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When to Take a Stand Against the Favorite | America's Best Racing

When to Take a Stand Against the Favorite

Tips
August 14th, 2016 by Bob Ehalt
Fans watch the horses race in the stretch at Saratoga Race Course. (Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)

There was a valuable lesson contained within a $411,188.06 payout in Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow Pick 6 Jackpot on Aug. 6.

The handicapping genius who was the only one to correctly select all six winners made excellent use of a $2,160 bankroll, electing to use 10 of the 11 horses in one of the races.

While it’s hardly unusual for a Pick 6 player to wheel a race (using all of the horses in that race) or include virtually all of the horses, what stood out here was the horse left off the ticket was the favorite in the race.

And that’s why they call it gambling.

By taking a stand against the favorite – who finished fifth – that handicapper wound up having the $59.40 winner on that ticket and was ultimately rewarded with a life-changing payoff.

While cashing a Pick 6 ticket would be a dream come true for a modest player, anyone can benefit from the wagering strategy and confidence that went into that huge payday at Gulfstream Park.

As much as some handicappers like to focus their wagers on favorites so that they can cash a winning ticket more often, these chalk players are actually working against the odds. Even if favorites win 33 percent of the time, that means they lose 67 percent of the time.

It’s those numbers that illustrate why a handicapper would always be wise to exploit a vulnerable favorite. You’re chasing bigger payoffs, and, yes, about 67 percent of the time it makes sense to bet against the chalk.

While a handicapper should always strive to pick winners, sometimes it can work out just as well when you find a race where you do not like the favorite. By spreading your wagers a little more than usual in that race, you just might cash a ticket that puts you in the black for the rest of the day.

And if you’re worried that the horse everyone but you seems to like will beat you, remember, about 67 percent of the time that horse will lose. So go ahead, take a chance.

In case you have forgotten already, that’s why they call it gambling.

To help in understanding when it makes sense to latch on to a favorite or avoid it like a cold, let’s take a look at what’s happening at the “Graveyard of Favorites," Saratoga Race Course – which is actually embracing the chalk in a manner more befitting Aqueduct’s inner-track meet.

From July 22 through Aug. 12, there have been 187 races at the Spa – not including steeplechase events. In those races, the betting favorite has prevailed in 72 of them, which amounts to a very respectable rate of 38.5 percent.

With so many favorites crossing the finish line first, it would seem like nirvana for chalk players. But if they tried to stretch their luck into the exotics, they are no doubt struggling.

While betting the two favorites in an exacta might seem quite sensible while you’re analyzing past performances, in reality betting on the two favorites in a race, in the long run, accounts for low payoffs and a low winning percentage.

As much as the second choice has indeed wound up second behind the favorite more often than any other option in the wagering, your chances of cashing on the chalk running 1-2 are less than you might think.

Of those 72 wins by favorites at Saratoga, on 25 occasions the second choice finished second. That might sound good in theory, but it averages out to a chalk exacta happening 13.7 percent of the time – which is a rather low mark considering that 11 of those exactas paid $10.80 or less.

Interestingly, playing the second choice over the favorite in the exacta has generated much weaker results as it has happened just nine times, or 4.8% of the time.  Box the two favorites and you’re winning at a rate of just 18.2% (34 of 187) – which means you’re losing 81.8% of the time.

What can help in putting those numbers to work for you is an understanding of when the favorite is more likely to shine or stub its toe.

In breaking those numbers down by the categories of races, turf claiming races have been a weak area for favorites.

So far favorites have been victorious in just 22.7 percent of turf claimers (5 of 22 races) and have been first or second in 10 of the 22 races (45.5%).

Favorites, like Frosted, have done well in dirt stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)

In contrast, the chalk has thrived in dirt claimers. Favorites have won 17 of 35 (48.5%) main-track claiming races and have been first or second in 25 of those 35 races for a stellar mark of 71.4%.

Favorites have also excelled in dirt stakes, where they have won 7 of 15 races (46.6%) and been first or second 12 of 15 times (75%), and turf stakes, where favorites have won 6 of 9 races (66.6%) with no runner-up finishes.

If you’re looking for an opportunity to cast a “thumbs down" on a favorite, the best spots have been maiden special weight races on dirt (1 for 5, 20%), maiden special weight races for New York state-breds on dirt (0 for 4), starter allowance races on turf (0 for 4) and allowance races on turf (4 of 14, 28.5%).

Keep all of those numbers in mind the next time you stumble across a favorite that you don’t like. Rather than follow the pack and reluctantly back it, by sticking to your first instincts, you’ll actually have the percentages on your side and you could be staring at your big payoff of the day.

Yes, taking a gamble can certainly have its rewards, even if you’re not playing the Pick 6.

Related News

TEPIN ADDS SOME SPICE TO THE WOODBINE RICOH MILE

TEPIN ADDS SOME SPICE TO THE WOODBINE RICOH MILE!

By: Ed DeRosa on September 16, 2016
There are not many peppers hotter than a TePin, and there aren’t many horses hotter than Tepin right now, either, as the reigning champion turf female and Royal Ascot heroine brings her international road show to Woodbine for the Ricoh Mile on Saturday, September 17. For FREE Brisnet PPs, CLICK HERE.

The Woodbine Mile has not suffered for star power in recent years with Horse of the Year Wise Dan winning in 2013-2014 and future Arlington Million winner Mondialiste taking the race last year. Still, even with those big names shipping to Canada to take one of that country’s top prize, it’s impossible to deny that Tepin brings a little extra heat given that she is putting her 7-race winning streak on the line against males.

“She’s a superstar, and she embraces it,” said assistant trainer Norm Casse, whose dad trains the five-year-old Bernstein mare for Robert Masterson. “She soaks up the media attention and likes the fans to come and see her.

“She was anointed ‘Queen of the Turf’ by [Churchill Downs announcer] Travis Stone when she won on Kentucky Derby day.”

Annexing the Woodbine Mile would not only embellish her resume for another Eclipse Award—she’s won all five starts this year including two Grade 1s—but also provide a key victory for team Casse.

“I’m really excited about the possibility of winning the Woodbine Mile,” Casse said. “It’s a race that has eluded dad so far. When we brought her back this year, one of our main goals was to come back and win what I think is Woodbine’s marquee race.”

That the Woodbine Mile has eluded the Casses is saying something considering the team has won nine consecutive training titles as well as other major prizes here such as the Queen’s Plate, E.P. Taylor, and Woodbine Oaks.

The Woodbine Mile is the last of 12 races and anchors guaranteed Pick 4 and Pick 5 pools. Post time is 6:39 p.m. EDT

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Titans vs. Lions (Week 2 Preview) | Around the NFL Podcast

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Published on Sep 15, 2016

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Comments • 42

Add a public comment...
I am a personal fan of the lions, but have a lot of respect for the Titans. But I am going to have to to say that the lions offense will dismantle the Titans defense and beat them by 14+ points
5
I'm a packer fan, so im going to need the titans to win, but we all know that the lions are going to beat them
+Theminecrafter boss You Never Know...
Matt Stafford is going to pass for more yards than any other QB this week. Lions win 34-17
5
21-20 UPSET!!!! No im not a titans fan, im a packers fan
+Theminecrafter boss Nah To low Points for lions.
So they talked about the Titans the whole time smh 🤔🤔🤔🤔
lions win a easy game 35-17
6
Lions will win, someway, somehow.
were better than ur titans
1
Since im a packer fan, i want the titans to beat your team.
+Theminecrafter boss nah
(Frozenvoice) In the first time since forever, the Lions will start 2-0!
1
we started 2-0 in 2014
1
2014 and in 2011...So that would be 3 times in 6 years...Not exactly "forever"...boy you must feel pretty dumb
first to comment!
1
First L of the season for Lions
2
+Joe Spill nope
TITANS WINNING AGAINST DETOILET IS 100% FACTS 40-24
Titans have no chance. They will go 0-5 to start
24-20, Titans for the upset!
1
I actually really like both of these teams this year, for different reasons. I like the Titans because they're a total throwback. Downhill, north-south, smash mouth ball. Badass. There's a lot of terrible run defense in the league, and I'm more than happy to see Henry and Murray overpower smaller defenses. I like the Lions because I like how Stafford plays quarterback. Huge arm, definitely a top 5 arm in the league.
lions win 24-20
1
Stafford will throw for 400 yards easily
3
I'm calling a Titans W for this one. If you watched the week one game, the Titans were spectacular during the first half. If they can keep it together and stop turning the ball over, I feel like the Titans offense is almost unstoppable. It's gonna be close, but I think it'll be a Titans victory if they can keep morale up during the second half.
can say the exact same about the lions first half, were 21-3 against the colts. both of these teams fall apart during the second half normally, so it's whoever crumbles first :P
4
I GOT MY PREDICTIONS FOR THIS GAME AND ALL THE OTHER ONES ON MY CHANNEL GO CHECK THEM OUT!!! not trying to be annoying lol