Showing all posts tagged "Business"
INSEAD Knowledge - Why We Need Facts and Experts
WHY WE NEED FACTS AND EXPERTS
Jean Pisani-Ferry, a professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, has written a very interesting postabout the need for trusted experts in a democracy. He addresses the criticisms that economic experts have received as a result of the Brexit vote. Quoting from the post:
"Representative democracy is based not only on universal suffrage, but also on reason. Ideally, deliberations and votes result in rational decisions that use the current state of knowledge to deliver policies that advance citizens’ wellbeing."
Very well said. He also mentions the lack of influence of economic experts is not that different from that of other experts (as illustrated by the debates on climate science, GMOs, etc.). I share this view and my guess is that the mistrust of economic experts is simply more visible because of their influence (or lack of) in the political debates that tend to be a lot more present in the media than the debates on scientific issues.
Opinions beat facts
How to enhance the trust in experts? It’s not obvious, according to Pisani-Ferry. What is needed is a combination of discipline among the community of experts, an education system that equips citizens with the tools to distinguish between fact and fiction and the development of better venues for dialogue and informed debate.
Good luck! Unfortunately we are very far from this ideal scenario. Education has reached more citizens than ever before, more so in advanced economies, but we see little impact on reasoned discourse. It might be that the complexity of the issues under debate is at a level which does not allow an informed discussion based on facts and not on ideology. Opinions that are expressed using either the wrong facts or no facts at all are accessible to the public and have an influence that is as large as those who present the facts. And the media does not serve as an adequate filter, maybe because controversy sells or because there is a need to present a 'balanced' view of a debate or simply out of self-interest.
Misinformed media
Here is my example of the day that illustrates this point: the Financial Timespublished two articles on the same day on the merits of quantitative easing. One argued for more QE under the logic that is working and we just need to increase the dosage. The second article presented the view that QE, as well as expansionary fiscal policy, are the wrong tools to use to generate a recovery and that they are likely to lead to a very unhappy ending.
If you read the second article you will notice the use of dubious “facts" and an economic logic that anyone who has ever taken any economics course should realise is badly flawed.
Let me pick one example. The article starts with the figure of 300 percent of GDP for global debt and then it argues that:
"If the average interest rate is 2 percent, then a 300 percent debt-to-GDP ratio means that the economy needs to grow at a nominal rate of 6 percent to cover interest."
This is just wrong on so many counts:
- The increase in debt in the world is matched by an increase in assets.
- The interest rate paid by borrowers goes to lenders. So the world (or a given country) does not need to find income to pay for this interest, this is a transfer from borrowers to lenders.
- Borrowers need to pay interest but if debt is coming from a mortgage to buy a house, rent is no longer paid. Looking at interest payments alone (or at liabilities without taking into account assets) is just wrong.
- The 300 percent number cannot be associated to a country or a government, most debt is internal. No country has an external debt that is anywhere close to that level. Same is true for governments (with the exception of Japan which is not far off, but, once again, most of this debt is internal – so the interest that the government of Japan has to pay goes to the Japanese citizens who happen to be the taxpayers).
- Even if you had a government that had 300 percent of debt, the calculation above is simply wrong. If interest rates are 2 percent, you need to grow at 2 percent (not 6 percent) to ensure that the debt-to-GDP ratio stays constant (as long as your additional borrowing or saving is zero, of course). This is something that is taught in a principles of economics course. The authors are confusing the value of interest payments and the required growth to make that level of debt sustainable.
The rest of the article contains many other mistakes. It is embarrassing that the Financial Times is willing to publish such a low quality article.
Will this article influence anyone's view on the debate on monetary policy? I do not know but what I know is that the pessimistic view presented in the article on the role that monetary and fiscal policy is popular enough that is still influencing both the debate around and also the outcome of current economic policies.
We are very far from having informed and factual debates about the economic (and scientific) issues that shape economic and social outcomes. As an economist, I continue to do my best by sharing my views and analysis with a wide audience through blog posts like this one but it is depressing to see how those that rely on flawed analysis often manage to reach the public through the validation of the most respected media.
Posted on September 20th, 2016
Casse Bids For Sweep of Saturday's Road to Kentucky Derby, Oaks Openers, Breeders' Cup 'Win & You're In' Races
Casse Bids For Sweep of Saturday's Road to Kentucky Derby, Oaks Openers, Breeders' Cup 'Win & You're In' Races
The Mark Casse-trained Thirstforlife, shown in an easy victory in his second career start during the Spring Meet at Churchill Downs, bids for his first stakes triumph in Saturday's $150,000 Iroquois Presented by TwinSpires.com (GIII). (Coady Photography, Churchill Downs)
Trainer Mark Casse swept both 2-year-old stakes races on closing day of Churchill Downs’ Spring Meet with the John C. Oxley-owned pair of Classic Empire andPretty City Dancer in the Bashford Manor (GIII) and Debutante Stakes, respectively, and will attempt to mirror that accomplishment Saturday when he sends out Thirstforlife in the $150,000 Iroquois Presented by TwinSpires.com (GIII) andDream Dancing in the $200,000 Pocahontas Presented by TwinSpires.com (GII).
Both the Iroquois and Pocahontas serve as the first qualifying races on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” and “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” and will award the Top 4 finishers points on a 10-4-2-1 scale. They are also a part of the Breeders’ Cup “Win & You’re In” program where the winners of each race will receive an automatic berth to the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, both Grade I races that carry a purse of $2 million.
“Obviously it would be a great accomplishment,” said Casse’s assistant trainer David Carroll. “It would speak volumes of the horses under our care, the job Mark does and the team that he has put together and obviously the owners giving us horses of this caliber.”
Owned by Gary Barber and St. Elias Stable, Thirstforlife was a third beaten six lengths last time out behind Klimt in Del Mar’s Best Pal (GIII) who came back to win the Del Mar Futurity (GI). The son of Stay Thirstywill be trying two turns for the first time when he runs in the Iroquois.
“We’re looking forward to getting him around two turns,” Carroll said. “I don’t think we learned too much after his last race. He broke sharp, took back and they went a slow pace and ran one-two all the way around so we don’t really know where he fits but (Saturday) we should learn a lot about him. Obviously it’s a good field and a lot of horses on the up and up. I think (trainer) Dale (Romans)’s horse (Not This Time) looks like a promising colt also. We’ll learn a lot more after the race.”
While Thirstforlife is coming fresh out of a Grade III, his stable mate Dream Dancing will be taking things up a notch. Her last effort came when she broke her maiden on the second attempt going two turns on the turf at Saratoga. She will be trying dirt for the first time.
“Mark likes to use Saratoga for two turns,” Carroll said. “There are no two-turn dirt races, only turf races and often if they have a dirt pedigree, he’ll put them on the turf just for the experience and conditioning. She’s bred for dirt, her family says dirt and obviously she won on turf. She shipped down a few days ago, she’s in great shape and we’re looking forward to running her also.”
In her career debut on Aug. 7, the daughter of Tapit was second behind the Leah Gyarmati-trained Coastal who went on to win Saratoga’s P.G. Johnson Stakes. In the same race, Dream Dancing finished ahead of Joust who went on to break her maiden at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 11.
“They’ve done a great job with her at Saratoga,” Carroll said. “The form is good and we’re looking forward to leading her over there and hopefully run a big race. Mark will say that there are no two-turn dirt races and the turf is easier on them and also a lot of conditioning from them. Once you try that bottom, then you can try them on the dirt. It seems to work well.”
Casse will be in search of his first Pocahontas victory with Dream Dancing and has one Iroquois victory under his belt with Uncaptured in 2012. Jockey Florent Geroux has the mount aboard both Casse trainees.
PROMISING 2-YEAR-OLD NOT THIS TIME STEPS UP IN IROQUOIS – Albaugh Family Stable’s Not This Time is the “total package,” according to trainer Dale Romans, who hopes that this half-brother to dual Grade I winner Liam’s Map will deliver a victory for the Romans barn in Saturday’s $150,000 Iroquois Presented by TwinSpires.com (GIII) following an impressive 10-length maiden victory at Ellis Park on Aug. 12.
The homebred son of Giant’s Causeway’s Ellis Park romp was a big turnaround from his career debut at Churchill on June 28, where he was a well-beaten fifth beaten 10 lengths behind the Eddie Kenneally-trained Bitumen, the eventual winner of Saratoga’s Sanford (GII) on July 23.
“He’s pedigree, he’s intelligence, he’s looks, he’s talent … he’s got it all,” said Romans, who won the Iroquois with Cleburne in 2013. “This is a good field of horses, there are a lot of good horses in the race and it looks like there is a lot of speed. This will be a good test for him to see if he steps up where we think that he can. Endurance is no question, he’s a good horse.”
In recent years, Romans has left many of his quality 2-year-olds at Churchill, rather than taking them to Saratoga where he based during a good portion of the summer.
“When I started a long time ago I would take a lot of 2-year-olds to Saratoga,” Romans said. “I just saw a pattern of horses working way too hard too early to compete up there and it’s paid off for me to just leave them behind and run at Ellis and it’s really become some very high quality racing. It’s a good time of year to break a horse’s maiden and it’s a safe surface to run on. It’s worked well for me.
“Hopefully he just steadily improves. He doesn’t have to go too far right now. He’s a good horse but we would just like to see him keep getting better with every race.”
Robby Albarado, the pilot aboard Not This Time’s two career starts, returns to the saddle for the Iroquois.
GORDER TOUTS POCAHONTAS ENTRANT SULLY’S DREAM – Following an eye-popping 12-length maiden victory at Ellis Park on July 30, trainer Kellyn Gorder can’t help but speak blessings of his promising 2-year-old filly Sully’s Dream, who is taking a jump up in class in Saturday’s $200,000 Pocahontas Presented by TwinSpires.com (GII).
“Halfway through the summer I sent a text to the owner (Ralph Ebert) and said, ‘I think this could be the best filly I’ve had in my barn,’” said Gorder, who seeks his first graded stakes victory since the 2013 Jefferson Cup (GIII) with General Election. “I really don’t think we’ve got close to seeing what she’s capable of and I think highly of her. I’m not sure that she beat much in that race, but it really is hard to judge. She’s been working with older horses and physically she doesn’t look 2; she looks like a 3-year-old.”
The Pocahontas serves as a part of the Breeders’ Cup “Win & You’re In Juvenile Fillies Division,” whose winner will receive an automatic berth into the $2 million 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) at Santa Anita on Nov. 5. Should this daughter of Colonel John return to the winner’s circle, she will likely be California bound.
“If she punches the ticket here, that’s what we’ll do,” Gorder said. “I’m a little concerned with the outside post but it’s nothing I’d be too nervous about. The way she goes about her work is just so professional. She does everything so easily and I think that she’s pretty special.”
Sully’s Dream will receive the riding services of Robby Albarado, who was aboard for her astonishing maiden win.
LANERIE HOPES FOR MORE SUCCESS DURING SEPTEMBER MEET – Last year, jockey Corey Lanerie entered the Churchill Downs September Meet fresh off a frustrating 0-for-57 at Saratoga, but this year he stayed home to ride at Ellis Park, which resulted in a riding title at the Henderson, Ky. oval.
The Lafayette, La. native finished off the Ellis Park meet with 26 wins in 125 starts banking $557,782 when riding at the track.
“Last year I knew going into Saratoga that I’d be up against some tough competition,” Lanerie said. “Did I think that I would not win a race? No, but I knew how tough it would be and coming home I have my people that are loyal to me and I’m grateful for my good business here.”
Lanerie will be in search of his 12thChurchill title in the past 13 meets.
“I got to stay home and win some races and was fortunate enough to be leading rider at Ellis Park,” Lanerie said. “I’m very glad to get back to Churchill. I expect that we can hopefully kick off against winning a bunch of races and try my best to stay on top.”
SATURDAY’S FIRST RACE MOVED TO 2:30 P.M.; LOUISVILLE/FLORIDA STATE ATTENDEES TO RECEIVE FREE ADMISSION– With a nationally-televised ACC showdown between the 10th-rankedUniversity of Louisville football team and second-ranked Florida State at nearby Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium on Saturday at noon, Central Avenue is certain to be bustling with activity this weekend.
Track officials proactively moved back Saturday’s post time from 12:45 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. so fans could enjoy the best of both worlds and to help ease area traffic.
Those who attend the big game are invited to visit Churchill Downs afterward free of charge on Saturday simply by showing their ticket stub. Eleven races, including four stakes events, are scheduled Saturday and the last race is scheduled for 7:29 p.m.
ESPN’s College GameDay will visit Louisville for the first time for Saturday’s game, and there will be some elements from Churchill Downs fused into the broadcast, including track bugler Steve Buttleman starting the show at 9 a.m. with the “Call to the Post.”
FAMILY ADVENTURE DAY IS SUNDAY – Presented by Kroger and in partnership with Kosair Children’s Hospital, Family Adventure Day at Churchill Downs will be held Sunday (Sept. 18) – first Sunday of the September Meet.
Families are encouraged to bring the kids to Churchill Downs for a day of racing and family activities including pony rides, inflatables, petting zoo, stick horse races in the Paddock, face painting and more. New activities for this event include Sportsdrome Speedway race cars and drivers; the Air 60 police helicopter and the Belle of Louisville float. Kosair Children’s Hospital activities will feature the Caring for Your Child’s Mind, Body and Spirit: Mighty Titans obstacle course; kids’ yoga; and a “just for kids” craft activity.
Posted on September 17th, 2016
