Welcome to Los Ponies Longshots! Each week, America’s Best Racing’s Southern California correspondent Jose Contreras – Los Ponies to those who follow him on Twitter – will provide two or three longshots at 8-to-1 odds or better on the morning line that he identifies as strong value bets. Contreras also will map out a betting strategy for how to play his selections and keep track of his return on investment (ROI).
Stop back each week if you love a longshot!
Saturday, Sept. 10
Los Alamitos, Race 5, 6:58 p.m. ET
#3 Song for Jade (8-1): She is the main speed of the field and is taking a drop in class to a level that I think she fits much better. The fields at Del Mar had much better competition than this group. The blinkers are going back on and this jockey is known for getting them out of the gate in a hurry. She is the only one that has consistently shown sub :22 speed for the opening quarter-mile. If she is able to get the lead without much pressure, I think she will be tough to catch down the stretch.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 Exacta: 3 with 1,2,6,7,8 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 1,2,6,7,8 with 3 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$5 Win on Song For Jade ($5)
$5 Place on Song For Jade ($5)
$.50 Trifecta: 3 with 2,7 with 1,2,5,6,7,8 ($5)
$.50 Trifecta: 2,7 with 3 with 1,2,5,6,7,8 ($5)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,2,5,6,7,8 with 2,7 with 3 ($5)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$10 Win on Song For Jade ($10)
$3 Exacta: 3 with 2,7 ($6)
$2 Exacta: 2,7 with 3 ($4)
$.50 Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,6,7,8 with 1,2,6,7,8 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,2,6,7,8 with 3 with 1,2,6,7,8 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,2,6,7,8 with 1,2,6,7,8 with 3 ($10)
Sunday, Sept. 11
Los Alamitos, Race 4, 6:28 p.m. ET
#3 Picture Tube (8-1): This gelding ran too good to lose last time when missing by a nose after being next-to-last early on in the race after getting bumped at the start. He had to maneuver his way through a field of 12 and had to go about seven wide in the stretch. One more jump and he gets the win that day. That day he was trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He was claimed by trainer Duff Shidaker and Edgar Orozco will be aboard today. That’s why he’s 8-1 on the morning line and I like it. If Baffert still had this gelding in this same spot, he would be much lower than that.
Strategy on $10 Budget
$1 Exacta: 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 ($5)
$1 Exacta: 1,2,4,5,6 with 3 ($5)
Strategy on $25 Budget
$5 Win on Picture Tube ($5)
$.50 Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,2,4,5,6 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 ($10)
Strategy on $50 Budget
$10 Win on Picture Tube ($10)
$5 Exacta: 3 with 2,4 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,2,4,5,6 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,6 ($10)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,2,4,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 3 ($10)
ROI Year to date: $5440 wagered/$3695.95 returned
