Ten Sophomore Sires for Turf
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By Brian P. Turner Nothing is more confusing to the average handicapper than when the progeny of a young sire is making its first start on the turf. Generally, the sire has yet to establish a reputation and has had so few runners try the lawn that it is difficult to determine how the youngster will handle the new surface. The confusion can result in an otherwise solid handicapper leaving out a serious contender and costing them a very healthy payoff. In an attempt to help the handicapper spot potential turf runners, we will explore a list of 10 sophomore sires that, due to the pedigree and the success of the limited numbers of runners they have had, bear consideration when their offspring show up on the grass. This is in no way meant to be an all encompassing list of second crop sires with turf potential; they are simply sires who are demonstrating potential in this arena and bare extra consideration when their progeny appear on the lawn. Spinning World has a black-type littered pedigree literally made for the turf. The 1997 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner's progeny have been living up to that expectation as they are winning at a rate of 17% on the lawn. Spinning World is by premier turf sire Nureyev and out of Imperfect Circle, who is a stakes winner on the turf and half-sister to recent Charles H. Wittingham H. (G1) hero, Denon. Her half-sister is Chimes Of Freedom, a stakes winner on the turf herself and dam of notable stakes winner Aldebaran. Though Spinning World's more successful runners have to this point been in Europe, they should at all times be treated with respect. Boston Harbor owns a sneaky pedigree for the lawn and thus his progeny are winning at a phenomenal 27% in their first turf attempt and 20% of the time overall. For those that find his statistics surprising, a closer look into his pedigree may alleviate some of the shock. Boston Harbor's dam, Harbor Springs (by solid turf sire Vice Regent), is a half sister to sprinting phenomenon Groovy, who, though he never tried the lawn himself, produces runners who win a very respectable 14% of the time on the grass. Boston Harbor's sire, Capote, counts among his siblings the excellent turf specialist Exceller and most within his family run well on the lawn. Capote's sire, Seattle Slew, was of course a very successful grass sire as well. Lost Soldier has already produced his share of stakes competitors including Lush Soldier who recently captured the Allywow S. on the grass at Woodbine. The remainder of his progeny is winning 17% of the time on the turf and 14% of the time first on the turf. Lost Soldier's dam, Lady Winborne, was stakes placed in Ireland and a half sister to Allez France, who, among her many other accolades, was Horse of the Year in France at the age of four. Of Lady Winborne's 15 foals, 13 actually made it to the track and all of those at some point found the winner's circle including six who earned their black-type. Among those stakes winners were multiple graded winners Al Mamoon and La Gueriere, both of whom enjoyed the majority of their success on the grass. Add in the fact that Lost Soldier is a son of the legendary turf sire Danzig and it is easy to see a young sire with boundless grass potential. Atticus is a son of Nureyev who showed the ability to handle both the turf and the dirt as the last two races of his career were stakes wins in the Arcadia H. (G2) on the turf and the Oaklawn H. (G1) on the dirt. His dam, Athyka, is a daughter of Secretariat and a multiple Group 2 winner in France. Though Atticus is her only stakes winner to date, many of her foals have been winners on the grass. His progeny are winning at a very respectable 16% of the time in their first turf attempts and 14% on the grass overall. His most prominent North American runner to this point is No More Chads whose best stakes effort to date came in a second place effort on the lawn at Keeneland in the Forerunner Stakes. Chequer is another on the list who may come as a surprise to many as his only graded victory came on the dirt in the W.P. Kyne H. (G3) at Bay Meadows. Still, the pedigree is one that can be successful on the turf as he is a son of the legendary Mr. Prospector and his dam, Number, is a daughter of Nijinsky 2nd and half sister to the aforementioned Nureyev. Number foaled two other stakes winners in Numerous and Jade Robbery, both full brothers to Chequer with the latter being a Group One winner on the turf in France. His progeny are currently winning 23% of the time in their first turf attempts and 25% of the time overall. Chequer's progeny may get ignored by many on the turf but they bear serious consideration. Geri never tried the lawn until late in his career but finished with a bang, capturing the Woodbine Mile (CanG1), the Citation H. (G2), and finishing second to Spinning World in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) in his final three career starts. His progeny are winning 25% of their turf races and a very solid 17% first on the turf. Geri is by legendary grass sire Theatrical (Ire) and out of Garimpeiro, a daughter of Mr. Prospector, who never had much success as a runner herself but produced four foals who were winners on the grass including Clure, a stakes winner and full brother to Geri. With in-breeding to Nearctic, Northern Dancer, Native Dancer, Natalma, and Nashua appearing in the first five generations of his pedigree, Geri definitely brings the potential for turf success. Benny The Dip is by perennial turf sire Silver Hawk and out of Rascal Rascal who is by average turf sire Ack Ack. Though she never tried the turf in her brief career, Rascal Rascal has thrown stakes winners on the lawn such as Cryptic Rascal and Beggarman Thief. Benny The Dip had only a mere 11 starts in his short career but managed in that time to compile earnings of nearly $1.5 million in Europe, winning such events as the Vodafone Derby (G1) at Epsom and the Gtech Royal Lodge S. (G2) at Ascot. To date, his runners are winning 17% of the time in their first turf attempt and 13% of the time overall on the turf. While a great number of his runners are competing in Europe, many are in North America and deserve respect anytime they are on the lawn. Native Regent, by respectable grass sire Vice Regent, was a winner of nearly $500,000 on the turf including victories in the Generous S (G3) at Hollywood and the Everglades S. at Hialeah. His dam, Barkerville Belle, was a stakes winner on the turf herself and produced another turf stakes winner in Morriston Belle who, during the course of her career, won such turf stakes as the Natalma S. at Woodbine and the Herecomesthebride S. at Gulfstream. To date, progeny of Native Regent are winning 17% of the time in their first turf attempt and 13% of the time on the turf overall. His most prominent runner to date is Native Mark, a third place finisher in the Black Gold H. on the Fair Grounds lawn this past January. Outflanker never managed to break his maiden in 10 career starts but he owns a tremendous turf pedigree and his progeny are more than making up for his short comings. Outflanker is by Danzig and his dam, the stakes placed Lassie's Lady, is a half sister to European turf star Wolfhound and to Weekend Surprise, who, in addition to being an accomplished stakes runner in her own right, is the dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. As a matter of fact, Outflanker's entire pedigree is filled with accomplished stakes winners on the turf and the dirt. His most accomplished runner to date is the stakes winning Regiment, who had reeled off three turf victories in a row before coming up a nose short in the Cinema Breeders' Cup H. (G3) last out at Hollywood Park. Cat's Career is definitely a sire to watch out for with the ever growing popularity of the turf sprint, though his progeny should be able to have an impact at the shorter route distances as well. Cat's Career was a stakes winner himself sprinting on the turf as was his half brother, Al's River Cat. The dam, Comical Cat, was stakes placed sprinting on the turf and her sire, Exceller, was of course a turf legend. Many of Comical Cat's siblings were stakes runners on the grass in Europe, including Half A Year, who won the St. James Palace S. (G2) in England before finishing her career in North America. By Mr. Prospector, Cat's Career has already produced a stakes winner sprinting on the grass in Ragin T Rex who captured the Manahttan Breeders' Cup H. at Hollywood this past June. Although there are many young sires out there whose pedigrees indicate that their progeny will run well on the lawn, these 10 have shown an inclination in that direction. Still this is only part of the equation. The rest lies in the pedigrees of the dams these sires are bred to and the ability of the trainer to recognize the grass potential in his trainee and help it flourish. In the ever difficult game of handicapping though, recognizing the turf potential of a sire is definitely a key piece of the puzzle and one that can make the difference between leaving the track with money in pocket or just losing tickets. For more information on Owner.Breeder International, a valuable publication on the world of horse racing, click on Pedigrees & Lifetime Starts at Brisnet.com. -- Brian P. Turner, of Brisnet.com, specializes in turf pedigree handicapping.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
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Winning Follows Form: A Method to Qualify Runners that are "in form" for Today’s Race "I will say with a caveat, in any sport when an athlete - and I consider Funny Cide an athlete - is in great form, they can run better than their talent level suggests that they could. Funny Cide is in good form and Empire Maker will have to bring his 'A' game if he's going to beat him." -Jerry Bailey prior to the 2003 Belmont Stakes As it turned out, whether it was a lack of pace, the wet track, or the 12 furlong distance, Funny Cide did not replicate that good form in the Belmont Stakes. But I think Bailey’s statement applies to horses every day, at every track. Some horses are improving in form, others are declining in form. A good example is Funny Cide himself. A well-beaten third in the Louisiana Derby to Peace Rules in March, he came back to run a sharp second to Empire Maker in fast time in the Wood Memorial in April, a marked improvement. Handicappers that gave him a chance to win the Kentucky Derby were rewarded with a $27.00 mutuel. He followed that up with a reasonable $5.80 payoff in the Preakness, winning by 11 lengths. Clearly, the horse that won the Preakness easily had improved a lot over the horse that ran third in the Louisiana Derby. The good news for us horseplayers is that there are several "Funny Cides" out there, at every track, every day. We just have to pay close attention to their form cycles and be patient, and we can get more than fair mutuel payoffs. The "Form Qualification Method" suggested in today’s article will put horses in several categories, in varying degrees of form and ability. The ratings, at least in my experience, work best for open claiming races and Non-winners allowance races (NW1ot, NW2ot). Interpreting Form from Past PerformancesIn Europe, the past performances do not provide pace or fractional times. In addition, race meets seldom last more than a month, in Britain much shorter than that. The only information most punters have to wager on is the finish position of horses, and any information they can glean from horses working out "on the gallops,", to see which horses are holding or improving form. While I think we are better off in the U.S. with all our databases of speed figures, pace figures, class figures and trainer data, I will provide examples where current form in this country was underbet. We will be using demonstrated early speed and finish position/beaten lengths to credit horses with good performances. Many times, the horses that "qualify" are not top speed figure horses, or top pace figure horses. Often the method will identify 3 or 4 horses that qualify on current form. Usually 2 horses will be among the top 3 choices and 1 or 2 horses will be over 5 to 1. It is up to the bettor to make the correct final wagering decision(s). It should be noted that all the examples cited in this article were chosen off the form method, not speed or pace figures. The Critical Importance of the Trainer and Early SpeedWe are going to rely on the trainer of the horse to give us the final clues on the horse in today’s race. We will use four rules:
Besides Funny Cide’s big win, the story (to me) was how several horses jumped up the "class ladder" to make an impact in several stakes Preakness Week.
It stands to reason that a lightly raced horse coming off a good win is ALWAYS dangerous in allowance company. Belmont Park, Race 6, May 29: Chilly Rooster was just such a lightly raced horse. Coming off a 9-length maiden-breaker for Allen Jerkens going 7f at Aqu, stretching out to 8.5 furlongs and an extremely generous morning line of 6/1, he seemed like a very solid play. The Rooster did not disappoint, contesting the lead early, opening up 5 in the stretch and winning by 2 ¾ lengths, paying $7.70 as the tepid favorite. In general, this type of horse comes around a few times a month. Just be ready, as they win quite often, even on the class jump. Classifying Horses on Form 2: Claiming-horse Big WinnersIt has been my experience that a claiming horse, perhaps demonstrating improved current form, wins big in claiming company, and then steps it up and wins again, paying a nice mutuel. Lone Star, Race 8, May 22: Crab Creek, off a brief freshening, won a $10,000N3L claimer by 5 lengths April 30. Entered in a TX-bred NW1ot allowance, he was the 5/2 ML favorite but paid $10.00, prevailing in a 3-way photo. Churchill Downs, Race 9, June 6: Banned in Boston, a chronic loser sprinting against MSW types, was dropped to $50k maiden claiming May 22 at CD, winning by 4. Entered right back against turf routers in a NW1ot, he looked like a potential lone speed horse, and that big win could have been a confidence booster. It may well have been, as Banned in Boston went wire to wire to win by 8 lengths in his grass debut, paying $21.80. Lone Star, Race 5, May 30: Bupper had won sharply going 7f, winning by 3 ½ lengths over his $5,000 claiming competition. Stepped up to $6,250, he won again despite a bumpy start, paying $14.20 and keying a $71.20 exacta. Classifying Horses on Form 3: Close at the LevelAn example of "Close at the Level" is a horse that ran second or third, beaten less than 2 lengths, while showing tactical speed, and is at that same level today. Generally this type of horse does not throw big profits and is often favored, but occasionally one slips through the cracks. Churchill Downs, Race 8, May 30: Molto Vita was 2/1 in her previous start, and she ran a solid second, beaten 1¾ lengths. Back at the same level, the favorite didn’t fire, but Molto Vita did, splitting horses in deep stretch to win, paying $15. Classifying Horses on Form 4: Speed on the DropI realize I am not the first person to advocate this angle (in fact, I heard Corey Black on TVG advocate a version of it just last week), but it works for several reasons and I’ll give a few rules and examples.
The bad finish position allows the trainer to enter the horse at a much lower level and minimize the risk of getting the horse claimed. The horse can now show speed against a lower level of competition and may be able to run a big race. And finally the poor last-out finish scares off many bettors and presents juicy odds. Churchill Downs, Race 5, May 31: Catchy Word showed early speed going 2 turns in NW3ot allowance races but was consistently beaten. Dropped way down to $40k claiming, he was taken off the pace, circled the leaders at the 1/8 pole, and won by a head over the consistent Dillonmyboy, paying $19.60 to win and keying a $94.00 exacta. Churchill Downs, Race 2, June 6: Refax had shown some speed at Prairie Meadows on May 10, beaten 36 lengths in an NW1ot allowance race, and now was at CD facing $20k claiming NW2L horses, much softer competition. She pressed the early pace, put the other speed away at the ¼ pole, and hung on to win by a neck, paying $24.20 while keying a $78 exacta and a $229 pick 3 (for $1). Summary Horses can show signs of positive form in the past performances. Combined with early speed, improving form can lead to solid win selections and very good prices at the windows. A combination Early Speed/Class Drop "long shot play" method was also presented. -- Tony Kelzenberg is a long time Brisnet.com member who relies on BRIS performance ratings in his handicapping.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
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Winning Follows Form: A Method to Qualify Runners that are "in form" for Today’s Race "I will say with a caveat, in any sport when an athlete - and I consider Funny Cide an athlete - is in great form, they can run better than their talent level suggests that they could. Funny Cide is in good form and Empire Maker will have to bring his 'A' game if he's going to beat him." -Jerry Bailey prior to the 2003 Belmont Stakes As it turned out, whether it was a lack of pace, the wet track, or the 12 furlong distance, Funny Cide did not replicate that good form in the Belmont Stakes. But I think Bailey’s statement applies to horses every day, at every track. Some horses are improving in form, others are declining in form. A good example is Funny Cide himself. A well-beaten third in the Louisiana Derby to Peace Rules in March, he came back to run a sharp second to Empire Maker in fast time in the Wood Memorial in April, a marked improvement. Handicappers that gave him a chance to win the Kentucky Derby were rewarded with a $27.00 mutuel. He followed that up with a reasonable $5.80 payoff in the Preakness, winning by 11 lengths. Clearly, the horse that won the Preakness easily had improved a lot over the horse that ran third in the Louisiana Derby. The good news for us horseplayers is that there are several "Funny Cides" out there, at every track, every day. We just have to pay close attention to their form cycles and be patient, and we can get more than fair mutuel payoffs. The "Form Qualification Method" suggested in today’s article will put horses in several categories, in varying degrees of form and ability. The ratings, at least in my experience, work best for open claiming races and Non-winners allowance races (NW1ot, NW2ot). Interpreting Form from Past PerformancesIn Europe, the past performances do not provide pace or fractional times. In addition, race meets seldom last more than a month, in Britain much shorter than that. The only information most punters have to wager on is the finish position of horses, and any information they can glean from horses working out "on the gallops,", to see which horses are holding or improving form. While I think we are better off in the U.S. with all our databases of speed figures, pace figures, class figures and trainer data, I will provide examples where current form in this country was underbet. We will be using demonstrated early speed and finish position/beaten lengths to credit horses with good performances. Many times, the horses that "qualify" are not top speed figure horses, or top pace figure horses. Often the method will identify 3 or 4 horses that qualify on current form. Usually 2 horses will be among the top 3 choices and 1 or 2 horses will be over 5 to 1. It is up to the bettor to make the correct final wagering decision(s). It should be noted that all the examples cited in this article were chosen off the form method, not speed or pace figures. The Critical Importance of the Trainer and Early SpeedWe are going to rely on the trainer of the horse to give us the final clues on the horse in today’s race. We will use four rules:
Besides Funny Cide’s big win, the story (to me) was how several horses jumped up the "class ladder" to make an impact in several stakes Preakness Week.
It stands to reason that a lightly raced horse coming off a good win is ALWAYS dangerous in allowance company. Belmont Park, Race 6, May 29: Chilly Rooster was just such a lightly raced horse. Coming off a 9-length maiden-breaker for Allen Jerkens going 7f at Aqu, stretching out to 8.5 furlongs and an extremely generous morning line of 6/1, he seemed like a very solid play. The Rooster did not disappoint, contesting the lead early, opening up 5 in the stretch and winning by 2 ¾ lengths, paying $7.70 as the tepid favorite. In general, this type of horse comes around a few times a month. Just be ready, as they win quite often, even on the class jump. Classifying Horses on Form 2: Claiming-horse Big WinnersIt has been my experience that a claiming horse, perhaps demonstrating improved current form, wins big in claiming company, and then steps it up and wins again, paying a nice mutuel. Lone Star, Race 8, May 22: Crab Creek, off a brief freshening, won a $10,000N3L claimer by 5 lengths April 30. Entered in a TX-bred NW1ot allowance, he was the 5/2 ML favorite but paid $10.00, prevailing in a 3-way photo. Churchill Downs, Race 9, June 6: Banned in Boston, a chronic loser sprinting against MSW types, was dropped to $50k maiden claiming May 22 at CD, winning by 4. Entered right back against turf routers in a NW1ot, he looked like a potential lone speed horse, and that big win could have been a confidence booster. It may well have been, as Banned in Boston went wire to wire to win by 8 lengths in his grass debut, paying $21.80. Lone Star, Race 5, May 30: Bupper had won sharply going 7f, winning by 3 ½ lengths over his $5,000 claiming competition. Stepped up to $6,250, he won again despite a bumpy start, paying $14.20 and keying a $71.20 exacta. Classifying Horses on Form 3: Close at the LevelAn example of "Close at the Level" is a horse that ran second or third, beaten less than 2 lengths, while showing tactical speed, and is at that same level today. Generally this type of horse does not throw big profits and is often favored, but occasionally one slips through the cracks. Churchill Downs, Race 8, May 30: Molto Vita was 2/1 in her previous start, and she ran a solid second, beaten 1¾ lengths. Back at the same level, the favorite didn’t fire, but Molto Vita did, splitting horses in deep stretch to win, paying $15. Classifying Horses on Form 4: Speed on the DropI realize I am not the first person to advocate this angle (in fact, I heard Corey Black on TVG advocate a version of it just last week), but it works for several reasons and I’ll give a few rules and examples.
The bad finish position allows the trainer to enter the horse at a much lower level and minimize the risk of getting the horse claimed. The horse can now show speed against a lower level of competition and may be able to run a big race. And finally the poor last-out finish scares off many bettors and presents juicy odds. Churchill Downs, Race 5, May 31: Catchy Word showed early speed going 2 turns in NW3ot allowance races but was consistently beaten. Dropped way down to $40k claiming, he was taken off the pace, circled the leaders at the 1/8 pole, and won by a head over the consistent Dillonmyboy, paying $19.60 to win and keying a $94.00 exacta. Churchill Downs, Race 2, June 6: Refax had shown some speed at Prairie Meadows on May 10, beaten 36 lengths in an NW1ot allowance race, and now was at CD facing $20k claiming NW2L horses, much softer competition. She pressed the early pace, put the other speed away at the ¼ pole, and hung on to win by a neck, paying $24.20 while keying a $78 exacta and a $229 pick 3 (for $1). Summary Horses can show signs of positive form in the past performances. Combined with early speed, improving form can lead to solid win selections and very good prices at the windows. A combination Early Speed/Class Drop "long shot play" method was also presented. -- Tony Kelzenberg is a long time Brisnet.com member who relies on BRIS performance ratings in his handicapping.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
A Funny Cide Thing
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A Funny 'Cide' Thing A funny thing happened during the running of the 129th Kentucky Derby. The "thing" is not that the supposedly superior Empire Maker was beaten by the double-digit longshot Funny Cide. The funny "thing" is that the results were predictable. Read on. Recall Affirmed running and winning all three of the 1978 Triple Crown races. You may even recollect that Alydar ran second in each race. Obviously, Affirmed was faster than Alydar. But was he? Perhaps Funny Cide is faster than Empire Maker. But is he? After reading the rest of this article you will conclude that Alydar was the faster horse (and that he deserved higher speed ratings than those published). You will also be able to make an informed decision about when a funny "thing" will happen at your favorite track. The competition between the two great three year olds of 1978 documents the funny "thing" which when ignored is a serious disadvantage to horseplayers. Speed rating adjustments (reward/penalty) are suggested to identify this handicapping oversight and turn it into an advantage. These adjustments confirm the superiority of your selection and uncover overlay winners and higher odds horses to use in exotic combinations. The obvious results are an improved return on investment. Some questions: Are outside post positions a disadvantage to a horse? Does this apparent disadvantage more correctly result from how far a horse is from the rail when it gets to the turn? What is the disadvantage of racing wide in a turn? Can this disadvantage be predicted by pace and running style and then quantified in speed rating points? And, how can knowledge of this disadvantage be turned into a betting advantage? HIGH SCHOOL MATH Remember high school math and solving problems relating to lengths of sides of a triangle? Recall the Pythagorean Theorem that allows that the length of the side opposite a 90 degree ("right") angle is equal to the square root of the sum of the square of the sides making that right angle.Now visualize a right triangle with the side making the right angle the distance from the center of post position one (PP1) of the starting gate to the first turn (usually somewhat over 1000 feet). The other side is the distance from the center of PP1 to post position 5 (PP5). The distance between each post position of a starting gate is 3.5 feet (I’ve measured it). Therefore, the length of this side of the triangle is 3.5 feet times 4 (the distance from the middle of PP1 to the middle of PP5) or 14 feet. Thus the distance to the turn for the PP5 horse is the square root of the sum of the square of the distance to the first turn from the center of PP1 plus the square of 14 feet. A small survey of several tracks determined that the distance from the starting gate to the turn ranged from a reported 1320 feet at Hollywood to 2010 feet at Emerald Downs. Solving the equation for PP5 at Hollywood and at Emerald Downs yields the distances of 1320.07 feet and 2010.05 feet respectively. PP12 is 38.5 (11 times 3.5) feet from PP1. The distances to the turn for PP12 are 1320.56 feet (Hol) and 2010.37 (Emd) feet. Although highly unlikely at either track, PP16’s distances are 1321.04 and 2010.68. Clearly; regardless of post position number (PPN), there is hardly more than a foot of difference (at Hol -- 1320.00 - 1321.04 or 1.04 feet and at Emd -- 2010.00 - 2010.68 or 0.68 feet) in the distance any horse travels when racing to the turn. Disadvantage? The numbers don’t support any. Still, horseplayers insist that a horse with a higher (outside) PPN is at a disadvantage. High school math can not only identify, but seemingly quantify the horse’s very real disadvantage. Recall that the circumference (the distance around) of a circle is equal to two times the radius (the distance from its center to the outside edge) of a circle multiplied by the constant 3.14159 (known as "pi"). Affirmed and Alydar ran joined at the hip for the final 7/8ths of a mile during the 1978 Belmont Stakes. This included the final turn (half the circumference of a circle). Assume that 3.5 feet (recall the starting gate) was the distance between the centers of the two horses. The radius of Alydar’s circle on the outside was this 3.5 feet longer than that of Affirmed on the rail. Use any radius you choose and the result will always be that the outside horse has to run 3.5 feet times pi or about 11 feet further than the inside horse. Alydar had to run these 11 "extra" feet to remain even with Affirmed when both horses exited the turn and began their historic stretch drive. If the distance between the center of this pair had been 4.5 feet, then the "extra" distance would have been 14 feet. Three horses side by side require the outside horse to run 25 feet further than the inside horse. Assume that the "length" of a thoroughbred is about eight and a half feet. Then the "first over" outside horse is at a disadvantage of 1.3 to almost 1.7 lengths to the inside horse and a disadvantage of 3 lengths or more for the three wide ("3w" in the chart’s comments) horse. ALYDAR WAS FASTER What does this have to do with Affirmed and Alydar? The tapes of their 1978 Triple Crown races will confirm that Alydar was "first over" for at least one turn during each race. The Kentucky Derby charts state that Alydar "commenced to advance from the outside after six furlongs, continued wide in the stretch, swerved to bump ...." The Preakness charts note that Alydar "advanced willingly outside of horses in backstretch, engaged Affirmed well out from the rail...." Alydar ran at least 3 times the 11 extra feet further (perhaps twice this number) than the rail hugging Affirmed. The charts document that Affirmed took a total of 6:22 2/5 to run the three races and that Alydar’s total losing distance was less than two lengths. Do the math (speed equals distance divided by time). With the times being all but identical and Alydar covering much more than 4 lengths further, Alydar was the faster horse. As with all horses that do not go "wire to wire" on the rail, Alydar’s true speed ratings were reported lower than earned as the total distance he ran was ignored. Using low speed ratings places a horseplayer at a very serious disadvantage.EMPIRE MAKER FASTER? The summary of the running of the 129th Kentucky Derby notes that both Funny Cide and Empire Maker were both a little wide in the early going with Funny Cide then edging nearer the inside while "Empire Maker ... was six or seven wide during the early stages, ... continued five wide on the backstretch and into the far turn, advanced steadily five wide leaving the three-eights pole... and wasn’t good enough." Consider the five wide (backstretch -- far turn -- to the three-eights pole) as 55 "extra" feet. These six "extra" lengths confirmed that Empire Maker was more than good enough to win, but he didn’t -- and for many it was a disappointment.DISAPPOINTMENT PREDICTED Empire Maker’s lack of early pace and an outside post position in a large field suggested that his speed ratings should be reduced because of the strong likelihood that he would be forced to go around slower horses. This predictable reduction resulted in a slight speed rating advantage for Funny Cide and with his higher odds he became the selection. When the race was run, Empire Maker’s disadvantage was even worse than predicted and he "wasn’t good enough." If the 2003 Belmont Stakes has a small field, Empire Maker will be "good enough." Can this disadvantage be turned into an advantage (can a funny "thing" be identified)? It can, especially for the handicapper willing to adjust reported speed ratings to get an edge on those that do not.. For better or worse, reported speed ratings are based solely on final times. This time is compared to the best time run at the track at that distance within the last three years. The difference in fifths of a second is then subtracted from 100 (example: 3 seconds is 15 fifths producing a speed rating of 85). This figure usually is accompanied by a subjectively determined "variant" that accounts for the condition of the running surface. Other arguably more accurate methods compare the final time to an objectively determined "par" for that particular type of race.SIMPLY ADJUST Surely these speed ratings can be adjusted to a number that would more accurately reflect the real speed of a horse (such as Alydar). The easiest approach is to simply add (reward) or subtract (penalize) speed rating points to those you presently use. Basic mathematics has quantified some useable figures. Above it was suggested to add 3 points for a 3w horse (a 4w horse would receive a 4 point reward). A caution -- "fanned out" or "swung" 4w does not justify the full 4 points as the horse was not 4w for the entire turn. Since the horse was probably 2 or 3 wide to allow it to fan out or swing 4w or even 5w, a reward of 2 or 3 speed rating points is fully justified.Unfortunately, not all comment lines include information translatable to speed rating point adjustments. Shedding light on or perhaps further complicating the reward/penalty issue are the legitimate considerations of total number of runners, numbers of expected front runners, a horse’s PPN (recall the comments relative to going wide into the turn), and the horse’s running style. RUNNING STYLES There are handicapping services that classify a horse’s running style as front runner, those close up, those that usually close to contend, or a combination of two styles. Some services provide "pace" figures. (More on these later in this article.) A somewhat skilled handicapper could make these classifications and approximate pace figures by examining past performance data such as times and beaten lengths at selected points ("fractional calls") in a race. Obviously, horses behind others going into a turn must go around them -- usually. Sometimes they find a "hole" in the middle of the pack and sometimes that hole is on the rail. If the horse is to win or at least to contend, percentages can be estimated regarding the manner of how this could happen. Perhaps on the dirt the horse has to go around (wide) about 65% of the time, between horses about 15% of the time, and up the rail 20% of the time. For turf races in might be 70% around (wide), 10% between, and 20% up the rail. Make your own percentages and adjust.PACE Pace figures provided, usually at a cost, by handicapping services resemble speed rating numbers. Some provide pace ratings at several points of call throughout a race. If not included, beaten lengths must be deducted, usually on a 1:1 basis (that is, 2 lengths out of the lead reduces a pace rating by 2 points). By comparing the first call pace number of today’s runners, front runners (based on times and not position) can easily be identified. By comparing all first call pace figures to the highest pace figure, horses that will probably be within say 3 points (lengths) in a sprint and 5 in a route would be labeled front runners. Closers are those horses with pace numbers more than 5 points lower than the highest number in a sprint and 7 lower in a route.WHAT IFS Let's suppose today’s horse was the only front runner in the race. Like Affirmed, it has the shortest distance to run as it will surely be in front and on the rail for the entire race. It must be rewarded for this circumstance by adding as much as 2 points to its speed rating in a sprint and about 1 point in a route. If several front runners (less that 25% of the number of runners) are expected, this reward (given to all) should be cut in half. When many front runners are expected (25% - 50% of the runners), a penalty of almost a point should be assessed to each. Somewhere it has been reported that if a two horse speed duel develops, 44% of the time one of the dueling horses will win the race. So over half the time, neither one of them does.Skipping past the "close up" runners to the "closers", penalties are suggested (focusing first on sprint races) based on the number of expected closers. For a small field, the penalty is small enough to be ignored. For fields of 5 to 8 horses, a penalty of 0.5 is suggested. For nine to 12 runners, a 0.8 penalty; and for fields greater than 12, a 1.3 point penalty. Closers in a route race incur more of a penalty for going wide. In a short field, 1.6 points is appropriate. For fields of five to eight, about 1.9 points; and any field exceeding 9, a 2.1 point penalty.More severe penalties were calculated and would not be inappropriate. These suggested penalties incorporated the probabilities presented earlier and considered both turns of a route. SUMMARY The serious disadvantage to a horse drawing a high post position has been shown not to be the distance to the turn, but rather the high probability of being wide into and through the turn. This disadvantage was quantified and a reward/penalty approach to changing speed rating numbers to the advantage of the horseplayer was advanced. Both the simplified "reward for wide" and the "what ifs" approaches produce seemingly small changes to a speed rating. But a couple of points equates to a couple of lengths and to wins at nice prices as other bettors neglect the quantifiable dynamics of early speed and going wide -- a funny "thing."AIN’T COMPUTERS WONDERFUL A computer is a great tool for comparing horses in any given race. Very sophisticated algorithms can be developed to assign reward/penalty points to a horse’s speed rating based on post position, number of runners and their pace. A simple task for a computer is to "normalize" reported speed ratings for weight carried in previous as well as in today’s race. Using consensual weighting and involved lookup tables, two turn reward/penalty adjustments can be instantly incorporated into a speed rating and combined with other selected factors. There are handicapping services that employ these techniques for a fee. This writer developed and started using such an algorithm about two years ago and has stayed ahead of the horses...just barely!-- Walter Seip is a retired US Army Colonel, is an engineer with advanced degrees, and lives in Las Vegas where he has won several local handicapping tournaments and hit the board in many others. BRIS (Brisnet.com) has been his source of handicapping data since 1998. @copyright, SEIP Ventures May 2003. All Rights Reserved.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
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Early Speed Going Long – A Method to Profit? "Luck goes to those with speed." "Speed kills in football. Speed kills in horse racing." I think everyone reading this article understands that early speed is critical in sprint races. What I am going to present today are some rules and concepts using ‘early speed’ to find value in 2-turn route races on the dirt. The data used will come directly from the Brisnet.com "Ultimate PP’s." In particular, we are going to focus on "Early-type" route horses that are either E-horses (front-runners) or E/P horses (very close to the pace). Background
The Method in Action on the Triple Crown Trail (March 15 and 16, 2003) Florida Derby: Trust N Luck was the lone speed in the Fountain of Youth in February, 2003. He got little respect, despite a 110 Beyer at Calder in December, and went off at 9-2 odds. Breaking from his 6th post position, with a solid trainer, jockey, and proven record, he was an excellent bet that day, drawing off to win by 5 lengths over an overmatched field. The key number was Trust N Luck got the first ¼ mile in 23 3/5. In the Florida Derby, Trust N Luck was still lone speed, but now he was at 4-5 odds. Plus he was facing several new shooters in Empire Maker, Indy Dancer and Senor Swinger. Add in Bobby Frankel’s comments that "Empire Maker would be at Trust N Luck’s throat" with blinkers added and things did not bode well for Trust N Luck in the Florida Derby. Trust N Luck was pressed through a much faster first quarter (22 3/5) and "never got a breather," according to jockey Cornelio Velasquez. This is an example of how the favorite can get pressed on the lead. Empire Maker came up to Trust N Luck and blew past him, winning by nearly 10 lengths. It would be charitable to say Trust N Luck was a bad bet at 4-5, and maybe even a terrible one.
Gotham: Due to inclement weather, the Gotham was run around 2 turns. There were 3 legit speed horses:
No matter how you cut it, Alysweep and/or Torre and Zim figure to dominate the race. Case closed. The only question is if Alysweep and Torre and Zim will get into a speed duel, but in this case I say take your chances because the value was there. If you are a pick 3/pick 4/pick 6 bettor, I would recommend you use both of our top horses. You might also want to consider using both horses in an exacta box. Since the odds are so high overall, I would also recommend betting all three speed horses to win. If "Mustbe" got loose early (let’s say Alysweep broke poorly), his speed figures were competitive with everybody else in the field. Result: Alysweep went wire to wire, winning by 4 and paying $21.00. Torre and Zim made a challenge at the ¼ pole and faded. Betting $2 to win on all three of our speed horses would have netted +$15.00. Santa Anita Derby: The betting in this race was very strange, because the closers took all the money. Here are the speed horses:
Note first that there are no "E" horses. There are all E/P. This means there are no "speed crazy" horses in here, aiding to the chances of the speed horses to win. The most likely leader was Siberland, with his 8 speed points, but his pace figures in his last race were poor and he came from Turf Paradise, making him an unlikely winner of a Grade 2 race at Santa Anita. Buckland Manor is bred for turf and is also unlikely. That leaves Buddy Gill and Brancusi. Buddy Gill came off a turf sprint, but had a dirt pedigree and had a 57.4 work prior to the race. Brancusi’s last race is very competitive on both speed and pace and is monster odds. Both Buddy Gill and Brancusi should be used. Here are the top 3 closers:
I think this race shows people were betting on emotion and not "on the numbers." Domestic Dispute was the slowest horse of the top six contenders, by whatever metric, and was coming off a 2- month layoff. And he’s the 2-1 favorite. Man Among Men and Domestic Dispute were the 2 fastest horses (final speed) in the race, but figured to get caught behind a moderate pace. Betting/Result: I have to admit I really screwed this one up. I "fell in love" with Man Among Men at 5-2 odds, using the logic he was the best horse because he beat Peace Rules and Empire Maker. Bad mistake. When one has a solid method and it gives you solid returns, stick with the method, especially when the odds are so well stacked in your favor. Siberland went to the front (as could be predicted), but he packed it in on the turn (also relatively predictable). Brancusi (my second pick) took over and looked like the winner inside the sixteenth pole, but he got a little tired, getting passed by winner Buddy Gill (paying $21.60) and the hard-closing Atswhatimtalknbout, who may have been best. A $1 tri box using the two top speed horses and the top 2 closers would have cost $24 and returned $1,475.90. Betting $2 to win on all 4 speed horses would have netted +$13.60. Summary A method for identifying live long shots using early speed in 2-turn route races was identified. The method was based on early speed horses getting a "soft" first quarter mile going into the first turn. The method was shown to be successful in identifying win candidates in the Gotham and the San Felipe stakes. A flat bet on all "overlaid" early speed horses in 2-turn route races shows the potential for profit. -- Tony Kelzenberg is a long time Brisnet.com member who relies on BRIS performance ratings in his handicapping.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
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Using Prime Power
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
BRIS SPEED RATINGS F.A.Q.BRIS Speed Ratings are based on a variation of the "projection method" which some other popular speed figures are based. Unlike others, BRIS uses an objective, computer precise method to make the final time projections rather than using the subjective opinion of one handicapper. The past performances of every horse competing in a given field is examined with the painstaking detail only a computer can do. The projections generated by Bloodstock Research's computer system are based on proprietary techniques and algorithms which have been rigorously tested and long proven over hundreds of thousands of races. This computer precision enables the BRIS Speed Ratings to use the most accurate projections and variants possible.
ARE BRIS SPEED RATINGS COMPARABLE ACROSS DIFFERENT TRACKS ?
HOW MANY SPEED POINTS REPRESENT ONE LENGTH ?
CAN BRIS SPEED RATINGS BE COMPARED FROM DIFFERING DISTANCES ?
WHAT ARE SOME TYPICAL SPEED RATINGS FOR 3&UP MALES? BRIS
SPEED
A typical Grade I stakes winner .................... 106
A typical "OPEN" Claiming $10,000 winner ........... 88
A typical Maiden Claiming $10,000 winner ........... 75
A typical winning Grade I stakes older male horse will earn a BRIS
Speed Rating of 106 or thereabout. Of course, these horses will often
earn speed ratings much higher in their very best efforts. "Cigar" has
earned speed ratings as high as 117.
Other F.A.Q. Reports The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
BRIS RACE & CLASS RATINGS F.A.Q.A RACE RATING measures the overall quality of horses which actually competed in a race - the higher the number, the tougher the competition. A CLASS RATING measures a horse's actual performance in a race - the higher the number, the better the performance.
WHO CREATES THE RACE & CLASS RATINGS ?
WHAT IS THE THEORY UNDERLYING THE RACE & CLASS RATINGS?
HOW ARE THE RACE & CLASS RATINGS CALCULATED ?
HOW SHOULD A HANDICAPPER USE THE RACE & CLASS RATINGS ?
The CLASS Ratings provide a convenient means for comparing the relative merits of each horse's recent races to that of it's competitors. Want to catch more winners? Begin incorporating the BRIS CLASS Ratings into your handicapping. One of the great benefits of using them is you'll spot winning horses which the speed handicappers miss. Look for the horse with the highest recent class ratings. You'll be amazed how many more tickets you'll cash.
HOW MANY POINTS ARE CONSIDERED A "SIGNIFICANT" EDGE IN THE CLASS RATINGS ?
WHAT ARE SOME TYPICAL RACE & CLASS RATINGS FOR 3&UP MALES ? Race Winner's
Rating Class Rating
An average Grade I stakes race ............ 120 123
An average "OPEN" Claiming $10,000 race ... 112 115
An average Maiden Claiming $10,000 race ... 105 108
The best races (Grade 1 older stakes males) will typically receive
a RACE RATING in the 120-125 range. And the winner of these races will
typically earn a CLASS RATING in the 123 to 127 range.
A $10,000 "Open" Claiming race for older males will typically receive a RACE RATING in the 111-112 range. And the winner of these races will typically earn a CLASS RATING in the 114 to 115 range. A $10,000 Maiden Claiming race for older males will typically receive a RACE RATING in the 105-106 range. And the winner of these races will typically earn a CLASS RATING in the 108-109 range. Other F.A.Q. Reports The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
The Handicapper's Library
BRIS PACE RATINGS F.A.Q.BRIS Pace Ratings measure how fast a horse ran up to a specific point-of-call (2f,4f,6f,...) in a race - the higher the number, the faster the horse ran. 2f Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start
to the 1/4 mile call. (2f)
4f Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start
to the 1/2 mile call. (4f)
6f Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start
to the 3/4 mile call. (6f)
E1 Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start
to the 1st call (2f Pace in sprints, 4f Pace
in most routes).
E2 Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the start
to the 2nd call (4f Pace in sprints, 6f Pace
in most routes).
Late Pace Rating - rates how fast the horse ran from the 2nd call
(pre-stretch call) to the finish.
ARE BRIS PACE RATINGS COMPARABLE ACROSS DIFFERENT TRACKS ?
Yes. Since the ratings are "fully adjusted" ( reflecting both daily and track-to-track variants), they are comparable across all North American racetracks.
HOW ARE THE BRIS PACE RATINGS CALCULATED ?
WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BRIS PACE RATINGS AND
THE BRIS SPEED RATINGS ?
WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BRIS PACE RATINGS AND
"QUIRIN" STYLE PACE RATINGS ?
When a sprinter stretches out or a route horse shortens up, Quirin style pace ratings systematically underates the demonstrated early speed of all sprinters and overates the demonstrated early speed of all routers. To accurately measure the demonstrated early speed of any horse at any distance, the BRIS Pace Ratings reflect exactly how fast the horse ran - regardless of race distance. Therefore, unlike Quirin style pace ratings, a horse who ran an adjusted time of :45 flat for the 1/2 in a 6 furlong sprint earns the same 4f pace rating as a horse who ran an adjusted time of :45 flat for the 1/2 in a 1 1/16 mile race.
HOW CAN I CALCULATE "TURN TIME" USING THE BRIS PACE RATINGS ?
BRIS Turn Time = E2 Pace Rating - E1 Pace Rating
or
BRIS Turn Time (sprint) = 4f Pace Rating - 2f Pace Rating
or
BRIS Turn Time (route) = 6f Pace Rating - 4f Pace Rating
For example:
BRIS PACE TURN
E1 E2 ( E2 - E1 ) TIME
HORSE "A" 90 96 ( 96 - 90) = +6
HORSE "B" 92 96 ( 96 - 92) = +4
HORSE "C" 96 96 ( 96 - 96) = +0
HORSE "D" 100 100 (100 - 100) = +0
Horse "A" has the fastest turn time (+6) which is one length (2 points)
faster than Horse "B" (+4).
Also, note that HORSE "C" & "D" have the same turn time (+0). Horse "D" (E1=100) ran 2 lengths (4 points) faster up to the 1st call than Horse "C" (E1= 96) but Horse "D" (E2=100) was still 2 lengths faster up to the 2nd call than than Horse "C" (E2= 96). Therefore, Horse "C" and Horse "D" ran the same speed between the first two calls. WHAT ARE SOME TYPICAL PACE/SPEED RATINGS FOR 3&UP MALES ? PACE RATING BRIS
E1 E2/LATE SPEED
Grade I stakes pacesetter/winner (SPRINT) ........ 99 109/ 94 106
"OPEN" Claiming $10k pacesetter/winner (SPRINT) .. 94 98/ 84 88
Maiden Claiming $10k pacesetter/winner (SPRINT) .. 90 89/ 77 75
Grade I stakes pacesetter/winner (ROUTE) ......... 95 106/101 106
"OPEN" Claiming $10k pacesetter/winner (ROUTE) ... 86 88/ 87 88
Maiden Claiming $10k pacesetter/winner (ROUTE) ... 80 75/ 77 75
Other F.A.Q. Reports
The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.
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Posted on October 15th, 2016
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=raceshapes_lib
WHAT ARE THE BRIS RACE SHAPES? The BRIS Race Shapes measure how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race's final time. The faster the leader's pace, the higher the BRIS Race Shape (eg. +7). The slower the leader's pace, the lower the BRIS Race Shape (eg. -7). HOW SHOULD THE BRIS RACE SHAPES BE USED AS A HANDICAPPING TOOL? There are a variety of ways to benefit from using the BRIS Race Shapes. A primary use of the BRIS Race Shapes is to quickly identify horses which were advantaged/disadvantaged by unusually fast or slow paced races. Generally speaking, horses with a late running style want a fast pace upfront to be most effective. And, conversely, horses with an early running style want a softer pace to be most effective. So, whenever a pace is unusually fast or slow, evaluate whether the horse was advantaged or disadvantaged by the pace. Anticipate possible improvement from horses which were disadvantaged by the pace of their recent races, and view skeptically the performances of horses which were advantaged by the pace of their recent races. WHY ARE THERE TWO BRIS RACE SHAPE VALUES? The BRIS Race Shapes correspond to the first and second calls of a race. The first BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the first call (2f call for most sprints; and 4f call for most routes). The second BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the second call (4f call for most sprints; and 6f call for most routes). This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time). ARE THE BRIS RACE SHAPES ON THE SAME SCALE AS THE BRIS PACE RATINGS? Yes, like the BRIS Pace Ratings, the BRIS Race Shapes use a fixed scale of two (2) points-per-length. For example, a "+6" Race Shape represents a pace which is three (3) lengths faster than normal. IS THERE AN ADDITIONAL CHARGE FOR THE BRIS RACE SHAPES? No, there is no additional charge. BRIS Race Shapes are included in BRIS'S Premium and Ultimate PP's (condensed versions excluded).
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Posted on October 15th, 2016