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Posted on October 5th, 2016
Santa Anita: Postponed "unlikely" for Breeders' Cup Turf
Santa Anita: Postponed "unlikely" for Breeders' Cup Turf
Postponed, the beaten favorite in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly Racecourse in France, is doubtful to start in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita on Nov. 5, trainer Roger Varian said on Tuesday.
In a brief telephone conversation, Varian said Postponed has run for the final time this year. In the Arc, Postponed finished fifth, 6 1-2 lengths behind Found, as the 15-8 favorite.
"I think it's unlikely now," Varian said when asked if Postponed would still be sent to California. Varian said the focus would be on preparing Postponed for the 2017 season.
Postponed was beaten for the first time this year in the Arc. He won twice in Dubai in March - in the Group 2 City of Gold Stakes and Group 1 Sheema Classic, the latter a $6 million race on the undercard of the Dubai World Cup. In England, Postponed won the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom in June and the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York in August.
Posted on October 5th, 2016
War Story to Jockey Club Gold Cup; Protonico possible as well
War Story to Jockey Club Gold Cup; Protonico possible as well
War Story, beaten a head in the Frosted Stakes at Parx on Sept. 24, will make his next start in Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park, owner Ron Paolucci said Tuesday.
Paolucci said trainer Mario Serey has been impressed with how War Story came out of the Frosted -- also known as the Pennsylvania Derby Champion Stakes -- that he told Paolucci that he wanted to run the horse right back. Paolucci recommended Saturday's Grade 2, $350,000 Kelso Handicap at Belmont. After sending the horse back to the track a few days after the Parx race, Serey told Paolucci "We'll win the Gold Cup,' " Paulucci said.
"I said "Are you out of your mind?'" Paolucci said. "Normally, it's me saying let's go to the Gold Cup and the trainer saying let's run in the Kelso."
On Monday, at Parx, War Story worked six furlongs in 1:12 out of the starting gate.
War Story, a gelding by Northern Afleet, is 3 for 14 in his career. He has placed in graded stakes four times but has run in some ambitious spots such as the 2015 Kentucky Derby, where he finished 16th of 18, and this year's Pacific Classic where he finsihed seventh of nine, 22 3-4 lengths behind California Chrome.
In the Frosted, he closed very well after getting off slowly and was only beaten a head by Cyrus Alexander, the favorite.
"That was the first time since the Louisiana Derby where people didn't call me the the biggest idiot on the planet and said that I ran him where you're supposed," Paolucci said.
When he runs in the Gold Cup, War Story will be doing so for his sixth trainer in his last six starts. The horse was sent to Serey after the Pacific Classic, but he ran in trainer Miguel Penaloza's name in the Parx race because Serey was serving a suspension.
As of Tuesday, it was unclear who would ride War Story in the Gold Cup. Javier Castellano is possible but he may ride Protonico, who could be re-routed from the Kelso to the Gold Cup. Paolucci said if Castellano doesn't ride him, he would try to get Trevor McCarthy to ride.
Todd Pletcher said Tuesday he would wait until Wednesday -- entry day -- to decide whether to run Protonico in the Gold Cup or the Kelso. Pletcher already plans to run Anchor Down and Tommy Macho in the Kelso.
The field for the Gold Cup and all seven stakes at Belmont on Saturday will be drawn Wednesday.
The expected Gold Cup field, as of Tuesday, was: Effinex (Mike Smith), Hoppertunity (John Velazquez), Mubtaahij (Irad Ortiz Jr.), War Story (TBD) and Watershed (Joel Rosario). Protonico is possible. Samraat will not be entered.
Posted on October 5th, 2016
Clues to Betting Claiming Races
Related News
Posted on October 4th, 2016
Jockey Gallardo to Try Southern California
Jockey Antonio Gallardo plans to ride at Santa Anita Park Bill Denver/EQUI-PHOTOJockey Gallardo to Try Southern California
by Doug McCoy
Jockey Antonio Gallardo, the current national leader in victories with 287 wins in 2016, will move his tack to Southern California at the completion of thePresque Isle Downs race meeting Oct. 6.
Gallardo ranked fourth in wins at this summer'sMonmouth Park meet and leads the current Presque Isle meet with 135 wins.
"We've been thinking about this for some time, and (agent) Mike (Moran) and I agreed that if we were going to make this kind of move, this was the time to do it," Gallardo said. "Having the success we had at Monmouth this summer, and also riding and winning at Belmont (Park) convinced me we were ready to take it to the top levels in the business.
"I know the competition out west will be tough and it won't be easy to get established, but Mike has shown he's one of the top agents in the game. I'm confident he'll be able to get the business. Then it'll be up to me to prove I belong. I feel like I'm at the peak of my game right now, so while I realize it's a big challenge, I'm excited. I feel I'm ready."
Moran is traveling to Southern California Sept. 29 to find business for his rider, with a goal of having Gallardo on horses for the Oct. 8 card at Santa Anita Park.
Moran has had good feedback from horsemen regarding his rider.
"There are some very good riders on (the Southern California) circuit, but we feel Antonio is ready for the challenge to compete with them," Moran said. "In addition to topping the standings at Presque Isle, he's also been riding on the East Coast with good results. We ended up winning the most stakes at Monmouth, and (Gallardo) won 48 races and wound up fifth in the standings while commuting back and forth between Presque Isle and Monmouth. He won at Belmont last week, and he's proven he can ride and win with top competition. He's ready."
Moran said his other rider, Pablo Morales, will also be heading west. Morales has been second in the standings behind Gallardo at Presque Isle each of the past three seasons and has won at least 100 races each year since 2010.
Gallardo, a native of Spain, rode one horse in the U.S. in 2008, then began riding regularly in this country in 2009. He had limited success until 2013, when Moran took the rider's book. Gallardo won 101 races that season then rose to prominence in 2014, when he won 268 races while topping the jockey's standings at both Tampa Bay Downs and Presque Isle that year.
In 2015 Gallardo's 147 wins at Tampa for the 2014-15 meeting set a single-season record for races won at that track. His 161 victories at the Presque Isle meeting in 2015 also set a single-season mark for races won at that track. Last year Gallardo won 320 races. His mounts earned $5.44 million in purses in 2015. He ranked second in the nation in races won, second only to Javier Castellano, who had 344 wins.
Posted on October 1st, 2016
Belmont Saturday Highlight Horse: Danny’s Deceiver will relish wet track in the Vosburgh
timeformusblog.com
Belmont Saturday Highlight Horse: Danny’s Deceiver will relish wet track in the Vosburgh
Posted on
DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus
In three runs over sealed tracks, Danny’s Deceiver has earned two wins and a second, which is better than he’s done in all of his fast track races. It would have seemed unlikely that he could compete against a field of this quality just a few months ago, but he’s made huge strides over his past few starts.
He defeated a strong allowance field on Belmont Stakes day in June, and then made an eye-catching run from far back to nearly win in July. He was still dismissed at 40/1 in the Forego—his stakes debut—but he managed to pass more than half the field while rallying from last to be fourth. The fact that he was able to accomplish such a feat over a fast track speaks to the form that he’s in right now. I take it as a positive sign that Jose Ortiz climbs aboard, and the stiff 6-furlong workout that he put in a few days ago would appear to indicate that he’s feeling good coming into this race. If there’s one horse in this race that could surprise a lot of people and step up to hit the board—or even win—I believe it’s him.
THE PLAY
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,6,7
Trifecta: 7,8 with 2,3,7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8
Posted on October 1st, 2016
Stakes Preview: The Vosburgh is A. P. Indian’s Race To Lose. Will He Show Up?
DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus
>>Go to the PPs for The G1 Vosburgh | Post Time 5:11 EDT Saturday
It’s been a few years since we’ve had a dominant older Grade 1 dirt sprinter in this country, which makes A. P. Indian a welcome presence. He is undoubtedly the leader of this division after sweeping both Grade 1 sprints for older horses at Saratoga, running his winning streak to five. If he shows up, he’s a likely winner of this race—but will he show up? His connections have cast doubt over whether they would run him over a sloppy track, and there is plenty of rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. If he remains on the sidelines, this race really opens up.
Let’s go through the field:
#1, Weekend Hideaway (20/1): This horse has been plagued by inconsistency but seems to have gotten over those issues this year, as he’s put together four straight solid performances, including three wins against New York-breds. However, he was no match for X Y Jet at Gulfstream, or even Stallwalkin’ Dude in this race last year, so it would appear that he’s a cut below the best runners at this level. That said, he would be one worth moving up if the track comes up wet.
#2, Holy Boss (4/1): After reeling off four straight victories towards the first half of his three-year-old campaign, he’s been winless since last year’s Amsterdam at Saratoga. He’s hardly been disgraced in any of those races, and some might even argue that he’s improved as a four-year-old. However, the fact remains that he’s been in position to win in four straight races and just has not been able to seal the deal. Today his task is complicated by an inside draw in a race that features other speed and stalking types drawn to his outside. He resented getting stuck down inside in the True North two back, and he could be in for a similar trip here.
#3, Joking (8/1): After struggling to get through his allowance conditions for what seemed like an eternity, Joking has come on suddenly this year at the age of seven. Charlton Baker is having a fantastic year on the NYRA circuit and this runner’s success in the Grade 2 True North has to be considered his crowning achievement. That said, he missed some races over the summer and now must be set to top even his prior performance while returning from a layoff dating back to mid-June. The hurdles are significant, but he does love Belmont Park and ran a competitive speed figure when last seen. I’ll be using him underneath in exactas and trifectas.
#4, Green Gratto (30/1):
#5, A. P. Indian (1/1):
There is little to criticize when analyzing this gelding’s recent form. He’s equally effective at distances ranging from six to seven furlongs; he can race on the lead or come from off the pace; and he’s run speed figures that are simply a few points higher than those of almost all of his competitors. In winning 10 of his 16 lifetime starts, he’s finished out of the money only twice. However, one of those subpar performances did come over a sloppy track in last year’s Phoenix at Keeneland. It’s possible that he needs a fast track to produce his very best effort, and he’s unlikely to get that on Saturday. However, if that is the case, his connections have indicated that he’d be unlikely to run. If the track is anything close to fast and he shows up, I’m not trying to beat him.
#6, X Y Jet (7/2): In many ways, this horse is the real wild card in the race. He is the only runner in this field to have consistently run speed figures that suggest he could give A. P. Indian a scare. However, he has not been seen since late March, and his connections picked an awfully ambitious spot in which to bring him back. Speed is the name of the game for this son of Kantharos, and he will try to take them as far as he can up front. However, he’s never encountered a horse that can finish up like A. P. Indian, and I wonder if an early tussle with Green Gratto could leave him somewhat vulnerable late. It’s also fair to wonder whether he can produce his best form in New York. Jorge Navarro’s runners have been effective at Monmouth and Gulfstream, but he gets only a 54 trainer rating on the NYRA circuit. Perhaps his Golden Shaheen effort is supposed to ease those concerns, but I still need to see it here to believe it.
#7, Stallwalkin’ Dude (8/1):
He nearly won this race last year after boldly forging to the lead past midstretch under Irad Ortiz. However, the game Rock Fall had just enough left in reserve to battle back for the victory. Things have not gone smoothly since then, as he’s had his ups and downs and seemed to completely tail off during the spring and early summer of this year. However, he got back on track at Saratoga and earned another Grade 1 placing in the Forego. He was never going to beat A. P. Indian that day, but he still ran a creditable race. Now he shortens up to arguably his best distance while in some of the best form of his career. I don’t anticipate that he’ll beat A. P. Indian, but he’d become a major player in the event that the favorite scratches.
#8, Dannie’s Deceiver (20/1):
THE PLAY
If A. P. Indian (#5) runs, he’s my top pick, but I think there are a few runners that could be used underneath him in exactas and trifectas, including Stallwalkin’ Dude (#7) and Dannie’s Deceiver (#8). If the favorite is scratched, then Dannie’s Deceiver would inherit the role of my top selection.
With A. P. Indian:
Win/Place: 8
Exacta: 5 with 7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 7,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,6 with 7,8
Without A. P. Indian:
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,6,7
Posted on October 1st, 2016
TIMEFORMUS SATURDAY BELMONT PARK
Whitegate (#1)
Was steadied in traffic when attempting to move up the rail last time.
Faces a much easier field today.
Charlton Baker gets a 100 trainer rating with runners coming off layoffs of this length.
10/1 on ML
———–
Race 6:
Reconsider It (#10)
Was done in by a wide trip in her debut.
Was hindered by a slow pace last time.
Gets a huge rider switch to Junior Alvarado.
Posted on October 1st, 2016
Stakes Preview: In the G1 Beldame at Belmont, Don’t Overlook This Longshot
This Beldame features three Grade 1 winners, in the form of Apple Blossom winner Forever Unbridled, surprise Test winner Paola Queen, and Mother Goose winner Off the Tracks. However, it’s still hard to shake the feeling that this has come up as one of the weaker Grade 1 races run in this division. The absence of stars like Songbird, Beholder, Stellar Wind, and Cavorting is certainly felt here.
Let’s go through the field:
#1, Tiger Ride (15/1): She’s actually run pretty well on dirt and put to rest any concerns about whether she could get this distance with her runner-up finish in a restricted stakes at Saratoga this summer. She deserves some credit for making the first run into a fast pace (color-coded in red) on that occasion in a race that ultimately fell apart late. However, she still lost to Rachel’s Temper and that one is hardly a serious threat to win this race. At best, she’s worth considering for the bottom rungs of trifectas and superfectas.
#2, Forever Unbridled (1/1):
#3, Rachel’s Temper (10/1): While I respect the year that Charlton Baker has been having, I still think he’s asking a lot of this mare. This is a horse that really struggled to get through her allowance conditions and fell into an absolutely perfect setup sitting well back off a fast pace when she finally earned a stakes win last time out. She is highly unlikely to get the same scenario here, and I’ll be surprised if she’s a factor.
#4, Penwith (10/1):
#5, Going for Broke (6/1): She barely beat Rachel’s Temper two back and I’m not convinced that she topped that performance despite earning a Grade 1 placing in her next start. I wonder if she’ll be overbet here because Songbird’s name shows up in her Alabama running line. That performance looks better in print than it does when watching the replay, as she got an absolutely perfect trip coming through on the rail around the far turn and still had trouble putting away the third place finisher, who was seemingly spent at the top of the stretch. I prefer others.
#6, Paola Queen (15/1): She never should have been 55/1 in the Test, but her win in that race was still a surprise. I generally love turnbacks and I have to believe that it was the shortened distance that allowed her to step up with her career-best performance last time. While she performed respectably enough in her three route attempts, she didn’t run fast enough in those races to compete against the likes of today’s older rivals. I’ll be surprised if she’s able to pull off the Grade 1 double here.
#7, Off the Tracks (5/2): There’s a lot to like about this filly, but I’m wondering if she’s a bit of a trap in this spot. Her odds are probably not going to be that much higher than those of Forever Unbridled, but I believe her older rival is a far more likely winner of this race. She obviously deserves accolades for her performance in the Test, which earned her a 123 speed figure—easily best in the field. That said, she was a turnback that day, just like Paola Queen, and she was not able to reproduce that form in the Prioress next time out. While she did earn a Grade 1 victory in the Mother Goose, she may have benefitted from a surface that was favoring inside speed on that occasion. Her lone race over a wet track was one of her worst, and there are still questions about her stamina. I’m not going to be shocked if she steps up and wins this race, but I don’t think a price around 5/2 or 3/1 would represent fair value. She’s somewhere in my play, but I prefer others on top.
THE PLAY
While I fully acknowledge that this is Forever Unbridled’s (#2) race to lose, I have to take a shot with Penwith (#4), given the expected value. I would bet her to win at odds of 8/1 or higher.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Box: 2,4
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL
Posted on October 1st, 2016
FULL GATE FOR RODEO DRIVE: GI Rodeo Drive S. Saturday, featuring a 14-horse scramble to seize a A Win and Youre In qualifying bid to the Nov. 5 GI Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf
RODEO DRIVE S.-GI, $300,000, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/4mT
2 Frenzified (GB) Yeats (Ire) Gonzalez Cassidy 10-1
3 Queen of The Sand (Ire) Footstepsinthsnd (GB) Blanc Gallagher 20-1
4 Avenge War Front Prat Mandella 6-1
7 Majestic Heat Unusual Heat Stevens Mandella 12-1
8 Fresh Feline K Kitten's Joy Sutherland Shirreffs 20-1
9 Generosidade (Uru) Nedawi (GB) Pereira Lobo 12-1
10 Nancy From Nairobi (GB) Sixties Icon (GB) Smith Sadler 10-1
11 Decked Out K Street Boss Desormeaux Desormeaux12-1
12 Zipessa K City Zip Geroux Stidham 7-2
13 Elektrum (Ire) High Chaparral (Ire) Espinoza Sadler 5-1
Posted on October 1st, 2016