Showing all posts tagged "Continued Education"
DRF Live
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Mark Simon , 2016-10-18 Posted : Oct 18, 2016, 12:01 PM
Remarkable producer of five stakes winners
A mare who can produce even one stakes winner is very valuable for a breeder and represents a small percentage of the mare population. Being able to produce two stakes winners is twice as nice, and rarer still.
But how about a mare who can produce five stakes winners? It’s a remarkable achievement, so it’s fitting that a mare who recently gained such status is named Remarkable Gal. She was credited with her fifth stakes winner on Oct. 10, Canadian Thanksgiving Day, when the juvenile colt Strate Remark won the Ascot Graduation Stakes at Hastings Park.
By Regal Remark out of Home Run Gal, by Struck Out (a son of Nashua), Remarkable Gal was quite unremarkable on the track, but she has produced nine stakes horse from 14 foals of racing age (so many foals out of one mare is also unusual for a broodmare). Remarkable Gal started but three times, all in claiming races at age 3, and won once, a $10,000 maiden-claiming race at Hastings. She was off the board in her other two starts and earned but $4,143.
As a producer, she has been a prize of the Pacific Northwest. Of her nine stakes horses, eight are either stakes winners or stakes-placed in Canada. The only outlier is her second foal, Golden Dragon, by Free At Last, who won a stakes in Macau.
Remarkable Gal’s other four stakes winners all won added-money events at Hastings in British Columbia. Her leading earner is Trick of the North, by Western Trick, a foal of 2001 who won the Grade 3 BC Premier’s Stakes in 2009 and the British Columbia Classic Handicap the following year. He won 16 of 74 starts while racing for 11 seasons and earned $459,592.
Her second-leading earner is Remarkable Miss, by Finality, winner of three stakes at Hastings and an earner of $177,268.
She’s also the dam of two stakes winners by Sungold – Sunnyside Gal, winner of the $100,000 Sadie Diamond Futurity in 2011, and Strate Remark, who has won two stakes in five starts this year at age 2 and earned $77,410.
Sungold is a son of A.P. Indy who raced in the Pacific Northwest and won three of 11 starts while racing from ages 2 through 4 and earning $42,673. He ran in stakes twice, including the Ascot Graduation, but failed to hit the board in either event. He stands at R.J. and Lois Bennett’s Flying Horse Farm in British Columbia for a private fee. The Bennetts, stalwarts of the BC breeding industry for years, had bought Sungold as a yearling for $30,000 at the Keeneland September sale and raced him.
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Joe Nevills , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 5:35 PM
#FTSarFall: Final numbers show marginal declines
The 2016 renewal of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall mixed sale showed a marginal year-to-year regression in gross and average, and was topped by the $150,000 broodmare Coronation Street.
Monday’s sale saw 164 horses sold for revenues of $2,780,600, down 2 percent from last year’s sale when 162 horses brought $2,833,800.
The average sale price declined 3 percent to $16,955 from $17,493, while the median fell 15 percent to $8,500 from $10,000. The buyback rate closed at 37 percent, down from 46 percent during last year’s sale.
At the top of the market, four horses changed hands for six figures, showing no change from last year’s sale. Horses sold for $50,000 or more rose to 15 from 12.
The sale was topped by Coronation Street, an unraced 3-year-old Street Cry mare who sold in foal to Alpha to Chester Broman for $150,000.
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Joe Nevills , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 5:08 PM
#FTSarFall: $125k Into Mischief filly tops weanling portion
The weanling portion of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall mixed sale was led by an Into Mischief filly, who sold to trainer Linda Rice, as agent for Sheila Rosenblum's Lady Sheila Stable for $125,000. It was the auction's second-highest price overall.
The gray or roan filly is the first foal out of the multiple stakes-placed Value Plus mare Roses Plus, from the family of Panamanian champion Percentile and Grade 2 winner Rockwall.
The filly was bred in New York by Clyde Taylor, and was consigned as agent by Catalyst Bloodstock.
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Joe Nevills , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 2:10 PM
#FTSarFall: High buyback rate in yearling portion
The yearling portion of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall mixed sale went by without much fanfare, spurred by a 68 percent buyback rate.
Nine yearlings changed hands in the auction ring for $47,200, posting an average price of $5,244 and a median of $3,000.
The yearlings were led by a first-crop Emcee filly who sold to Gloria Martin for $16,000, making her the only yearling of the auction to sell for a five-figure price.
The gray or roan filly is the first foal out of the stakes-placed Lightnin N Thunder mare Annie Roe, from the family of stakes winners Sweet Molly Malone, Woman in Space, Humor Me Molly, and Reno Rebel. She was bred in New York by Elena Ahlschwede, and was consigned by The New Hill Farm, agent.
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Joe Nevills , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 1:44 PM
Four supplemental entries added to #FTNov
---Edited Press Release---
Fasig-Tipton has added an initial four supplemental entries to the catalog for the 2016 November Sale to be held on Monday, November 7th in Lexington, Kentucky. These supplemental entries are catalogued as hips 161-164:
- DECKED OUT (Hip 161): Three-year-old daughter of STREET BOSS won G3 Providencia S. on turf earlier this year, and was also a close 2nd in G1 Del Mar Oaks. She also finished 3rd in G3 Schuylerville S. on dirt at Saratoga as a two-year-old. She is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner MORROW COVE from a prolific stakes-producing family. She will be consigned as a racing/broodmare prospect by Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent.
- ’16 MUCHO MACHO MAN – CAT ALERT COLT (Hip 162): Weanling colt from first crop of G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner MUCHO MACHO MAN. His first dam, graded stakes placed CAT ALERT, is the dam of five winners from five to race. He will be offered by Morgan’s Ford Farm.
- BACIAMI PICCOLA (Hip 163): Three-year-old daughter of EQUIANO won the G3 Florida Oaks this year. She is also multiple stakes placed in Europe. Her classic European pedigree includes Champion VIRGINIA WATERS and traces back to English foundation mare SUNBITTERN. She will be consigned as a broodmare prospect by Mill Ridge Sales, agent.
- ’16 MIDSHIPMAN – IRISH CONNECTION FILLY (Hip 164): Weanling daughter of Champion MIDSHIPMAN is a three parts sister to multiple graded stakes winner IRISH JASPER. IRISH JASPER most recently won the G2 Thoroughbred Club of America S. at Keeneland, a “Win and You’re In" for the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She will be consigned by St. George Sales, agent.
These entries may now be viewed online. Print versions of all supplemental entries will be available on the Fasig-Tipton grounds at sale time.
Fasig-Tipton will continue to accept approved November Sale entries up until the Breeders’ Cup. -
Mark Simon , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 1:27 PM
Broman purchased both of the six-figure mares sold at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall sale
Through the first one-third of the catalog of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Fall Sale currently under way, there have been two mares that have sold for six figures, both purchsed by Chester Broman.
The sale topper is Coronation Street, by Street Cry out of Sara Louise, by Malibu Moon, who sold for $150,000 in foal to Alpha. Consigned by Sequel New York, agent, Coronation Street was unraced. Her dam, Sara Louise, won the Grade 2 Top Flight and has produced two other foals, including $116,000-plus earner Mrs. Hudson.
Broman also purchased the other six-figure mare, going to $100,000 for Fingers Crossed, also in foal to Alpha and consigned by Sequel New York. Fingers Crossed won $103,630 and she is in foal for the first time. Her dam, Ruth E, by A.P. Indy, is the dam of Ruthless Quality, by Elusive Quality, winner of both her starts this year as a 2-year-old, including the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes.
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Joe Nevills , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 1:17 PM
#FTSarFall: Coronation Street leads broodmares at $150k
The broodmare/broodmare prospect portion of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall mixed sale is in the books, led by Coronation Street, who sold to Chester Broman for $150,000.
Coronation Street, an unraced 3-year-old Street Cry mare, sold in foal to Alpha and is the second foal out of the Grade 2-winning Malibu Moon mare Sara Louise. She is a sibling to two winners from two runners out of the mare.
Bred in Kentucky by Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum's Darley operation, which also owns Alpha and stands him at Sequel Stallions New York in Hudson, N.Y., Coronation Street is from the family of Mexican classic winner Jacobino, and Grade 3 winners Til Forbid, Hold Old Blue, Scoop and Just Louise. Sequel New York consigned Coronation Street, as agent.
At the end of the broodmare portion, a total of 64 horses had sold for revenues of $912,900. The average sale price was $14,246 and the median was $5,500. The buyback rate finished at 30 percent.
Those numbers all tracked behind last year's final numbers, but the strength of this sale is in its weanling offerings, which wraps up the sale after the slate of yearlings.
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DRF Breeding , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 12:31 PM
Ohio horsewoman Klosterman dies at 78
Judy Klosterman, an Ohio-based owner, breeder, and consignor, died Oct. 13 from complications due to Parkinson’s disease. She was 78.
Klosterman and husband Ken established the 235-acre Langsem Farm in Loveland, Ohio. Their successes under the Langsem banner include Naughty, Ohio’s champion 2-year-old of 1999, Ohio Broodmare of the Year Haveaheavenlytime, and stakes winners Cruise, Brushy Fork, Enticed, Heavenliness, and Conjuress. Klosterman was named Ohio’s breeder of the Year in 1992, and TOBA’s Midwest regional Breeder of the Year in 1999.
They also bred and sold Unbridled Time, a son of Unbridled’s Song out of Haveaheavenlytime who was purchased for an Ohio-bred record $1.15 million at the 1999 Keeneland September yearling sale and developed into a stakes winner.
For the complete article, click here.
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Joe Nevills , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 10:48 AM
A look at the first-crop weanling sires of #FTSarFall
The Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall mixed sale is the first dedicated mixed sale on the major North American aucton calendar, which means we get the very first looks at some notable first-crop weanlings in the auction arena.
I've put together a handy list of the first-croppers in today's catalog, which can be found below...
Alpha
2009, Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II
5 in catalog
Stands at Sequel Stallions New York, Husdon, NY, $8,500Cairo Prince
2011, Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull
1 in catalog
Stands at Airdrie Stud, Midway, KY, $15,000Can the Man
2011, Into Mischief - Smolensk, by Danzig
1 in catalog
Stands at Spendthrift Farm, Lexington, KY, $3,500Central Banker
2010, Speightstown - Rhum, by Go for Gin
11 in catalog
Stands at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, Saratoga Springs, NY, $7,500Fed Biz
2009, Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again
1 in catalog
Stands at WinStar Farm, Versailles, KY, $12,500Flashback
2010, Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley
6 in catalog
Stands at Hill 'n' Dale Farms, Lexington, KY, $7,500Goldencents
2010, Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold
2 in catalog
Stands at Spendthrift Farm, Lexington, KY, $15,000Handsome Mike
2009, Scat Daddy - Classic Strike, by Smart Strike
2 in catalog
Stands at Pleasant Acres Stallions, Morriston, FL, $5,000Honorable Dillon
2010, Tapit - Shy Greeting, by Shy Tom
17 in catalog
Stands at Rockridge Stud, Hudson, NY, $5,000Mucho Macho Man
2008, Macho Uno - Ponche de Leona, by Ponche
1 in catalog
Stands at Adena Springs Kentucky, Paris, KY, $15,000Revolutionary
2010, War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy
4 in catalog
Stands at WinStar Farm, Versailles, KY, $7,500Shakin It Up
2010, Midnight Lute - Silver Bullet Moon, by Vindication
1 in catalog
Stands at Spendthrift Farm, Lexington, KY, $10,000Verrazano
2010, More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway
2 in catalog
Stands at Ashford Stud, Versailles, KY, $20,000 -
Mark Simon , 2016-10-17 Posted : Oct 17, 2016, 9:46 AM
Outs for today's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga fall sale
The Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Fall Sale starts at 10 a.m. Eastern today.
Here are outs for the sale (53 total outs)
6
9
12
23
30
31
39
40
46
67
87
97 102
103
112
120
126
132
138
141
142
148
161
168
175
176
184
185
191
198 214
220
222
226
228
229
232
236
237
252
253
264
265
268
272
279
281
285
287
292 300
304
317
Posted on October 18th, 2016
Morales headed to hospital for observation,Frosted remains under consideration for BC Classic, Sunday Woodbine Recap, Dirt Mile, Stevens has mount on Runhappy in Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile,
Stevens has mount on Runhappy in Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Gary Stevens has the mount on Runhappy in the Grade 1, $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita, trainer Laura Wohlers said on Monday.
Runhappy, the champion sprinter of 2015, was paired with Stevens back in December, when the horse captured the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita.
Runhappy last raced Saturday, and finished fourth in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs. Edgar Prado was aboard the horse, who was making his first start back since the Malibu.
Wohlers said Runhappy emerged from the race in good condition and plans remain to ship out to Santa Anita about seven to 10 days in advance of the Breeders' Cup. Runhappy, who is based in Lexington, Ky., races for Jim McIngvale.
Frosted remains under consideration for BC Classic, Dirt Mile
Frosted, who has earned berths into both the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, remains under consideration for both races, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said on Monday.
"No decisions have been made," he said. "He's pointing for that weekend. He's doing great, working weekly, pointing for the Breeders' Cup."
McLaughlin said a decision on the path the horse will take will come down from Godolphin Racing.
Frosted earned a Dirt Mile berth for his win in the Metropolitan Handicap. He locked up a berth into the Classic by virtue of his win in the Whitney.
The $1 million Dirt Mile will be run Nov. 4 at Santa Anita, and the $6 million Classic at the Southern California track the following day, on Nov. 5.
Frosted is based in New York.
Morales headed to hospital for observation
Jockey Silvino Morales is being taken to a local hospital for observation after going down in a spill in the last race. The horse he was riding, Ziggymiester, clipped heels approaching the quarter-pole and flipped.
Officials said Morales was conscious and was able to move his arms and legs.
The incident happened when Tulipia, who was making a strong move, cut in front of Ziggymiester. Tulipia, ridden by Robert Stewart, was disqualified and placed last.
Sunday Woodbine recap
With leading rider Eurico Da Silva out of town, 10 different riders scored on the card, including David Moran, who won the $125K Vice Regent Stakes on Thor's Rocket, a sprinter stretching out who endured a four-wide trip. The personable Irishman revealed after the race that his wife is carrying their eighth child. She will be their fourth girl, to go along with four boys.
The favored Aye Aye Captain seemed to suffer the most from the Vice Regent being moved from the grass to a mile and a sixteenth on the Tapeta following an early afternoon shower. After a stalking trip, he made the lead in the stretch before flattening out to finish sixth. His previous effort was a solid second in a one-mile optional claimer around one turn on the lawn.
Ontario-breds Woodbridge and Escondera ran one-two in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special for 2yos. Both of them are prospects for next year's Queen's Plate.
Light My Path ended a bout of seconditis by beating $10K NW2 opposition under Alan Garcia as the 3-1 second choice in the nightcap. Her victory ensured a Jackpot Hi 5 carryover, which is a whopping $343K heading into Wednesday night.
Posted on October 5th, 2016
HOW PRODUCTS CAN CLIMB THE SOCIAL LADDER
HOW PRODUCTS CAN CLIMB THE SOCIAL LADDER
Let me start this post with a confession: I like whisky and think the different types taste very different from each other, I also like cognac but can’t tell them apart very well, and, for grappa, I can tell the different types apart but don’t really have an opinion on which ones are better. OK, so now you know my bias, which is important for what follows, and many of you have probably made an assessment of how (un)cultured I am.
But why did I mention grappa alongside the other two? A few years ago, that would have been pretty insulting to whisky and cognac, but now it is natural, at least among some people. And that is a big change with possible implications for managers. In a paper inAdministrative Science Quarterly, Giuseppe Delmestri (of WU Vienna University of Economics and Business) and Royston Greenwood (of the School of Business, University of Alberta) write about the Cinderella-to-queen transformation of grappa, and what it means for our understanding of categories in general, and specifically, organisations in markets.
The paper expertly describes how a dilemma for grappa producers, and their solution to it, solves a puzzle for researchers: why do different product types have different status rankings and how much does that change over time? Historically, grappa was cheap booze for the underclass. This was not ideal for grappa makers, who would have very much liked higher prices. But as long as rich people everywhere – including Italy, its country of origin – thought that grappa was no good, preferring other drinks instead, prices were not going to rise.
Some grappa producers were able to find a path to higher status. Interestingly, grappa’s complete image turnaround was accomplished not only in the space of just a few years (the mid-to-late 1970s), but also immediately after several high-profile failed attempts including one that led to bankruptcy. Delmestri and Greenwood detail the process in which one producer in particular, Giannola Nonino, essentially created a luxury market for artisanal grappa. How successful was she? Without making any changes to the grappa itself, she was able to hike its price by 70 percent in a mere four years. By the end of the 1970s, premium grappa had supplanted foreign spirits as the quaff of choice at Italy’s most chic gatherings.
Three steps to status elevation
The paper has much more detail than I can give here, but the short story is that a rise in status involves distancing from the low-status past and present (detachment), association with related high-status products (emulation) and connections to the broader society (sublimation).
Detachment was a key piece of the puzzle for Nonino. She recognized that grappa’s reputation as a drink for manual labourers would prevent its acceptance by the sophisticated set. So instead of changing the product, she changed its image, starting with the packaging. In order to make grappa look the part, Nonino adopted architect-designed bottles modelled on perfume flagons. Plunging into her role as the public face of premium grappa, Nonino also upgraded her own appearance. She was often seen decked out in the latest Armani and Valentino couture to personally deliver her product to Italy’s finest hotels and restaurants.
Emulation came into play as Nonino sought to cultivate associations between grappa and French wine, employing tactics standard for winemakers but unheard of for grappa producers: “using a single-varietal grape, highlighting the distiller’s family, and labelling to disclose the region of origin", as the paper states. Interestingly, this contradicts one strand of research, which argues that emulation strategies work best when they seek to bridge large, not small, gaps between product categories. Nonino leveraged proximity – the fact that both grappa and wine are grape-derived – rather than difference to create associations for customers. The authors suggest that in mature industries, status elevation is accomplished by activating such points of comparison for the benefit of the most sophisticated audience segments.
Sublimation describes Nonino’s overarching brand vision. She very deliberately positioned her family’s artisanal grappa as part of a larger cultural turn toward home-grown authenticity and away from mass-produced homogenisation. Warm relationships with influential journalists and critics helped promulgate the Nonino narrative of a single-family artisanal grappa producer steadfastly upholding Italian tradition and culture. Also, she sought to install the Nonino name within the established cultural order, launching a literary prize (bestowed at an awards ceremony held in the Nonino distillery) for works treating themes of anti-consumerism and rural culture. At the same time, Nonino embraced contemporary trends in Milanese design and fashion in order to emphasise the coexistence of tradition and modernity.
Pulling the right levers
All needed to be done and the “raw materials" for all needed to be present. The story of grappa’s rise to high-status is interesting because it shows exactly how customers can change their minds when all the right levers are pulled. It took bottles designed to resemble perfume flagons, single-grape distilling and regional labelling and linking to Milanese high fashion to make grappa fashionable and prestigious, but it could be done.
I think the story is also interesting because it suggests a condition that needs to be present for it to work. Grappa became high-status after a long campaign. Can any regional or local product accomplish the same? Before you say yes, consider this: Italy is a pretty cool place, so grappa had a good starting point.
Henrich R. Greve is a Professor of Entrepreneurship at INSEAD and the John H. Loudon Chaired Professor of International Management. He is also the Editor of Administrative Science Quarterly and a co-author of Network Advantage: How to Unlock Value from Your Alliances and Partnerships. You can read his blog here.
Posted on September 20th, 2016
SETTLING THE DEBATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
SETTLING THE DEBATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Despite the recent climate agreement in Paris (COP21), where 195 countries adopted the first legally binding treaty to curb climate change, the debate about whether climate change exists or whether it’s the fault of human beings still rages on.
Climate deniers, typically extreme libertarians and anti-government free market advocates, characterise themselves as “underfunded” advocates of “free speech” and “reason”. They characterise the views of most climate scientists and environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club and Greenpeace, as “alarmist” and “left-wing dogma”.
The libertarian sceptics and deniers do no original research, but they constantly criticise the “politicisation” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They claim that the evidence of “anthropogenic causation” is extremely weak, and that any climate warming taking place must therefore be of natural origin, or otherwise unexplained.
What can’t be disputed
In the interest of academic rigour, it would be useful to analyse the facts and how the deniers see them. First of all, CO2 levels are undeniably rising. The increase, which many sceptics don’t deny, accelerated after World War II, mainly because of industrialisation of developing countries, increased consumption of electricity, and increased use of private cars and substitution of automotive (and air) transportation for rail-based transport.
But this is the extent of the consensus between climate scientists and deniers.Despite a broad scientific consensus on the importance of CO2 as a driver of climate change, some climate sceptics, and a few outright “deniers” (including the Republican members of the U.S. Congress) still question whether carbon dioxide is actually harmful, on balance. Some argue that carbon dioxide is the “food” for all plants. Plants capture and “fix” that carbon to create the carbohydrate-based food for animals. The natural process (which produces oxygen as a byproduct) is calledphotosynthesis. Without photosynthesis we (and all the other animals) would starve (in fact, we could never have evolved in the first place). Carbon dioxide is the basis of the Earth’s food chain. It is also the source of all the carbon embodied in the fossil fuels our industrial economy depends on.
Not only that, the photosynthesis process is also the source of the oxygen in the air. We humans (and almost all animals) require oxygen to metabolise, and without oxygen we would suffocate. In fact, as the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, the rate of production of carbon-fixation in organic matter also increases. This is the well-known “carbon fertilisation effect”, and it is exploited commercially in Dutch (and other) greenhouses. It is said that crop production could increase by up to 15 percent in a more carbon-intensive world.
Furthermore (the argument continues), the ozone layer in the stratosphere protects us (and all terrestrial species) from the harmful effects of ultra-violet (UV) radiation. Ozone is a reactive form of oxygen (O3) that is created in the stratosphere by that same UV radiation from the sun. The ozone layer exists because of the oxygen in the atmosphere, which exists because of photosynthesis. Clearly, atmospheric carbon dioxide plays an essential role in the natural world. We could not live without it.
However, most of the climate sceptics and deniers don’t argue on the basis of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis. The majority argue that the science is flawed and the true effect of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is unproven. There have been vicious attacks on individuals as well as institutions researching climate change. For instance, Lord Christopher Monckton of Brenchley calls it a “climate scam”, adding that the scientific endeavour and policymaking on climate change is “the biggest transfer of wealth in human history from the poor to the rich, from the little guy to the big guy, from the governed to those who profit by governing them.”
But there is no alternative non-anthropogenic theory to explain rising temperatures and therefore melting glaciers, sea level rises and ocean acidification. To invoke “natural variation” is not a theory about causes.
The “pause”
Another recent dispute has focused on the so-called “pause” in climate warming after 1998. If one cherry picks the data, then it seems that there was a slowdown in the rate of temperature increase in recent years.
Figure 1 below shows a graph that was widely circulated in the media (by nay-sayers) allegedly proving that the global temperature did not actually increase for a long period of time. The yellow-shaded area represents the range of 1990 IPCC projections, as contrasted with actual temperature measurements.
Figure 1. IPCC over-prediction from 1990 Report
Part of the discrepancy suggested by this graph turns out to have been based on an erroneous temperature database based on satellite data measurements that had not been correctly “converted” to surface temperatures.
The climate sceptics who stress the discrepancy have made several mistakes. First, they got hold of a (leaked) draft of the fourth IPCC Assessment Report (AR) that was visually misleading because of an erroneous misalignment of observations with trends in the year 1990. A number of nay-sayers published this misleading graph on the web and claimed that it proved that there was no climate warming from 1998 to 2012. The error was corrected in the final AR4, but the naysayers did not retract their claims.
Their next mistake was to confuse the average of all model projections with the actual warming trend. The model projections reflect a wide variety of assumptions about natural variability as well as human activity. But these assumptions show the range of possibilities, not the most likely temperature trajectory.
Third, the nay-sayers who prepared Figure 1 engaged in blatant “cherry-picking” of the start and end dates of the period for which they claim there was no warming. The next graph (Figure 2) shows how different choices of start and end dates for 15-year periods can distort the results. The temperature data are from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Figure 2. NASA GISS
Note that the long-term trend (1951-2012 black dotted line), shows a consistent temperature increase over the 61-year period, whereas the period 1998-2012 (blue line) shows very little increase (50 percent less than the long-term rate) because of the very warm starting year (a very strong El Nino), while the period 1992-2006 (the red line) shows a 50 percent greater increase, because of the very mild starting year (due to the eruption of the volcano Pinatubo). Note also that 2015-16 (beyond the range of the chart) is another very strong El Nino year that will make the rate of temperature increase look greater again.
Notwithstanding the points made above, it is true that the surface warming trend from 1998 through 2014 was slower than the model predictions from 1990, or even later ones. In other words, there has been a “pause” although not outside the range of recent model projections. This point has been acknowledged in the IPCC AR5 report. The key point is that the models are not (yet) capable of making accurate forecasts of short-term (10-15 year) climate changes. However, the models, tested by backcasting, appear to be reasonably accurate over longer periods.
In the interests of fairness, we can entertain the deniers to an extent on their claim that the IPCC has consistently overestimated its temperature projections. We now know that the original forecasts were considerably off. The forecasts were based on “General Circulation Models” – mathematical models measuring temperature variations in the circulation of the air, ocean and land – were fairly crude in 1990. For instance, there was little information about the temperature of the ocean so scientists relied on data from ships at sea to report on ocean temperatures at particular times in particular places. But since then, the Argo Programme has been launched, which consists of 4,000 bathythermographs (torpedo-shaped probes, floating in the ocean) measuring temperatures as far down as 2,000 meters. Placed in temperate oceans, these probes have drastically improved our coverage of ocean temperatures and therefore the quality of data in the models, improving model forecasting capability significantly.
This is particularly important to building an accurate understanding of the climate, which is a difficult job in the absence of key data. The IPCC has to take into account not just ocean temperatures but air and land temperatures as well. Cloud dynamics and the sea-land and ocean-air interfaces are especially critical.
Despite the IPCC’s acknowledged model weaknesses, the long-term trend is not in doubt. The climate is heating up. The evidence suggests CO2 emissions are the cause and an evidence-based alternative theory is something deniers lack. Another line of debate involves “climate sensitivity”, i.e. by how much the temperature actually rises with CO2 levels. But I will save that for my next piece.
Posted on September 20th, 2016
INSEAD Knowledge - Why We Need Facts and Experts
WHY WE NEED FACTS AND EXPERTS
Jean Pisani-Ferry, a professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, has written a very interesting postabout the need for trusted experts in a democracy. He addresses the criticisms that economic experts have received as a result of the Brexit vote. Quoting from the post:
"Representative democracy is based not only on universal suffrage, but also on reason. Ideally, deliberations and votes result in rational decisions that use the current state of knowledge to deliver policies that advance citizens’ wellbeing."
Very well said. He also mentions the lack of influence of economic experts is not that different from that of other experts (as illustrated by the debates on climate science, GMOs, etc.). I share this view and my guess is that the mistrust of economic experts is simply more visible because of their influence (or lack of) in the political debates that tend to be a lot more present in the media than the debates on scientific issues.
Opinions beat facts
How to enhance the trust in experts? It’s not obvious, according to Pisani-Ferry. What is needed is a combination of discipline among the community of experts, an education system that equips citizens with the tools to distinguish between fact and fiction and the development of better venues for dialogue and informed debate.
Good luck! Unfortunately we are very far from this ideal scenario. Education has reached more citizens than ever before, more so in advanced economies, but we see little impact on reasoned discourse. It might be that the complexity of the issues under debate is at a level which does not allow an informed discussion based on facts and not on ideology. Opinions that are expressed using either the wrong facts or no facts at all are accessible to the public and have an influence that is as large as those who present the facts. And the media does not serve as an adequate filter, maybe because controversy sells or because there is a need to present a 'balanced' view of a debate or simply out of self-interest.
Misinformed media
Here is my example of the day that illustrates this point: the Financial Timespublished two articles on the same day on the merits of quantitative easing. One argued for more QE under the logic that is working and we just need to increase the dosage. The second article presented the view that QE, as well as expansionary fiscal policy, are the wrong tools to use to generate a recovery and that they are likely to lead to a very unhappy ending.
If you read the second article you will notice the use of dubious “facts" and an economic logic that anyone who has ever taken any economics course should realise is badly flawed.
Let me pick one example. The article starts with the figure of 300 percent of GDP for global debt and then it argues that:
"If the average interest rate is 2 percent, then a 300 percent debt-to-GDP ratio means that the economy needs to grow at a nominal rate of 6 percent to cover interest."
This is just wrong on so many counts:
- The increase in debt in the world is matched by an increase in assets.
- The interest rate paid by borrowers goes to lenders. So the world (or a given country) does not need to find income to pay for this interest, this is a transfer from borrowers to lenders.
- Borrowers need to pay interest but if debt is coming from a mortgage to buy a house, rent is no longer paid. Looking at interest payments alone (or at liabilities without taking into account assets) is just wrong.
- The 300 percent number cannot be associated to a country or a government, most debt is internal. No country has an external debt that is anywhere close to that level. Same is true for governments (with the exception of Japan which is not far off, but, once again, most of this debt is internal – so the interest that the government of Japan has to pay goes to the Japanese citizens who happen to be the taxpayers).
- Even if you had a government that had 300 percent of debt, the calculation above is simply wrong. If interest rates are 2 percent, you need to grow at 2 percent (not 6 percent) to ensure that the debt-to-GDP ratio stays constant (as long as your additional borrowing or saving is zero, of course). This is something that is taught in a principles of economics course. The authors are confusing the value of interest payments and the required growth to make that level of debt sustainable.
The rest of the article contains many other mistakes. It is embarrassing that the Financial Times is willing to publish such a low quality article.
Will this article influence anyone's view on the debate on monetary policy? I do not know but what I know is that the pessimistic view presented in the article on the role that monetary and fiscal policy is popular enough that is still influencing both the debate around and also the outcome of current economic policies.
We are very far from having informed and factual debates about the economic (and scientific) issues that shape economic and social outcomes. As an economist, I continue to do my best by sharing my views and analysis with a wide audience through blog posts like this one but it is depressing to see how those that rely on flawed analysis often manage to reach the public through the validation of the most respected media.
Posted on September 20th, 2016
Betting 101
Types of Bets
Win-Place-Show Bets
Betting on horse racing can be fun and easy. There are several different wagers offered each race, but these are the three most basic:
- The first is a "win" wager. Betting a horse to win is just as fun as it sounds – the horse must win the race in order for you to win the wager.
- Next, is a "place" wager. This is betting on a horse to finish in the top 2. You win the wager if your horse finishes first or second.
- Betting a horse to "show" means selecting a horse who you think will finish in the top 3. You win the wager if your horse finishes first, second, or third.
Because of the difficulty of a win wager, it will yield the highest payoff of these three wagers. A show wager will yield the lowest payoff but offers the greatest chance of winning.
The minimum bet for a win, place or show wager is only $2.
Exacta Bets
If you've mastered the art of win, place and show wagers, try an exacta. An exacta is more difficult than win, place and show wagers, but yields a higher payout. You bet an exacta by selecting a minimum two horses to finish first and second. These horses must finish first and second, in that order, for you to win the wager.
If picking two horses in order sounds too difficult, you can "box" your wager. A boxed wager will win if your horses finish 1st and 2nd, in any order, making it more likely for you to win.
The minimum bet for an exacta or exacta box wager is only $2.
Trifecta Bets
If you've mastered the art of win, place and show wagers, try a trifecta. A trifecta is more difficult than win, place and show wagers, as well as exacta wagers, so it yields a higher payout than any of those bets.
You bet a trifecta be selecting a minimum three horses to finish first, second, and third. These horses must finish first, second, and third, in that exact order, for you to win the wager.
If picking three horses in order sounds too difficult you can "box" your wager. A boxed trifecta wager will win if your horses finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in any order, making it more likely to win.
The minimum bet for a trifecta wager is only 50 cents and you can bet a trifecta box for as little as $3.
What to Say to the Mutuel Teller When You Bet
If you're a beginning bettor you probably want to place your bets at a mutuel window with a live mutuel teller before using self-service betting machines and mobile applications. Here’s what you should do when you get to the betting window:
- Have your money in hand, so that once you're at the counter, you're ready to make your bet
- State the track's name
- State the race number you are betting on
- State the amount of money you are betting
- Say the type of bet you are placing
- Finally, state the horse's program number
How to Pick a Winner
Read the Program
The daily racing program is packed with information that can help you choose your favorite horse and can help you to make smarter bets. For each race, the program outlines each horse contender, and provides very detailed information about that horse, including its odds of winning the race, its race history, its work-outs, its jockey and other connections and their statistical records, its saddle towel color, and even its birthdate. At first glance, the numbers and language can be intimidating, but with a little guidance and a little practice, you'll find your own rhythm for reading through the program and selecting a winner. Explore our "How to Read a Program" guide for detailed explanations of each program statistic. You can start at a beginner level, and move up to intermediate and advanced readings.
Listen to What the Experts are Saying
Watch the Horses
As with any athlete, physical appearances are an important factor in sizing up competition. Horse racing is no different, and what your eyes tell you about the horse can be a helpful tool in betting. Here's just a few tips on what to look for as the horses come into the Paddock, but remember that, like your mom always said, "Don't judge a book by its cover." It's difficult to make judgments based solely on appearance.
- Ears – If the horse's ears are pricked, meaning they are large and pointed up, and its head is high and confident, you can assume that the horse is alert, aware of their surroundings, and ready to race. You don't want to bet on a horse that’s ears are flattened back, or hanging its head low and inattentive.
- Hair – Like humans, a good hair day goes a long way! While the horses are in the Paddock, take a good look at their hair. A nice shiny coat is an indication that the horse is in good condition; it's a general sign of the horse’s health and well-being.
- Muscle Definition – Most super-star athlete have prominent muscles and horses are no different. Be sure to look for nice, toned muscles around the horse’s chest and rib cage area. You want to bet on a horse that has defined muscles near their rib cage, and isn’t overweight or carrying too much fat.
- Nerves – It's natural to have some nerves before competition, but over anxious horses aren't necessarily a good bet. Look at the horse's behavior in the paddock, and look closely at the sweat on his/her coat. If the horse is too fidgety or sweating too much, then the horse may be wasting too much energy before it has even hit the racetrack.
Have Fun
Posted on September 17th, 2016

Picking Your Horse
There is no right or wrong way to pick a horse. Here are some approaches that may work well for you:
1. Look at Past Performances in the NYRA Bets store to see how each horse has done in its most recent start.
2. Make a selection based on jockeys or trainers. Check out our NYRA leaderboard to see who is doing well during the current meet.
3. Find out who the experts like. Every track offers analysis from their in-house handicappers. Check out our NYRA BetsExpert Picks page.
The Different Bet Types
Easy
Win – Your horse must win.
Place – Your horse must finish first or second.
Show – Your horse must finish first, second, or third.
Across the Board – Separate win, place, and show wagers of equal amounts on the same horse.
Medium
Exacta – Pick the first two horses in the correct order.
Quinella – Pick the first two horses in either order.
Trifecta – Pick the first three horses in the correct order.
Daily Double – Pick the winners of two consecutive races.
Hard
Superfecta – Pick the first four horses in the correct order.
Grand Slam – Pick a horse to finish in the top three in three straight races, capped by the winner of the fourth race in the sequence. If there is no show wagering in one of the first three legs, the horse must finish second.
Pick 3 – Pick the winners of three consecutive races.
Pick 4 – Pick the winners of four consecutive races.
Pick 5 – Pick the winners of five consecutive races.
Pick 6 – Pick the winners of six consecutive races.
“Boxing" your choices in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets makes your wager more expensive but allows you to win if your selected horses finish in any order! In addition, adding additional horses to your wagers raises the price of your ticket, but gives you more chances to win.
If you have trouble placing bets, please contact us through our Live Chat or call 1-844-NYRA-BET and we would be happy to assist.
You Won! Now What?
Whether you place your bet online or on-track, your account balance will reflect your winnings once the result is official.
Posted on September 17th, 2016
When to Take a Stand Against the Favorite | America's Best Racing
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Posted on September 17th, 2016