overall percentage for the year. I also like to see a higher win percentage for the jockey when he or she rides for this particular trainer. Also, look at the rider’s win percent with horses of this running style. Some jockeys are better suited to a particular running style, and the statistics found in the Ultimate PP’s will show if this is the case. Look at the trainer’s stats in the same manner. Pay particularly close attention to the trainer stats pertinent to this race. Trainers have strengths and weaknesses. For example, some professional handicappers recommend staying away from all horses laid off for 90 days or more, but this rule is too general. With BRIS Ultimate PP’s, you will find trainers that excel with horses off the long lay-off. This is just one of the many advantages you will have over the general betting public who would never bet such a runner. Watch for trainers that excel with specific trainer moves like "dirt - turf - dirt", "route to sprint", "2nd grass start", etc. Next, let’s go to the Prime Power rating and ranking (located next to the career record). This is one rating per horse, and it is Bloodstock Research’s most predictive number. Prime Power employs a sophisticated algorithm to combine many factors -- pace, class, speed, form, etc. -- into one rating. While the number does pinpoint a high percentage of winners, it does not separate dirt and turf nor sprints and routes. It only points out how well this runner has been running recently regardless of surface and distance. If a horse ranks high on the Prime Power rating but his last three races have been dirt sprints, it doesn’t mean very much if today’s race is nine furlongs on the grass. The same is true if the horse bled, had trouble in a race or caught a track he didn’t like (sloppy or muddy track, poor post, etc.). Be forgiving for a low ranking if the runner has not been competing at his correct distance and surface. Let’s look at the career stats box. Two stats you must consider are the "distance" stats and this runner’s stats for this track. Some horses excel at certain distances, i.e., a horse may have a record of 3 - 3 - 0 - 0 at 7 furlongs but has been running and losing at 1 1/16 miles lately. If today’s race is 7 furlongs, you may have uncovered important data. Some horse love certain tracks and can’t earn a check on other tracks. If a horse has a record of 6 - 0 - 0 - 0 over this track, you can usually eliminate that runner. Below the career stats, the BRIS Ultimate PP’s will show sire and dam statistics and sales information in all maiden and turf races. These stats can give you a big edge over other bettors. The sire statistics include the "AWD" - average winning distance - of all of the sire’s foals. An AWD of around 6.0 furlongs indicates a sprinter, whereas something near 6.7 to 6.8 f is a miler and 7.0 f or higher is a route horse. Be careful if the sire has only one or two crops to the races. These foals have not yet proven themselves, especially at longer distances. Mud% indicates the success of the sire’s foals on muddy or sloppy tracks. Ten-percent is about average while 18% or higher is outstanding. The Mud% stat is more reliable if there are at least 30 mud starts shown. If this is a turf race, you will also find the winning percentage for all of the sire’s foals on the turf and first time on the turf. 14% turf and 8% lstT (lst time turf) are average for a good turf sire. The higher the percentage, the better. Next is the sire’s "SPI" or Sire Production Index. This compares the average earnings of this sire’s foals to the national average which is an SPI of 1.00. If a sire has an SPI of 2.00, his foals have earned twice the national average. BRIS has now added stats for the dam's sire (broodmare sire). These statistics can again help you with turf and mud stats, average winning distance and the SPI (Sire Production Index) of the dam's sire. Now, lets look at the dam's statistics. BRIS has now added information as to the racing success of the dam. It will spell out if she was a stakes winner, winner, placed, unplaced or unraced. This information is only on maiden and turf races. If this is a turf race, see how many turf winners she has produced. All dam statistics are shown by number of winners rather than percentages because a mare usually produces only one foal a year while stallions may sire 40 or more foals per year. Check how many starters ("str") she has produced, number of winners ("w") and number of stakes winners ("sw"). The Dam’s Production Index ("dpi") is similar to the SPI with 1.00 being the national average. BRIS Ultimate Past Performance lines include more information than other bettors will have available. The exclusive Race Rating ("RR") refers to how tough a field actually was for that race. Not all races for $25,000 claimers are equal. The BRIS Race Rating will show you which races were stronger (the higher the number - the tougher the race). The BRIS Class Rating ("CR") measures this horse’s performance in each individual race. Concentrate on races at or near today’s distance, preferably over this race track. These two figures will help separate contenders from pretenders. The exclusive BRIS Pace Ratings is the best tool for finding the real speed in each race. Those not using these pace figs presume only horses that go right to the lead have speed. But BRIS Pace Ratings will be much more reliable. By looking at the BRIS Pace figures, you can easily determine a horse’s preferred running style and how fast they move early or late. "E1" is the first call BRIS Pace figure; "E2" is the second call figure; and "LP" is the late pace rating from the second call to the finish. One length equals two points in all BRIS Pace figures. Take a step backward and notice the letter and number in parenthesis next to this horse’s name. The letter indicates the horse’s running style (E=Early; P=Presser; S=Sustained/Closer). The numeral is the Early Speed Points with a range of 0 to 8, with 8 being the highest or fastest early speed. Obviously, if there is a lone "E8" runner, he could go to the front and never look back. If there are three or four runners are in the E6 to E8 range, then the race may set up for a come-from-behind runner. The bold number just to the right is the BRIS Speed figure. The BRIS Speed Rating already includes a track variant for that race as part of the number. So a horse that wins one 6 furlong race in 1:12 flat, can have a higher speed figure than another horse that wins in 1:11 3/5, despite the latter being a faster raw time. A 95 at Philadelphia Park is equal to a 95 at Saratoga. BRIS Speed Ratings have a progressive scale compared to beaten lengths. At 6 furlongs, one length equals 1.66 points; at 7 furlongs = 1.42 points; at 8 furlongs = 1.26 points; 9 furlongs = 1.12 points; and at 10 furlongs one length = 1 point. USING TRACK BIAS STATS & RACE SUMMARY Some tracks and turf courses have a consistent track bias but any track bias can change - depending on many factors . . . especially weather. The BRIS Track Bias Stats will point out the Running Style and Post Position bias for the meet (left side) and for the last week (right side). If there have been 5 or less races in the last week at the distance, more emphasis should be placed on the full meet stats to the left. What should jump off the page are the "+" (which indicates this stat is higher than average) or a "++" (which indicates this stat is extremely successful). Check the "% Wire" which indicates the percentage of wire to wire winners at this distance. Then check the success rate of the running styles and post positions. The Race Summary section is good to glance at to see which horses have been doing well lately. Horses with the speed figure surrounded by asterisks indicate this runner has two or more races within the last 90 days at today’s distance and surface. This is the most reliable information. Horses with parenthesis around the figure (which indicates no races within the last 90 days and/or this distance) and horses with no asterisks or parentheses (which indicate only one race within the last 90 days at this distance) need to be researched further to determine if they are a contender in today’s race. The columns below are also good references to determine contenders vs. pretenders. Glance at the columns "Speed Last Race", "Early Pace Last Race", and "Late Pace Last Race" which are for the most recent race regardless of surface and distance. If that race was at a different distance or surface, a high figure here can indicate a horse that could continue to improve. A high ranking under "Current Class", "Average Class Last 3", and "Prime Power" can also point you to the contenders.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
HELPFUL HINTS FOR USING THE
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
Comparing Single and Multiple Network Reports
Comparing Single and Multiple Network ReportsA common misunderstanding in the Neurax and Neurax Pro packages is how to compare the reports from a single network and the alternate format that print the picks of all five networks simultaneously. For clarity, all bold numbers are program numbers/post positions and all italics are finish order.
Neural Network In Use: Bravo
16-MAR-99 Race 2 at Gulfstream Park
Maiden [$25,000] race at 6 furlongs on DIRT (SPRINT)
4 yr olds only
EXACTA & TRIFECTA, SECOND HALF OF DAILY DOUBLE
Finish order (DRY track assumed):
Pgm/PP Horse Score Wodds Modds Rx Age Wgt Jockey
Win: 6 NEEDS MORE TIME 29.74 2.36 4.00 L 4g 122 COA E M
Place: 3 FOREVER REALITY 15.91 5.29 3.00 L 4g 122 FIRES E
Show: 8 TUNERUPDOC 15.53 5.44 6.00 L 4c 122 NUNEZ E O
Fourth: 9 DEFENSIVE LINE 11.21 7.92 5.00 L 4c 122 CHAVEZ J F
5th: 1 BAROMETER 7.16 12.96 20.00 L 4c 122 CASTILLO O O
6th: 10 WHIRLO 7.15 12.99 6.00 L 4g 122 BARBARAN H A
7th: 2 EL PREGONERO 4.47 21.39 8.00 4c 120 TURNER T G
8th: 7 BLADE THIRTEEN 4.46 21.41 8.00 4c 122 TORIBIO A R
9th: 5 PARQUETRY 3.91 24.60 20.00 4c 122 VELEZ R I
10th: 4 SILICA'S DREAM 3.91 24.60 15.00 L 4g 120 HOMEISTER R B JR
Here, in the single output, it is easy to see the finish order as the
horses are ordered by their scores;
16-MAR-99 Race 2 at Gulfstream Park
Maiden [$25,000] race at 6 furlongs on DIRT (SPRINT)
4 yr olds only
EXACTA & TRIFECTA, SECOND HALF OF DAILY DOUBLE
Horse ranking and scores (DRY track assumed):
Pgm/PP Horse Insight Speed Flow Bravo Gold Modds
1 BAROMETER 5- 8.54 5- 6.61 5- 8.20 5- 7.16 5- 7.97 20.00
2 EL PREGONERO 7- 4.60 8- 4.04 7- 5.99 7- 4.47 6- 5.61 8.00
3 FOREVER REALITY 3-13.51 1-22.18 3-17.01 2-15.91 3-13.42 3.00
4 SILICA'S DREAM 8- 4.54 9- 3.97 9- 4.64 10- 3.91 9- 4.43 15.00
5 PARQUETRY 10- 3.62 10- 2.68 10- 2.57 9- 3.91 10- 3.06 20.00
6 NEEDS MORE TIME 1-30.87 2-21.85 1-26.57 1-29.74 1-36.52 4.00
7 BLADE THIRTEEN 9- 3.63 7- 5.79 6- 6.68 8- 4.46 7- 4.95 8.00
8 TUNERUPDOC 2-16.84 3-17.55 2-17.48 3-15.53 2-14.90 6.00
9 DEFENSIVE LINE 4-10.25 4-15.22 4-10.79 4-11.21 4-10.45 5.00
10 WHIRLO 6- 6.85 6- 5.86 8- 4.65 6- 7.15 8- 4.53 6.00
In this report, the horses are sorted by program number/post position. The '5' in the 'Bravo' column for the one horse, Barometer, means the 'Bravo' network ranked this horse fifth, matching the single network. Similarly, if we look at the horse ranked first by the single report, Needs More Time, we find a '1' in the 'Bravo' column.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
about:reader?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brisnet.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fstatic.cgi%3Fpage%3Dincorporating_Sp1_and_dpi_into_handicapping_maiden_25Sep07
PEDIGREE HANDICAPPINGSEPTEMBER 22, 2007Incorporating SPI and DPI into handicapping maiden racesOne of the most difficult tasks that faces a handicapper is sorting out a field full of lightly raced two-year-olds. With sparse form lines, players are forced to concentrate on pedigrees, trainer angles and workouts. Possibly the quickest and easiest way to mathematically assess a runner's pedigree is by glancing at the SPI (Sire Production Index) of the horse's sire and dam's sire, and the DPI (Dam Production Index) of the subject's dam found in the BRIS Past Performances. These figures indicate the average racing class of the stallion/mare's foals by averaging the SSI (Standard Starts Index which is a numerical index based on average earnings per start of a runner) of all of his/her runners. The SSI is a useful figure which allows a comparison of racing performances of horses in North America, regardless of their year of birth or sex, since it takes into account inflation and the lower-earning potential of fillies. To illustrate the usefulness of these figures for a nine-day period (September 12-20), all two-year-old maidens making their first or second start over dirt or artificial surfaces were selected whose sire and dam's sire's SPIs and dam's DPIs met, or exceeded, the national average of 1.00. For first season sires that have not been represented by enough runners to produce a SPI, this figure was substituted by the percentage of first-time out winners representing the subject stallion, with a minimum of 10 percent used to "qualify." The second parameter was that the runner must be by a sire whose first-time starter stats met, or exceeded 10 percent which, even with second-time starters, ensures that the respective sire is passing on an acceptable level of precocity. The final requirement was that the runner's trainer must own a win rate of at least 10 percent with first, or second-time starters, whichever figure was applicable to the individual runner. This test produced a total of 59 runners. Of these, a respectable 15 (25 percent) were winners and a flat bet on each produced a very slight loss. Most of these winners were well-fancied by their connections which brings up the additional importance of paying attention to the tote board when dealing with lightly raced individuals. Indeed, 12 of these runners started at 10-1 or higher, and none returned winners. Additionally, very short-priced horses are of little use to handicappers and in this series five juveniles were bet down to odds-on. Surprisingly, although four of these finished in the money, none were winners and by removing these two groups, the sample now contained 15 wins from 42 starts (36 percent win rate), which in theory would have produced a healthy profit. Taking the figures a step further during this same time period studied, and it must be stressed that small samples must be used with care, there were six first or second-time starters seen who fit the above parameters but additionally whose sire, dam's sire and dam ranked at more than 2.00, or twice the national average. Three of these six were winners, including Referee, a first-time starter on September 14 over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Referee is by Distorted Humor (SPI 3.09) and out of Officiate (by Deputy Minister [SPI 3.89]), who owns a DPI of 8.62 due to her first foal, Mo Cuishle (Saint Ballado), winning three of her eight starts, including the Monmouth Breeders' Cup Oaks (G3). Distorted Humor's offspring have been winning at a rate of 16 percent in their debut and Pletcher owns a 19 percent win rate with his first timers. Further investigation of the past performances revealed that the debutant cost $1.2 million as a yearling, the highest price for any of his sire's offspring that year, and Referee owned a superior worktab, including two bullets at Churchill Downs. The only negative to Referee was his short price. However, it can be argued that with so many positives, and after assessing the relative weakness of the field he was facing, that the colt was still a decent bet at 1.40-1; a view which was reinforced when he won easily by nearly eight lengths. Better value was found via Devereux, a second-time starter from the barn of Steve Asmussen. After the colt made a promising debut at Saratoga, Asmussen, who scores with 24 percent of his second-time runners, entered the son of Forestry (whose ability to pass on precocity is backed up by his 12 percent first time win rate) in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont. With his sire's and dam sire's SPIs of 2.35 and 6.28, respectively, and his dam's DPI of 2.27, Devereux owned the pedigree and trainer stats to be considered a solid play, which he backed up with a three-length win and $8.80 mutuel. The third winner with high pedigree figures was the Nick Zito representative Overandabeauty (by Grand Slam [14 percent first-time out]), who scored at second asking at Belmont last Sunday at odds of 2.65-1. A decent second in her debut, Overandabeauty's pedigree figures include her dam's impressive DPI of 32.09, earned by being the mother of Tapit, who won the 2004 Wood Memorial S.(G1). Zito excels with second time starters, reflected in his win rate of 25 percent from a large sample, and Overandabeauty looked in good shape after posting a bullet work a week earlier. With an abundance of two-year-old races scheduled this Saturday, there are two runners whose pedigree stats compare favorably to the three winners mentioned above. The first is PARQUET, who will run in the 1ST race at Delaware Park. Like Devereux, Parquet is a son of Forestry and he is out of Double Sunrise (Slew O'Gold (SPI 2.76) whose DPI of 10.09 is mostly due to being the dam of 2000 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner and champion sprinter Kona Gold. A $510,000 yearling purchase, Parquet will be making her second start, at which her trainer Alan Goldberg shows a 14 percent strike-rate. The second well-bred juvenile to watch for on Saturday is VINSTAR in the 3RD at Presque Isle Downs. By Vindication, who, being a freshman sire, has not had enough runners to qualify for a SPI but owns a 23 per cent record with his first-time starters, Vinstar will be debuting for Steve Asmussen who is 20 percent in this situation. Vinstar's dam, Fashion Star (Chief's Crown 2.74 SPI), is responsible for Eddington who won the 2005 Pimlico Special H. (G1), which explains her DPI of 7.14.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
handicapping insight
Posted on October 15th, 2016