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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 5 Covers Staff
Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 5
Covers Staff
Sep 30, 2016
Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett has 10 touchdowns and only one interception, a big reason why the Buckeyes lead the nation with a plus-9 turnover margin.
We're on to Week 5 of the college football season and the full slate of games can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.
No. 21 Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores (+9.5, 40.5)
* Even with last week’s meltdown, the Gators still lead the SEC in total defense (221.8 yard per game, fourth nationally) and are allowing a league-best 13 points per game. Appleby, a fifth-year senior transfer from Purdue, completed 23-of-39 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns at Tennessee as Del Rio recovers from a knee injury. Better offensive line play also is needed this week, after the Gators rushed for just 19 yards on 13 attempts in the second half last week.
* Quarterback Kyle Shurmur played well down the stretch in the Commodores' rally, going 8-for-12 for 155 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime. Webb leads the SEC in rushing (472 yards) and is ninth nationally after rushing for 95 yards and three touchdowns last week. Vanderbilt is allowing 452.5 yards per contest, next-to-last in the SEC.
LINE HISTORY: The point spread for this one hit the board with Florida giving 9.5 points. There were a few wobbles throughout the week (went as high as 10.5) but the line currently sits right on that opening number. The total opened at 41 and fell a half point to 40.5. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-0 in Commodores last 6 games in October.
* Road team is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
No. 25 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 70.5)
* Freshman Shane Buechele has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards and seven TDs as the Longhorns average 44.7 points. The backfield of D'Onta Foreman (288 yards, three TDs in two games) and Chris Warren III (260 yards, three TDs) is averaging 5.6 yards per carry while backup quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has added three scores. Freshman defensive end Malcolm Roach (two sacks) could get more playing time as part of Strong's changes to the defensive personnel.
* Mason Rudolph has thrown for 1,296 yards and six TDs, connecting with James Washington (league-leading 122 receiving yards per game) for three scores. Hill (211 rushing yards, TD) had 122 yards and two fumbles in a loss at Baylor last week while Rennie Childs (158 yards) has six rushing TDs. The Cowboys have forced a league-best nine turnovers - including two interceptions by cornerback Ramon Richards - but have lost eight, including six fumbles.
LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma State opened as three-point favorites and by midweek the spread was bet down to -2.5. The total opened at 71.5 and came down a full point to sit at 70.5. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-0 in Longhorns last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Road team is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-38, 60)
* Janarion Grant leads the team with 20 catches for 210 yards (not to mention 138 rushing yards and a touchdown pass) but will miss the remainder of the season with a right ankle injury suffered against Iowa. That will put more pressure on quarterback Chris Laviano (647 passing yards, five TDs) and running back Robert Martin (358 yards, one TD). Rutgers outgained the Hawkeyes last week, 383-355, thanks to 106 rushing yards by Martin, who is seeking his third straight 100-yard performance this weekend.
* The Buckeyes' defense returns only three starters from last year - as does the Ohio State offense - but the results have been extremely impressive to this point. Defensively, Ohio State has nine interceptions - four of them "pick-sixes" - and is the only FBS team not to allow a rushing touchdown all season. On the offensive side, J.T. Barrett has 10 touchdowns and only one interception, a big reason why the Buckeyes lead the nation with a plus-9 turnover margin.
LINE HISTORY: Ohio State opened the betting week as 38-point favorites over their conference rivals from Rutgers. In the middle of the week, the lofty spread actually went up slightly to -38.5 but settled back down to the opening number on Thursday evening. The total began the week at 59 but immediately dropped to 57.5. On Wednesday afternoon the total made another big move up to the current number of 60. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Scarlet Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
* Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights' last 5 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes' last 6 conference games.
No. 14 Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7, 54)
* Linemen Demetrius Jackson and Chad Thomas have combined for 10 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks while the all-freshman starting linebacker trio featuring Michael Pinckney and Shaquille Quarterman has exceeded expectations for a defense that is tied for first in sacks (4.33 per game) and No. 1 in tackles for loss (13.3). After dominating Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic on the ground, coach Mark Richt opened up the offense against the Mountaineers behind Kaaya, who threw scoring passes to veterans Stacy Coley and David Njoku while finding a new big-play option in freshman Ahmmon Richards (four catches, including a 62-yard TD). Sophomore Mark Walton is averaging 133.7 yards rushing and got the Hurricanes started with an 80-yard score on Miami's first offensive play against Appalachian State.
* Versatile quarterback Justin Thomas will look to get his team's usually reliable running attack back on track after an error-filled outing that Johnson termed "a train wreck" while also looking to improve his passing accuracy (23-of-51) in an effort to keep the Hurricanes' defense guessing. Freshman running back Dedrick Mills has emerged as the team's top rushing threat (67 yards per game, five touchdowns) and sophomore Clinton Lynch has big-play ability, averaging 12 yards on 11 carries and also scoring on a 71-yard pass play. Led by lineman Patrick Gamble (2.5 sacks), linebacker P.J. Davis (24 total tackles) and defensive back Corey Griffin (25 tackles, one interception), the defense had been solid - allowing only 31 points in three wins - prior to the first-half mess against Clemson.
LINE HISTORY: Miami opened the betting week as 6.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning that line was up to 7. The total hit the board at 49 and was bet up all week - 51.5, 52, 53 - and finally settled at its current number of 54. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Yellow Jackets are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Yellow Jackets' last 6 conference games.
* Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
No. 13 Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones (+16.5, 61)
* The Bears have led the NCAA in total and scoring offense the last three years but are off to a slow start -- for them -- averaging 42 points (24th in FBS) and 548.8 yards (eighth). Russell is the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 387 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Oklahoma State and for the season has thrown for 1,148 yards and 13 TDs while completing 80-of-133 attempts. Tailback Shock Linwood became the school's all-time leading rusher in the win over Rice and now has 3,679 yards, third-most among active FBS players, while linebacker Aiavion Edwards leads the defense with 33 tackles.
* The Cyclones lost their first three games to open the season, including a 25-20 home loss to FCS Northern Iowa, but finally broke though in the win column for first-year head coach Matt Campbell with an impressive 44-10 victory over San Jose State last Saturday. Mike Warren rushed for 103 yards and Jacob Park (165 yards, 3 TDs) and Joel Lanning (136 yards, 2 TDs) both had big games splitting time at quarterback. The defense, which intercepted four passes, was led by safety Kamari Cotton-Moya, who had 11 tackles and an interception, and linebacker Brian Mills, who finished with six tackles, a sack and a forced fumble.
LINE HISTORY: Baylor opened the betting week as 16.5-point road favorites and, despite a brief bump up to 17 in the middle of the week, the spread currently sits right on that opening number. The total opened at 60 and came up a point to 61 on Thursday. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games on grass.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Cyclones last 7 games following a straight up win.
No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 20 Georgia Bulldogs (+3, 52)
* Quarterback Joshua Dobbs ripped Florida’s defense for a career-best 319 yards passing and four touchdowns in winning SEC offensive player of the week, and has rushed for more than 80 yards in each of the Volunteers’ first four games. The Volunteers have five touchdown drives of one minute or less, and average 1:54 on their 16 offensive touchdown drives this season. Defensive end Derek Barnett earned SEC defensive player of the week honors after recording two sacks, three tackles for a loss and a batted pass in the second half.
* Chubb, who suffered a devastating left knee injury early in last season’s 38-31 loss at Tennessee, rushed for 57 yards on 12 carries last week before leaving. If Chubb cannot play, the tandem of Brian Herrien (78 yards last week) and Sony Michel (66 yards) will have to establish the running game and provide balance for Jacob Eason. The freshman quarterback struggled in his second road start last week, completing only 16-of-36 passes and throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown.
LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as three-point road favorites and on Tuesday that line went up to 3.5. On Thursday morning some money came back on Georgia which dropped the line back to the opening number of 3. The total began the betting week at 54 before being dropped, almost immediately, to 53 and came down another full point to 52 on Thursday morning. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
* Over is 8-2 in Volunteers last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 8-0 in Bulldogs last 8 home games.
No. 23 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (-10.5, 70)
* The Tar Heels have also struggled keeping teams off the scoreboard, permitting 30 points per game, and coordinator Gene Chizik told reporters, “We need to show up and play with a defense that looks like it can compete in this league." The other side of the ball is not a problem, although Pitt held the Tar Heels to 18 yards rushing last week and running back Elijah Hood is averaging just 72.8 yards per game. Trubisky boasts four veteran targets with at least 183 receiving yards, led by senior Ryan Switzer’s 33 catches (16 last week) and 429 yards.
* The Seminoles rushed for at least 400 yards for the first time since 1995 (10th overall) last week (478) and sophomore Jacques Patrick showed he can be a factor in support with 124 yards against USF. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois is completing 62.8 percent of his passes with just two interceptions and junior Travis Rudolph boasts 16 receptions for a team-high 233 yards and three scores. Florida State has not put it together on defense, yielding more than 200 yards per game on the ground, but has 13 sacks – 5.5 by end DeMarcus Walker.
LINE HISTORY: Florida State began the betting week as 11.5-point favorites. That spread was quickly bumped up to -12 before being dropped to -11 later Monday morning and was dropped even further to -10.5 on Thursday. The total opened at 69 and was bumped up to 70 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
* Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
* Over is 8-0 in Tar Heels last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 home games.
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 44.5)
* Freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook showed veteran poise in his first career start, throwing for 195 yards and a touchdown to lead the Badgers past Michigan State. T.J. Watt, who is the brother of Houston Texans star J.J. Watt, was named the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week after registering six tackles, including 3.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks against the Spartans. Offensive lineman Brett Connors will make his second straight start after an impressive performance last week while left guard Jon Dietzen (right leg) and kicker Rafael Gaglianone (back) are listed as questionable after missing the victory against Michigan State.
* The Wolverines' running back by committee approach paid off as Karan Higdon rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns while De'Veon Smith (107), Ty Isaac (74) and Chris Evans (56) all added a TD apiece last week. Senior cornerback Jeremy Clark will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL on a kickoff return in the fourth quarter against Penn State. Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh revealed he's "hopeful" that nose tackle Bryan Mone, who has been sidelined with a knee injury since the opening week, will return in time to face the Badgers while freshman defensive backs Lavert Hill and David Long are expected to see more meaningful snaps in Clark's absence.
LINE HISTORY: The Michigan Wolverines opened the betting week as 10.5-point favorites for this key Big Ten matchup. The line wobbled between -10 and -11 all week before settling back to -10.5 on Thursday evening. The total hit the board at 44 and was immediately bumped up to 45 before being dropped back slightly to 44.5 where it remained for most of the week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 12-0 in Wolverines last 12 games overall.
Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 15 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20, 53)
* Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Kendrick Foster combined for 337 yards rushing on 48 carries over the Illini's first two contests but totaled only 25 yards on 10 attempts as the Broncos stacked the box and forced quarterback Wes Lunt to beat them. Lunt had a season-high 312 yards passing in the loss, but he took four sacks, committed two turnovers (including his first interception of the season) and only three of his 29 completions covered more than 20 yards. The defense has also not held up its end of the bargain after allowing -10 yards rushing and recording three takeaways in the opener, yielding 484 total rushing yards and failing to force a turnover in the two games since.
* Tommy Armstrong Jr. has flourished in his senior season - averaging a career-high 8.78 yards per attempt while also posting a 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio - and is coming off a game in which he threw for 246 yards and ran for a career-high 132 yards. After running backs Terrell Newby and Devine Ozigbo each fumbled on potential scoring opportunities in the first half, Chicago native Mikale Wilbon impressed with 55 yards on six carries as the Cornhuskers put the game away on the ground over their final two drives. Guard Tanner Farmer (high-ankle sprain) has been ruled out and big-play wideout Alonzo Moore (shoulder), who leads the team with 310 yards receiving, is doubtful for Saturday.
LINE HISTORY: Nebraska opened the week as 21-point home favorites. The line held for most of the week before taking a couple of 1/2 point drops on Thursday to settle in to its current number of -20. The total began the week at 54, was dropped to 52.5, and came back up slightly to 53 on Thursday. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Fighting Illini are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Cornhuskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Cornhuskers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (+17.5, 47.5)
* The Aggies are the only team in the SEC and one of three in the nation who have passed and rushed for at least 1,000 yards, as they lead the SEC with 269.2 rushing yards per game. Texas A&M rolled up 366 rushing yards in last week’s 45-24 win over Arkansas with freshman running back Trayveon Williams and quarterback Trevor Knight leading the charge with more than 150 yards apiece. The defense was a liability a year ago but has been steady early this season with pass-rush specialist Myles Garrett leading a unit that is much-improved, especially against the run.
* The Gamecocks have taken to Muschamp’s defensive philosophy, allowing a respectable 17.3 points per game and forcing six turnovers over the past two games. The offense has not been as effective, as freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain has not thrown an interception but has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns. The ground game has been even worse, as the Gamecocks have averaged a paltry 2.95 yards per carry.
LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened the betting week as 17-point road faves and their line was bumped up to 17.5 early in the week - the spread has not moved since Monday. The total opened at 47.5 and hasn't moved at all as of Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
* Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in Aggies last 6 road games.
* Under is 9-1 in Gamecocks last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Oklahoma Sooners at No. 19 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (+3.5, 69.5)
* The Sooners are averaging 35.3 points per game behind Mayfield, who has passed for 793 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions after accumulating 3,700 yards and 36 touchdown passes last season. Sophomore Joe Mixon (235 yards, 8.4 average) has been much more productive than junior Samaje Perine (149 yards, 4.5 average) while sophomore wideout Mark Andrews has 211 receiving yards and four touchdowns on just nine receptions. Oklahoma is one of seven teams nationally without an interception and also has just five sacks while allowing an average of 31.7 points - including 33 to Houston and 45 to Ohio State.
* The Horned Frogs are averaging 42.8 points per game and junior quarterback Kenny Hill has been a multi-dimensional threat by passing for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 166 yards and six scores. Junior receiver John Diarse, a transfer from LSU, has blossomed with 13 receptions over the past two weeks, while junior running back Kyle Hicks has been solid with a team-best 314 rushing yards. Sophomore outside linebacker Ty Summers has posted 29 of his team-best 39 tackles in the past two games as a defensive unit that allowed 82 points over its first two games has given up just 23 over the last two contests.
LINE HISTORY: The unranked Oklahoma Sooners opened as 2-point road favorites against the No. 19 ranked TCU Horned Frogs. As the betting week progressed this line took several 1/2-point jumps to settle at its current number of 3.5. The total hit the betting board at 69.5 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Over is 9-1 in Sooners last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 home games.
No. 18 Utah Utes at California Golden Bears (-2.5, 65)
* Cornerback and team captain Dominique Hatfield, who had two interceptions in last year’s win over Cal, missed this season’s first three games with a knee injury but recorded five tackles last week and faces a key matchup against Cal’s top receiver on Saturday. While the Utes’ defense was expected to be among the team’s strengths, the offense has been a pleasant surprise thanks to players such as Tim Patrick, who is coming off back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. True freshman Zack Moss is averaging 92.5 rushing yards since becoming the starter two games ago, and the Utes’ offensive line didn't allow a sack last week against the Trojans.
* The Golden Bears have scored at least 40 points in each of their games but rank among the worst in the country in several defensive categories despite the play of end Cameron Saffle, who notched eight tackles and two sacks against Arizona State. While the defense remains a concern, the offense continues to put up points behind Webb and wide receiver Chad Hansen, who has six touchdowns and leads the nation with an average of 12.5 catches per game. As good as the offense has been, the Golden Bears still need more production from their running game along with wide receivers Demetris Robertson and Melquise Stovall.
LINE HISTORY: Cal opened the week as one-point home favorites and that line was bumped up to -2 on Wednesday before being bumped another 1/2 point to -2.5 on Thursday. The total opened at 67, went up slightly to 68, took a sharp drop to 65.5 on Thursday afternoon, and settled down to its current number of 65. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Utes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Utes last 6 road games.
* Over is 6-0 in Golden Bears last 6 games overall.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35.5, 57.5)
* The Wildcats are effective on the ground with an average of 196.8 yards per game as both junior Stanley "Boom" Williams (464 yards, 8.0 average) and freshman Benny Snell (209 yards, 6.3 average) have played well. Junior quarterback Stephen Johnson made his first career start last Saturday and went 11-of-19 passing for 138 yards in a victory over South Carolina and he may hold the job the rest of the season after Drew Barker's back injury leaves his status unclear. Sophomore weak-side linebacker Jordan Jones has a team-leading 43 tackles while sophomore strong-side linebacker Josh Allen and sophomore defensive end Denzil Ware share the team lead with three sacks.
* Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has been superb while passing for 727 yards and five touchdowns and adding 251 yards and three scores on the ground. If Harris doesn't play, freshman Joshua Jacobs is in line for increased duty after producing 97 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries versus Kent State. The Crimson Tide have allowed 59 points - 43 were in one game by Ole Miss - and thrives behind star players such as senior safety Eddie Jackson (nine career interceptions), senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (three sacks), senior weak-side linebacker Reuben Foster (team-best 29 tackles) and senior strong-side linebacker Ryan Anderson (three sacks).
LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as big 34.5-point home favorites over Kentucky and that line was bumped up even further throughout the week to settle in at -35.5. The total opened at 57.5 and, as of Friday afternoon, has yet to move off the opening number. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Crimson Tide last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Memphis Tigers at No. 17 Mississippi Rebels (-14.5, 69)
* Ferguson was named American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week despite playing only the first half of last weekend's thumping of the Falcons; his 359 yards passing was the 11th-highest single-game mark in school history, while his six passing touchdowns fell one short of Lynch's school record. Anthony Miller tallied 10 catches during last year's upset and leads the team with 17 receptions this season, while leading rusher Doroland Dorceus needed only nine carries to accumulate 117 yards versus Bowling Green, joining Miller as one of 11 Tigers this season to score a touchdown. After recording one takeaway against Southeast Missouri State in the opener, Memphis has forced 10 turnovers the last two games and is tied for fourth in FBS with 11.
* Chad Kelly continued his assault on the Rebels' record book during Saturday's victory over Georgia, completing a TD pass for the 17th straight game to break Eli Manning's school record while also moving past Archie Manning into sixth place on the total yardage list with 5,901. Evan Engram leads all FBS tight ends with a SEC-best 26 catches and 397 yards receiving, the latter of which is good for 13th among all players in the country. Senior defensive back Derrick Jones ran back Ole Miss' first interception of the season 52 yards for a touchdown last weekend - only one of four turnovers forced by the team this season - while junior linebacker DeMarquis Gates is one of nine SEC players with at least 30 tackles.
LINE HISTORY: Ole Miss opened the betting week for this matchup as 14.5-point home favorites. There was some movement down to -13.5 early in the week, but the point spread returned to its opening number of -14.5 by Wednesday and still sits at that number on Friday afternoon. The total hit the betting board at 65.5 and rose sharply to 69 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. SEC.
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Rebels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at South Alabama Jaguars (+18.5, 51.5)
* Pumphrey justifiably has received most of the credit for the Aztecs’ hot start, but sophomore quarterback Christian Chapman also has played well with six touchdown passes - including three to wide receiver Mikah Holder. The offense is averaging 39.3 points and 442.7 yards per contest, while the defense ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (107.6) since the beginning of the 2015 season. Linebacker Calvin Munson has recorded 34 tackles to lead a unit that includes defensive end Alex Barrett (four sacks) as well as shutdown cornerbacks Damontae Kazee and Derek Babiash.
* Dallas Davis threw for 302 yards but was intercepted four times in last week’s win over Nicholls while playing through a case of turf toe suffered on Sept. 17 in a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. Xavier Johnson, the team’s leading rusher, ran for 142 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s win over San Diego State but could miss Saturday’s contest due to a sprained ankle suffered in last week's victory. The defense is allowing an average of 28 points and will need another strong effort Saturday from safety Kalen Jackson and linebacker Roman Buchanan, who are tied for the team lead with 33 tackles apiece.
LINE HISTORY: San Diego State opened as 20-point road favorites and that line steadily fell all week to settle in at 18.5 by Thursday afternoon. The total hit the board at 52 and got as high as 53 before settling down to 51.5 on Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Aztecs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in Aztecs last 10 games in October.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Jaguars last 9 home games.
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (+1, 67)
* Jackson is widely considered the runaway leader in the Heisman Trophy race, having accounted for 25 touchdowns (13 passing, 12 rushing) through four games. Running back Brandon Radcliff has topped 100 yards rushing in three straight games, combining with Jackson to lead the nation’s No. 3 rushing attack at 318.2 yards per game. The Cardinals’ huge offensive numbers have overshadowed a strong defense, which has held three of four opponents under 300 total yards.
* If any team is up to the task of quieting the Cardinals’ offense, it might be the Tigers, who are coming off a dominant defensive effort after holding Georgia Tech to 124 total yards in a 26-7 victory. Clemson ranks third nationally in total defense and has been especially tough against the pass, allowing just 125.8 yards per game through the air. Watson has put up solid passing numbers, but the Tigers could use more of a contribution from running back Wayne Gallman, who has averaged just 44.3 rushing yards over the past three games.
LINE HISTORY: This is the big matchup that everyone has been waiting for all season. Clemson opened the betting as 3.5-point home favorites but the betting public hammered Louisville and forced some drastic line moves throughout the week. The spread was dropped from -3.5 to -2 almost immediately after release and on Monday the books dropped it all of the way to a Pick 'Em. On Tuesday that Pick 'Em fully jumped the fence and Louisville were installed as 2-point favorites. As of Friday afternoon the spread was beginning to come back again and Louisville currently sits as 1-point faves.
The total began the betting week at 67.5, took a slight bump to 68, and settled back down to 67 on Friday. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games overall.
No. 16 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+6.5, 52)
* While the offense had its struggles against Wisconsin, Dantonio has to be concerned about his defense, especially with two of the unit’s most productive players – Riley Bullough and Jon Reschke – dealing with injuries. Bullough, a senior captain at linebacker, missed the game against the Badgers and is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, while fellow LB Reschke will be out for a “significant time period" with an ankle injury, according to Dantonio. Shane Jones started for Bullough against the Badgers and will likely see time whether Bullough plays or not, while Andrew Dowell, who started for Reschke when he missed the opener against Furman, will also see his playing time go up.
* The Hoosiers are coming off a huge game passing the ball, with Lagow throwing for 496 yards and WR Ricky Jones setting career highs with eight catches for 208 yards. But to keep Michigan State’s ferocious defensive line from simply pinning their ears back and rushing Lagow every play, the running game must improve from last week’s 115-yard outing. The Spartans don’t give up many yards on the ground, but look for the Hoosiers to feed Devine Redding and other backs the ball early to at least establish the threat of a running attack.
LINE HISTORY: Michigan State opened the week as 7.5-point road favorites. The point spread went up as high as 8.5 early in the week but settled all of the way down to 6.5 by Wednesday. The total opened at 53.5 and dropped down to 52 by Thursday afternoon. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
by Taboola
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Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett has 10 touchdowns and only one interception, a big reason why the Buckeyes lead the nation with a plus-9 turnover margin.
We're on to Week 5 of the college football season and the full slate of games can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.
No. 21 Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores (+9.5, 40.5)
* Even with last week’s meltdown, the Gators still lead the SEC in total defense (221.8 yard per game, fourth nationally) and are allowing a league-best 13 points per game. Appleby, a fifth-year senior transfer from Purdue, completed 23-of-39 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns at Tennessee as Del Rio recovers from a knee injury. Better offensive line play also is needed this week, after the Gators rushed for just 19 yards on 13 attempts in the second half last week.
* Quarterback Kyle Shurmur played well down the stretch in the Commodores' rally, going 8-for-12 for 155 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime. Webb leads the SEC in rushing (472 yards) and is ninth nationally after rushing for 95 yards and three touchdowns last week. Vanderbilt is allowing 452.5 yards per contest, next-to-last in the SEC.
LINE HISTORY: The point spread for this one hit the board with Florida giving 9.5 points. There were a few wobbles throughout the week (went as high as 10.5) but the line currently sits right on that opening number. The total opened at 41 and fell a half point to 40.5. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-0 in Commodores last 6 games in October.
* Road team is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
No. 25 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 70.5)
* Freshman Shane Buechele has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards and seven TDs as the Longhorns average 44.7 points. The backfield of D'Onta Foreman (288 yards, three TDs in two games) and Chris Warren III (260 yards, three TDs) is averaging 5.6 yards per carry while backup quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has added three scores. Freshman defensive end Malcolm Roach (two sacks) could get more playing time as part of Strong's changes to the defensive personnel.
* Mason Rudolph has thrown for 1,296 yards and six TDs, connecting with James Washington (league-leading 122 receiving yards per game) for three scores. Hill (211 rushing yards, TD) had 122 yards and two fumbles in a loss at Baylor last week while Rennie Childs (158 yards) has six rushing TDs. The Cowboys have forced a league-best nine turnovers - including two interceptions by cornerback Ramon Richards - but have lost eight, including six fumbles.
LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma State opened as three-point favorites and by midweek the spread was bet down to -2.5. The total opened at 71.5 and came down a full point to sit at 70.5. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-0 in Longhorns last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Road team is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-38, 60)
* Janarion Grant leads the team with 20 catches for 210 yards (not to mention 138 rushing yards and a touchdown pass) but will miss the remainder of the season with a right ankle injury suffered against Iowa. That will put more pressure on quarterback Chris Laviano (647 passing yards, five TDs) and running back Robert Martin (358 yards, one TD). Rutgers outgained the Hawkeyes last week, 383-355, thanks to 106 rushing yards by Martin, who is seeking his third straight 100-yard performance this weekend.
* The Buckeyes' defense returns only three starters from last year - as does the Ohio State offense - but the results have been extremely impressive to this point. Defensively, Ohio State has nine interceptions - four of them "pick-sixes" - and is the only FBS team not to allow a rushing touchdown all season. On the offensive side, J.T. Barrett has 10 touchdowns and only one interception, a big reason why the Buckeyes lead the nation with a plus-9 turnover margin.
LINE HISTORY: Ohio State opened the betting week as 38-point favorites over their conference rivals from Rutgers. In the middle of the week, the lofty spread actually went up slightly to -38.5 but settled back down to the opening number on Thursday evening. The total began the week at 59 but immediately dropped to 57.5. On Wednesday afternoon the total made another big move up to the current number of 60. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Scarlet Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
* Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights' last 5 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes' last 6 conference games.
No. 14 Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7, 54)
* Linemen Demetrius Jackson and Chad Thomas have combined for 10 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks while the all-freshman starting linebacker trio featuring Michael Pinckney and Shaquille Quarterman has exceeded expectations for a defense that is tied for first in sacks (4.33 per game) and No. 1 in tackles for loss (13.3). After dominating Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic on the ground, coach Mark Richt opened up the offense against the Mountaineers behind Kaaya, who threw scoring passes to veterans Stacy Coley and David Njoku while finding a new big-play option in freshman Ahmmon Richards (four catches, including a 62-yard TD). Sophomore Mark Walton is averaging 133.7 yards rushing and got the Hurricanes started with an 80-yard score on Miami's first offensive play against Appalachian State.
* Versatile quarterback Justin Thomas will look to get his team's usually reliable running attack back on track after an error-filled outing that Johnson termed "a train wreck" while also looking to improve his passing accuracy (23-of-51) in an effort to keep the Hurricanes' defense guessing. Freshman running back Dedrick Mills has emerged as the team's top rushing threat (67 yards per game, five touchdowns) and sophomore Clinton Lynch has big-play ability, averaging 12 yards on 11 carries and also scoring on a 71-yard pass play. Led by lineman Patrick Gamble (2.5 sacks), linebacker P.J. Davis (24 total tackles) and defensive back Corey Griffin (25 tackles, one interception), the defense had been solid - allowing only 31 points in three wins - prior to the first-half mess against Clemson.
LINE HISTORY: Miami opened the betting week as 6.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning that line was up to 7. The total hit the board at 49 and was bet up all week - 51.5, 52, 53 - and finally settled at its current number of 54. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Yellow Jackets are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Yellow Jackets' last 6 conference games.
* Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
No. 13 Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones (+16.5, 61)
* The Bears have led the NCAA in total and scoring offense the last three years but are off to a slow start -- for them -- averaging 42 points (24th in FBS) and 548.8 yards (eighth). Russell is the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 387 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Oklahoma State and for the season has thrown for 1,148 yards and 13 TDs while completing 80-of-133 attempts. Tailback Shock Linwood became the school's all-time leading rusher in the win over Rice and now has 3,679 yards, third-most among active FBS players, while linebacker Aiavion Edwards leads the defense with 33 tackles.
* The Cyclones lost their first three games to open the season, including a 25-20 home loss to FCS Northern Iowa, but finally broke though in the win column for first-year head coach Matt Campbell with an impressive 44-10 victory over San Jose State last Saturday. Mike Warren rushed for 103 yards and Jacob Park (165 yards, 3 TDs) and Joel Lanning (136 yards, 2 TDs) both had big games splitting time at quarterback. The defense, which intercepted four passes, was led by safety Kamari Cotton-Moya, who had 11 tackles and an interception, and linebacker Brian Mills, who finished with six tackles, a sack and a forced fumble.
LINE HISTORY: Baylor opened the betting week as 16.5-point road favorites and, despite a brief bump up to 17 in the middle of the week, the spread currently sits right on that opening number. The total opened at 60 and came up a point to 61 on Thursday. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games on grass.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Cyclones last 7 games following a straight up win.
No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 20 Georgia Bulldogs (+3, 52)
* Quarterback Joshua Dobbs ripped Florida’s defense for a career-best 319 yards passing and four touchdowns in winning SEC offensive player of the week, and has rushed for more than 80 yards in each of the Volunteers’ first four games. The Volunteers have five touchdown drives of one minute or less, and average 1:54 on their 16 offensive touchdown drives this season. Defensive end Derek Barnett earned SEC defensive player of the week honors after recording two sacks, three tackles for a loss and a batted pass in the second half.
* Chubb, who suffered a devastating left knee injury early in last season’s 38-31 loss at Tennessee, rushed for 57 yards on 12 carries last week before leaving. If Chubb cannot play, the tandem of Brian Herrien (78 yards last week) and Sony Michel (66 yards) will have to establish the running game and provide balance for Jacob Eason. The freshman quarterback struggled in his second road start last week, completing only 16-of-36 passes and throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown.
LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as three-point road favorites and on Tuesday that line went up to 3.5. On Thursday morning some money came back on Georgia which dropped the line back to the opening number of 3. The total began the betting week at 54 before being dropped, almost immediately, to 53 and came down another full point to 52 on Thursday morning. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
* Over is 8-2 in Volunteers last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 8-0 in Bulldogs last 8 home games.
No. 23 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (-10.5, 70)
* The Tar Heels have also struggled keeping teams off the scoreboard, permitting 30 points per game, and coordinator Gene Chizik told reporters, “We need to show up and play with a defense that looks like it can compete in this league." The other side of the ball is not a problem, although Pitt held the Tar Heels to 18 yards rushing last week and running back Elijah Hood is averaging just 72.8 yards per game. Trubisky boasts four veteran targets with at least 183 receiving yards, led by senior Ryan Switzer’s 33 catches (16 last week) and 429 yards.
* The Seminoles rushed for at least 400 yards for the first time since 1995 (10th overall) last week (478) and sophomore Jacques Patrick showed he can be a factor in support with 124 yards against USF. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois is completing 62.8 percent of his passes with just two interceptions and junior Travis Rudolph boasts 16 receptions for a team-high 233 yards and three scores. Florida State has not put it together on defense, yielding more than 200 yards per game on the ground, but has 13 sacks – 5.5 by end DeMarcus Walker.
LINE HISTORY: Florida State began the betting week as 11.5-point favorites. That spread was quickly bumped up to -12 before being dropped to -11 later Monday morning and was dropped even further to -10.5 on Thursday. The total opened at 69 and was bumped up to 70 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
* Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
* Over is 8-0 in Tar Heels last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 home games.
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 44.5)
* Freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook showed veteran poise in his first career start, throwing for 195 yards and a touchdown to lead the Badgers past Michigan State. T.J. Watt, who is the brother of Houston Texans star J.J. Watt, was named the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week after registering six tackles, including 3.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks against the Spartans. Offensive lineman Brett Connors will make his second straight start after an impressive performance last week while left guard Jon Dietzen (right leg) and kicker Rafael Gaglianone (back) are listed as questionable after missing the victory against Michigan State.
* The Wolverines' running back by committee approach paid off as Karan Higdon rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns while De'Veon Smith (107), Ty Isaac (74) and Chris Evans (56) all added a TD apiece last week. Senior cornerback Jeremy Clark will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL on a kickoff return in the fourth quarter against Penn State. Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh revealed he's "hopeful" that nose tackle Bryan Mone, who has been sidelined with a knee injury since the opening week, will return in time to face the Badgers while freshman defensive backs Lavert Hill and David Long are expected to see more meaningful snaps in Clark's absence.
LINE HISTORY: The Michigan Wolverines opened the betting week as 10.5-point favorites for this key Big Ten matchup. The line wobbled between -10 and -11 all week before settling back to -10.5 on Thursday evening. The total hit the board at 44 and was immediately bumped up to 45 before being dropped back slightly to 44.5 where it remained for most of the week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 12-0 in Wolverines last 12 games overall.
Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 15 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20, 53)
* Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Kendrick Foster combined for 337 yards rushing on 48 carries over the Illini's first two contests but totaled only 25 yards on 10 attempts as the Broncos stacked the box and forced quarterback Wes Lunt to beat them. Lunt had a season-high 312 yards passing in the loss, but he took four sacks, committed two turnovers (including his first interception of the season) and only three of his 29 completions covered more than 20 yards. The defense has also not held up its end of the bargain after allowing -10 yards rushing and recording three takeaways in the opener, yielding 484 total rushing yards and failing to force a turnover in the two games since.
* Tommy Armstrong Jr. has flourished in his senior season - averaging a career-high 8.78 yards per attempt while also posting a 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio - and is coming off a game in which he threw for 246 yards and ran for a career-high 132 yards. After running backs Terrell Newby and Devine Ozigbo each fumbled on potential scoring opportunities in the first half, Chicago native Mikale Wilbon impressed with 55 yards on six carries as the Cornhuskers put the game away on the ground over their final two drives. Guard Tanner Farmer (high-ankle sprain) has been ruled out and big-play wideout Alonzo Moore (shoulder), who leads the team with 310 yards receiving, is doubtful for Saturday.
LINE HISTORY: Nebraska opened the week as 21-point home favorites. The line held for most of the week before taking a couple of 1/2 point drops on Thursday to settle in to its current number of -20. The total began the week at 54, was dropped to 52.5, and came back up slightly to 53 on Thursday. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Fighting Illini are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Cornhuskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Cornhuskers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (+17.5, 47.5)
* The Aggies are the only team in the SEC and one of three in the nation who have passed and rushed for at least 1,000 yards, as they lead the SEC with 269.2 rushing yards per game. Texas A&M rolled up 366 rushing yards in last week’s 45-24 win over Arkansas with freshman running back Trayveon Williams and quarterback Trevor Knight leading the charge with more than 150 yards apiece. The defense was a liability a year ago but has been steady early this season with pass-rush specialist Myles Garrett leading a unit that is much-improved, especially against the run.
* The Gamecocks have taken to Muschamp’s defensive philosophy, allowing a respectable 17.3 points per game and forcing six turnovers over the past two games. The offense has not been as effective, as freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain has not thrown an interception but has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns. The ground game has been even worse, as the Gamecocks have averaged a paltry 2.95 yards per carry.
LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened the betting week as 17-point road faves and their line was bumped up to 17.5 early in the week - the spread has not moved since Monday. The total opened at 47.5 and hasn't moved at all as of Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
* Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in Aggies last 6 road games.
* Under is 9-1 in Gamecocks last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Oklahoma Sooners at No. 19 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (+3.5, 69.5)
* The Sooners are averaging 35.3 points per game behind Mayfield, who has passed for 793 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions after accumulating 3,700 yards and 36 touchdown passes last season. Sophomore Joe Mixon (235 yards, 8.4 average) has been much more productive than junior Samaje Perine (149 yards, 4.5 average) while sophomore wideout Mark Andrews has 211 receiving yards and four touchdowns on just nine receptions. Oklahoma is one of seven teams nationally without an interception and also has just five sacks while allowing an average of 31.7 points - including 33 to Houston and 45 to Ohio State.
* The Horned Frogs are averaging 42.8 points per game and junior quarterback Kenny Hill has been a multi-dimensional threat by passing for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 166 yards and six scores. Junior receiver John Diarse, a transfer from LSU, has blossomed with 13 receptions over the past two weeks, while junior running back Kyle Hicks has been solid with a team-best 314 rushing yards. Sophomore outside linebacker Ty Summers has posted 29 of his team-best 39 tackles in the past two games as a defensive unit that allowed 82 points over its first two games has given up just 23 over the last two contests.
LINE HISTORY: The unranked Oklahoma Sooners opened as 2-point road favorites against the No. 19 ranked TCU Horned Frogs. As the betting week progressed this line took several 1/2-point jumps to settle at its current number of 3.5. The total hit the betting board at 69.5 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Over is 9-1 in Sooners last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 home games.
No. 18 Utah Utes at California Golden Bears (-2.5, 65)
* Cornerback and team captain Dominique Hatfield, who had two interceptions in last year’s win over Cal, missed this season’s first three games with a knee injury but recorded five tackles last week and faces a key matchup against Cal’s top receiver on Saturday. While the Utes’ defense was expected to be among the team’s strengths, the offense has been a pleasant surprise thanks to players such as Tim Patrick, who is coming off back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. True freshman Zack Moss is averaging 92.5 rushing yards since becoming the starter two games ago, and the Utes’ offensive line didn't allow a sack last week against the Trojans.
* The Golden Bears have scored at least 40 points in each of their games but rank among the worst in the country in several defensive categories despite the play of end Cameron Saffle, who notched eight tackles and two sacks against Arizona State. While the defense remains a concern, the offense continues to put up points behind Webb and wide receiver Chad Hansen, who has six touchdowns and leads the nation with an average of 12.5 catches per game. As good as the offense has been, the Golden Bears still need more production from their running game along with wide receivers Demetris Robertson and Melquise Stovall.
LINE HISTORY: Cal opened the week as one-point home favorites and that line was bumped up to -2 on Wednesday before being bumped another 1/2 point to -2.5 on Thursday. The total opened at 67, went up slightly to 68, took a sharp drop to 65.5 on Thursday afternoon, and settled down to its current number of 65. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Utes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Utes last 6 road games.
* Over is 6-0 in Golden Bears last 6 games overall.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35.5, 57.5)
* The Wildcats are effective on the ground with an average of 196.8 yards per game as both junior Stanley "Boom" Williams (464 yards, 8.0 average) and freshman Benny Snell (209 yards, 6.3 average) have played well. Junior quarterback Stephen Johnson made his first career start last Saturday and went 11-of-19 passing for 138 yards in a victory over South Carolina and he may hold the job the rest of the season after Drew Barker's back injury leaves his status unclear. Sophomore weak-side linebacker Jordan Jones has a team-leading 43 tackles while sophomore strong-side linebacker Josh Allen and sophomore defensive end Denzil Ware share the team lead with three sacks.
* Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has been superb while passing for 727 yards and five touchdowns and adding 251 yards and three scores on the ground. If Harris doesn't play, freshman Joshua Jacobs is in line for increased duty after producing 97 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries versus Kent State. The Crimson Tide have allowed 59 points - 43 were in one game by Ole Miss - and thrives behind star players such as senior safety Eddie Jackson (nine career interceptions), senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (three sacks), senior weak-side linebacker Reuben Foster (team-best 29 tackles) and senior strong-side linebacker Ryan Anderson (three sacks).
LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as big 34.5-point home favorites over Kentucky and that line was bumped up even further throughout the week to settle in at -35.5. The total opened at 57.5 and, as of Friday afternoon, has yet to move off the opening number. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Crimson Tide last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Memphis Tigers at No. 17 Mississippi Rebels (-14.5, 69)
* Ferguson was named American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week despite playing only the first half of last weekend's thumping of the Falcons; his 359 yards passing was the 11th-highest single-game mark in school history, while his six passing touchdowns fell one short of Lynch's school record. Anthony Miller tallied 10 catches during last year's upset and leads the team with 17 receptions this season, while leading rusher Doroland Dorceus needed only nine carries to accumulate 117 yards versus Bowling Green, joining Miller as one of 11 Tigers this season to score a touchdown. After recording one takeaway against Southeast Missouri State in the opener, Memphis has forced 10 turnovers the last two games and is tied for fourth in FBS with 11.
* Chad Kelly continued his assault on the Rebels' record book during Saturday's victory over Georgia, completing a TD pass for the 17th straight game to break Eli Manning's school record while also moving past Archie Manning into sixth place on the total yardage list with 5,901. Evan Engram leads all FBS tight ends with a SEC-best 26 catches and 397 yards receiving, the latter of which is good for 13th among all players in the country. Senior defensive back Derrick Jones ran back Ole Miss' first interception of the season 52 yards for a touchdown last weekend - only one of four turnovers forced by the team this season - while junior linebacker DeMarquis Gates is one of nine SEC players with at least 30 tackles.
LINE HISTORY: Ole Miss opened the betting week for this matchup as 14.5-point home favorites. There was some movement down to -13.5 early in the week, but the point spread returned to its opening number of -14.5 by Wednesday and still sits at that number on Friday afternoon. The total hit the betting board at 65.5 and rose sharply to 69 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. SEC.
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Rebels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at South Alabama Jaguars (+18.5, 51.5)
* Pumphrey justifiably has received most of the credit for the Aztecs’ hot start, but sophomore quarterback Christian Chapman also has played well with six touchdown passes - including three to wide receiver Mikah Holder. The offense is averaging 39.3 points and 442.7 yards per contest, while the defense ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (107.6) since the beginning of the 2015 season. Linebacker Calvin Munson has recorded 34 tackles to lead a unit that includes defensive end Alex Barrett (four sacks) as well as shutdown cornerbacks Damontae Kazee and Derek Babiash.
* Dallas Davis threw for 302 yards but was intercepted four times in last week’s win over Nicholls while playing through a case of turf toe suffered on Sept. 17 in a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. Xavier Johnson, the team’s leading rusher, ran for 142 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s win over San Diego State but could miss Saturday’s contest due to a sprained ankle suffered in last week's victory. The defense is allowing an average of 28 points and will need another strong effort Saturday from safety Kalen Jackson and linebacker Roman Buchanan, who are tied for the team lead with 33 tackles apiece.
LINE HISTORY: San Diego State opened as 20-point road favorites and that line steadily fell all week to settle in at 18.5 by Thursday afternoon. The total hit the board at 52 and got as high as 53 before settling down to 51.5 on Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Aztecs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in Aztecs last 10 games in October.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Jaguars last 9 home games.
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (+1, 67)
* Jackson is widely considered the runaway leader in the Heisman Trophy race, having accounted for 25 touchdowns (13 passing, 12 rushing) through four games. Running back Brandon Radcliff has topped 100 yards rushing in three straight games, combining with Jackson to lead the nation’s No. 3 rushing attack at 318.2 yards per game. The Cardinals’ huge offensive numbers have overshadowed a strong defense, which has held three of four opponents under 300 total yards.
* If any team is up to the task of quieting the Cardinals’ offense, it might be the Tigers, who are coming off a dominant defensive effort after holding Georgia Tech to 124 total yards in a 26-7 victory. Clemson ranks third nationally in total defense and has been especially tough against the pass, allowing just 125.8 yards per game through the air. Watson has put up solid passing numbers, but the Tigers could use more of a contribution from running back Wayne Gallman, who has averaged just 44.3 rushing yards over the past three games.
LINE HISTORY: This is the big matchup that everyone has been waiting for all season. Clemson opened the betting as 3.5-point home favorites but the betting public hammered Louisville and forced some drastic line moves throughout the week. The spread was dropped from -3.5 to -2 almost immediately after release and on Monday the books dropped it all of the way to a Pick 'Em. On Tuesday that Pick 'Em fully jumped the fence and Louisville were installed as 2-point favorites. As of Friday afternoon the spread was beginning to come back again and Louisville currently sits as 1-point faves.
The total began the betting week at 67.5, took a slight bump to 68, and settled back down to 67 on Friday. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games overall.
No. 16 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+6.5, 52)
* While the offense had its struggles against Wisconsin, Dantonio has to be concerned about his defense, especially with two of the unit’s most productive players – Riley Bullough and Jon Reschke – dealing with injuries. Bullough, a senior captain at linebacker, missed the game against the Badgers and is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, while fellow LB Reschke will be out for a “significant time period" with an ankle injury, according to Dantonio. Shane Jones started for Bullough against the Badgers and will likely see time whether Bullough plays or not, while Andrew Dowell, who started for Reschke when he missed the opener against Furman, will also see his playing time go up.
* The Hoosiers are coming off a huge game passing the ball, with Lagow throwing for 496 yards and WR Ricky Jones setting career highs with eight catches for 208 yards. But to keep Michigan State’s ferocious defensive line from simply pinning their ears back and rushing Lagow every play, the running game must improve from last week’s 115-yard outing. The Spartans don’t give up many yards on the ground, but look for the Hoosiers to feed Devine Redding and other backs the ball early to at least establish the threat of a running attack.
LINE HISTORY: Michigan State opened the week as 7.5-point road favorites. The point spread went up as high as 8.5 early in the week but settled all of the way down to 6.5 by Wednesday. The total opened at 53.5 and dropped down to 52 by Thursday afternoon. View complete line history here.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
by Taboola
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Posted on October 1st, 2016
BROWNS TO CUT TIES WITH GORDON.
ESPN.COM
Source: Browns plan to cut ties with Gordon
The Cleveland Browns intend to part ways with suspended wide receiver Josh Gordon, a source told ESPN's Dan Graziano.
Gordon, who currently is serving a four-game suspension and has committed multiple violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy, announced Thursday that he is entering a rehabilitation facility, citing a need to "gain full control of my life."
Browns coach Hue Jackson said earlier Friday that the team will "move on" from Gordon. The source acknowledged that the Browns ultimately plan to cut ties with Gordon, but noted that Jackson's comment was not meant to reflect the team's plans.
According to the source, Jackson was trying to steer conversation at his news conference away from Gordon and toward the Browns' upcoming game Sunday against the Washington Redskins.
"Today is really the last JG comment I want to make about that," Jackson said. "I think what's best for our football team is we move forward and we move on. He's not going to be with us and we wish him well, but we'll move forward. We'll move on."
Fellow Browns wideout Andrew Hawkins said he is happy Gordon made the choice to go to rehab.
"Hopefully this is the first step in the right direction and the first of a lot of good things to come for him," Hawkins said.
"Him being a good receiver isn't going to save his life 20 years from now. Him coming back to help the Cleveland Browns in 2016 isn't going to help him in 2025 if he's still dealing with these same issues. So I'm sincere in [saying] what he's doing is important."
Gordon was suspended for the entire 2015 season but was reinstated conditionally on July 25 by commissioner Roger Goodell, though he also was suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season.
He was eligible to return next week, ahead of Cleveland's Week 5 matchup against the New England Patriots.
Information from ESPN's Pat McManamon was used in this report.
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Posted on October 1st, 2016
Stakes Preview: The Vosburgh is A. P. Indian’s Race To Lose. Will He Show Up?
Stakes Preview: The Vosburgh is A. P. Indian’s Race To Lose. Will He Show Up?
DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus
>>Go to the PPs for The G1 Vosburgh | Post Time 5:11 EDT Saturday
It’s been a few years since we’ve had a dominant older Grade 1 dirt sprinter in this country, which makes A. P. Indian a welcome presence. He is undoubtedly the leader of this division after sweeping both Grade 1 sprints for older horses at Saratoga, running his winning streak to five. If he shows up, he’s a likely winner of this race—but will he show up? His connections have cast doubt over whether they would run him over a sloppy track, and there is plenty of rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. If he remains on the sidelines, this race really opens up.
Let’s go through the field:
#1, Weekend Hideaway (20/1): This horse has been plagued by inconsistency but seems to have gotten over those issues this year, as he’s put together four straight solid performances, including three wins against New York-breds. However, he was no match for X Y Jet at Gulfstream, or even Stallwalkin’ Dude in this race last year, so it would appear that he’s a cut below the best runners at this level. That said, he would be one worth moving up if the track comes up wet.
#2, Holy Boss (4/1): After reeling off four straight victories towards the first half of his three-year-old campaign, he’s been winless since last year’s Amsterdam at Saratoga. He’s hardly been disgraced in any of those races, and some might even argue that he’s improved as a four-year-old. However, the fact remains that he’s been in position to win in four straight races and just has not been able to seal the deal. Today his task is complicated by an inside draw in a race that features other speed and stalking types drawn to his outside. He resented getting stuck down inside in the True North two back, and he could be in for a similar trip here.
#3, Joking (8/1): After struggling to get through his allowance conditions for what seemed like an eternity, Joking has come on suddenly this year at the age of seven. Charlton Baker is having a fantastic year on the NYRA circuit and this runner’s success in the Grade 2 True North has to be considered his crowning achievement. That said, he missed some races over the summer and now must be set to top even his prior performance while returning from a layoff dating back to mid-June. The hurdles are significant, but he does love Belmont Park and ran a competitive speed figure when last seen. I’ll be using him underneath in exactas and trifectas.
#4, Green Gratto (30/1):
It’s hard to imagine that this admirable old warrior will be able to stick with X Y Jet early and still be around at the finish. He’s a pace presence (our Pace Projector has him pressing the early pace), but probably not much else.
#5, A. P. Indian (1/1):
#5, A. P. Indian (1/1):
There is little to criticize when analyzing this gelding’s recent form. He’s equally effective at distances ranging from six to seven furlongs; he can race on the lead or come from off the pace; and he’s run speed figures that are simply a few points higher than those of almost all of his competitors. In winning 10 of his 16 lifetime starts, he’s finished out of the money only twice. However, one of those subpar performances did come over a sloppy track in last year’s Phoenix at Keeneland. It’s possible that he needs a fast track to produce his very best effort, and he’s unlikely to get that on Saturday. However, if that is the case, his connections have indicated that he’d be unlikely to run. If the track is anything close to fast and he shows up, I’m not trying to beat him.
#6, X Y Jet (7/2): In many ways, this horse is the real wild card in the race. He is the only runner in this field to have consistently run speed figures that suggest he could give A. P. Indian a scare. However, he has not been seen since late March, and his connections picked an awfully ambitious spot in which to bring him back. Speed is the name of the game for this son of Kantharos, and he will try to take them as far as he can up front. However, he’s never encountered a horse that can finish up like A. P. Indian, and I wonder if an early tussle with Green Gratto could leave him somewhat vulnerable late. It’s also fair to wonder whether he can produce his best form in New York. Jorge Navarro’s runners have been effective at Monmouth and Gulfstream, but he gets only a 54 trainer rating on the NYRA circuit. Perhaps his Golden Shaheen effort is supposed to ease those concerns, but I still need to see it here to believe it.
#7, Stallwalkin’ Dude (8/1):
He nearly won this race last year after boldly forging to the lead past midstretch under Irad Ortiz. However, the game Rock Fall had just enough left in reserve to battle back for the victory. Things have not gone smoothly since then, as he’s had his ups and downs and seemed to completely tail off during the spring and early summer of this year. However, he got back on track at Saratoga and earned another Grade 1 placing in the Forego. He was never going to beat A. P. Indian that day, but he still ran a creditable race. Now he shortens up to arguably his best distance while in some of the best form of his career. I don’t anticipate that he’ll beat A. P. Indian, but he’d become a major player in the event that the favorite scratches.
#8, Dannie’s Deceiver (20/1):
If the surface does indeed come up sloppy, it figures to help this guy more than anyone else. In three runs over sealed tracks, he’s earned two wins and a second, which is better than he’s done in all of his fast track races. It would have seemed unlikely that he could compete against a field of this quality just a few months ago, but he’s made huge strides over his past few starts. He defeated a strong allowance field on Belmont Stakes day in June, and then made an eye-catching run from far back to nearly win in July. He was still dismissed at 40/1 in the Forego—his stakes debut—but he managed to pass more than half the field while rallying from last to be fourth. The fact that he was able to accomplish such a feat over a fast track speaks to the form that he’s in right now. I take it as a positive sign that Jose Ortiz climbs aboard, and the stiff 6-furlong workout that he put in a few days ago would appear to indicate that he’s feeling good coming into this race. If there’s one horse in this race that could surprise a lot of people and step up to hit the board—or even win, if A. P. Indian is absent—I believe it’s him.
THE PLAY
If A. P. Indian (#5) runs, he’s my top pick, but I think there are a few runners that could be used underneath him in exactas and trifectas, including Stallwalkin’ Dude (#7) and Dannie’s Deceiver (#8). If the favorite is scratched, then Dannie’s Deceiver would inherit the role of my top selection.
With A. P. Indian:
Win/Place: 8
Exacta: 5 with 7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,6 with 7,8
Without A. P. Indian:
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,6,7
THE PLAY
If A. P. Indian (#5) runs, he’s my top pick, but I think there are a few runners that could be used underneath him in exactas and trifectas, including Stallwalkin’ Dude (#7) and Dannie’s Deceiver (#8). If the favorite is scratched, then Dannie’s Deceiver would inherit the role of my top selection.
With A. P. Indian:
Win/Place: 8
Exacta: 5 with 7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,6 with 7,8
Without A. P. Indian:
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,6,7
Trifecta: 7,8 with 2,3,7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8
Posted on October 1st, 2016
TIMEFORMUS SATURDAY BELMONT PARK
Race 1:
Whitegate (#1)
Was steadied in traffic when attempting to move up the rail last time.
Faces a much easier field today.
Charlton Baker gets a 100 trainer rating with runners coming off layoffs of this length.
10/1 on ML
———–
Race 6:
Reconsider It (#10)
Was done in by a wide trip in her debut.
Was hindered by a slow pace last time.
Gets a huge rider switch to Junior Alvarado.
12/1 on ML
Posted on October 1st, 2016
TRUE NO FRILLS NO BULLSHIT FREE SPORTS PICKS TRACKED BY A TRUE 3RD PARTY WHO I DON'T EVEN KNOW THEIR DAMN PHONE NUMBER OR WHERE IN THE WORLD THEY ARE.
So if sick of being of ripped off and lied to you can go to www.pickmonitor.com and look up obviously my username because in order to truly believe it's 3rd party I SHOULD NOT BE THE ONE GIVING YOU A LINK TO CLICK AND GOING TO A BULLSHIT WEBSITE THAT IS A SCREENSHOT OF THE REAL THING FAKE RECORD FAKE LINES ECT.
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Accelerate coming into his own for Los Alamitos Derby
09/22/2016 10:50AM
Accelerate coming into his own for Los Alamitos Derby
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Benoit & Associates
Accelerate, ridden by Tyler Baze, wins the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar.
CYPRESS, Calif. – Accelerate, the winner of the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar last month, keeps jockey Tyler Baze active while they are in a race.
“You’ve got to let him know what’s going on," Baze said this week. “He’s just green. Once he puts it all together one of these days, he’ll be something special."
Accelerate was perfect at the Del Mar summer meeting, winning a maiden race July 28 and then the Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 26. The next objective is Saturday’s $200,000 Los Alamitos Derby at 1 1/8 miles. The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby will be the longest and most prestigious race of Accelerate’s career, which began in mid-April.
:: LOS ALAMITOS DERBY: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live
“I think this horse is growing up," said Baze.
Accelerate will be a strong favorite in the Los Alamitos Derby, the richest race of the track’s three-week September meeting. Purchased for $380,000 as a yearling, Accelerate is owned by Pete and Kosta Hronis and trained by John Sadler.
KEY CONTENDERS
Accelerate, by Lookin At Lucky
Last 3 Beyers: 93-93-82
◗ Accelerate lost his first three starts, all in sprints, including a second in a maiden race here in April in which Arrogate was third. Arrogate has won four subsequent starts, including the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 27, and is a candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita on Nov. 5.
◗ Accelerate’s Del Mar wins were at a mile. He beat maidens by 8 3/4 lengths and won the Shared Belief Stakes by a half-length over Semper Fortis, who is part of the Los Alamitos Derby field.
◗ The close finish in the Shared Belief Stakes served as a reminder to Baze that Accelerate is still developing. Baze said he needed to keep the colt focused in the race.
“He messes around a lot," he said. “When I broke his maiden, at the three-eighths pole I went to really riding him. I had to ride him hard to pay attention. He ran awesome that day. The light bulb was lit."
◗ Accelerate is most effective from a stalking position.
“I don’t think distance is a problem with him," said Baze, has been aboard Accelerate for all five of his starts. “From the very get-go, he’s been a horse that’s wanted to go two turns. He showed that the last couple of times he’s run."
Semper Fortis, by Distorted Humor
Last 3 Beyers: 92-81-64
◗ Semper Fortis had not raced in more than six months when he finished second at 14-1 in the Shared Belief Stakes. Purchased for $525,000 as a yearling, Semper Fortis won a maiden race for $62,500 claimers at Del Mar last November going five furlongs.
◗ Earlier this year, Semper Fortis won an optional claimer at a mile at Santa Anita and was a troubled sixth in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes.
◗ The Los Alamitos Derby will be the second start in a graded stakes for Semper Fortis. Trainer Doug O’Neill expects an improved effort following the Shared Belief.
“He got a little bit tired on the end," O’Neill said. “We’re assuming he’ll move forward off that. We’re right in the mix there."
Posted on September 24th, 2016
fear #weprayforpeace
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30 teams 30 days DETROIT PISTONS
30 Teams in 30 Days: Pistons opt to go big once again
Detroit adds depth around All-Star center Drummond as youthful roster starts to develop
- POSTED: Sep 19, 2016 8:14 AM ET
BY Shaun Powell
Coach Stan Van Gundy (center) has a solid core of young players to work with in Detroit.
Posted on September 20th, 2016
Note @ Las Vegas, Nevada
2016 Iroquois Stakes: Two For One
Photo: Maryland Jockey Club
Since the Iroquois Stakes was moved from late October/early November to mid-September we have seen more Kentucky Derby hopefuls, than eventual starters. Although, a few select horses such as Tapiture, Ride on Curlin and Mr. Z did get their chance to run for the roses at Churchill Downs the following spring. Their bids would fall short, but their journey from the first points race all the way to the Kentucky Derby was very unique. Today the long road begins again when the scoring resumes in the 2016 Iroquois Stakes.
At 3-1, Recruiting Ready is the morning line favorite. The son of Algorithms--Need nearly scored his first graded stakes win in his debut race at Churchill Downs on July 2. He did it by attempting to wire the eight other juveniles in the field with swift fractions of 21.76, 45.07 and 56.97 on the front end. The strategy looked to be a winner until his bid to draw clear was outmatched by Classic Empire who reeled him in the final furlong to win the Bashford Manor – G3.
Next time out the Horacio DePaz trainee looked even closer to a graded stakes win in the Saratoga Special – G2 on August 14. However, what appeared to be an easy win quickly turned into another runner up finish when Gunnevera soared home to steal the race at the wire from the heavy post time favorite. And then things got even worse when Recruiting Ready was disqualified from second and placed fourth for making contact with Tip Tap Tapizar near the three-eighths pole and knocking him off his stride.
Today, Gary Stevens will be in the saddle for the first time. The assumption is that Recruiting Ready will be back in position to get things right this time out, but he will also be stretching to out to over 1 mile for the first time in his young racing career.
The second choice on the morning line isThirstforlife. At 7-2 the son of Stay Thirsty - Promenade Girl returns to the track where he broke his maiden in his second career start. In between that effort and today was a respectable third place finish in the Best Pal – G3 at Del Mar, his graded stakes debut. In that contest Thirstforlife was in the mix throughout but he failed to fire a serious bid.
Florent Geroux returns for his second mount aboard Thirstforlife and first since he was in the irons for the colt’s career debut, a third place finish in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 5. Trainer Mark Casse will be attempting to win his second career Iroquois Stakes after notching his first in 2012 with Uncaptured.
Not This Time enters the Iroquois Stakes coming off his very first win for trainer Dale Romans. The one mile maiden victory by 10 lengths on the dirt at Ellis Park last month was his second career start. The son of Giant's Causeway – Miss Macy Sue is the co-third choice on the morning line.
Accompanying Not This Time at 4-1 isBlame Will, the son of Blame – Be My Prospect, trained by D. Wayne Lukas. This will also be his debut stakes race after a maiden win. Blame Will’s first victory came in his third career start and second at Saratoga after beginning his racing career here at Churchill Downs in June.
Lookin At Lee enters the Iroquois Stakes after winning back to back races at Ellis Park this summer. His first was in a maiden special weight race and followed by a more impressive score in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes. Though the stakes race was not graded and only featured five starters, the Steve Asmussen trainee by Lookin At Lucky – Langara Lass should be considered a live option for a nice price if his odds remain near his morning line mark of 6-1.
Honor Thy Father for trainer Kenny McPeek follows Lookin At Lee to the Iroquois Stakes from the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes where he finished third. Prior to that the son of To Honor and Serve – Hottie Dancer also broke his maiden at Ellis Park after striking out in his career debut at Churchill Downs last June. Coincidentally, Honor Thy Father finished behind Lookin At Lee in that race as well. Both horses missed the top three finishing fifth and sixth.
Just Move On moves into Churchill Downs for his first career start in the Bluegrass State after opening his career at Arlington Park earlier this summer. In two races from Chicago the Patrick Byrne trainee and son of Street Boss finished in the top three both times and won his last time out. Skinflint ships into Churchill Downs and the Kentucky racing circuit for the first time after breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park last time out. The son of Super Saver, trained by Dane Kobiskie, was listed as the long shot on the morning line with odds of 20-1.
So this is your field for the kickoff point’s race in the Road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Keep in mind that the Iroquois Stakes is distinctive because this stakes race also represents the first Breeders’ Cup 2016 Win & You’re In qualifier for the Juvenile division
Posted on September 20th, 2016