Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2016: Four Big Winners - The Kentucky Derby Post

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Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2016: Four Big Winners

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Photo: Keeneland

The Breeders’ Cup Challenge 2016 'Win & You’re In' Series has concluded and the Juvenile division is well represented by its four winners.

The series concluded across all divisions last weekend, but the juveniles really stood out. At Keeneland, we witnessed a powerful statement by the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity. In the Champagne Stakes at Belmont, the horse that broke the worst was anything but done. In a thrilling stretch duel photo finish, the favorite was unable to hang on and finished second by the slimmest of margins.

And the four big winners are:

Not This Time (Iroquois Stakes)

Gormley (FrontRunner Stakes)

Classic Empire (Breeders’ Futurity)

Practical Joke (Champagne Stakes)

Compliments of the Breeders’ Cup and the Challenge Series, the entry fee for the Juvenile has been paid so anticipate all four of these young talents to remain listed as probable. In fact, consider all of them as potential winners because their last race was terrific.

But, that’s only four spots in a 14 horse field. So, which 10 horses should we expect to see join them in the starting gate for the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on November 5.

A quick reminder, seven juveniles earn an entry through the Challenge Series and graded stakes points. However, the remaining the seven spots are decided by the panel of experts to ensure the talent in the field is as strong as it can be. Without further ado here is the list of official point earners through last weekend minus the the big four.

Points	Horse	Trainer
22	Klimt	Bob Baffert
10	Straight Fire	Keith Desormeaux
8	Lookin At Lee	Steve Asmussen
6	Gunnevera	Antonio Sano
6	Royal Copy	D. Wayne Lukas
6	Syndergaard	Todd Pletcher
5	Tip Tap Tapizar	Steve Asmussen
4	Big League	Peter Miller
4	Bitumen	Eddie Kenneally
4	Favorable Outcome	Chad Brown
4	Golden Hawk	Mark Casse
4	Midnight Pleasure	Shelbe Ruis
4	Pretty Boy Flash	Steve Asmussen
4	Wild Shot	George Arnold
3	Recruiting Ready	Horacio DePaz
2	Han Sense	Mike Maker
2	Random Walk	Richard Violette
2	Romeo O Romeo	Brian Williamson
2	Sonic Mule	Todd Pletcher
2	Thirstforlife	Mark Casse
1	King and His Court	Alexander Patykewich
1	Star Empire	Wesley Ward
1	Zartera	Steve Asmussen

Here is what we know: Klimt, Straight Fire and Lookin at Lee have also qualified and will start should their connections choose to move forward. Outside of that, everything else can be considered my best guess. To begin let’s focus on the juveniles that are locks to be selected by the panel.

Points are awarded based on performances in graded stakes races. To earn those points a horse must finish in the top three. Though some of the juveniles that will make the field will have at least some points, we start with a horse that has zero.

Bred in Florida and undefeated in the Sunshine State, Three Rules has caught the attention of many racing fans. None of those five wins at Gulfstream Park were graded stakes races but all of them were dominant. This is a key example of why the experts have the leverage to trump the points rankings and use one of their seven selections to usher in a horse that has a superior resume and should be considered a top 14 contender.

All signs point to that becoming a reality, so you can expect to see the son of Gone Astray – Joy Rules to be one of the fourteen starters. It will be the first race of his career outside of Gulfstream Park but we should expect the Floridian, trained by Jose Pinchin, to be ready.

Anyone can argue that the horse that lost by a nose in the Champagne Stakes deserves to qualify as much as the winner does. Anyone includes me, so Syndergaard will be a starter in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Prior to the near miss in the Champagne this New York-bred and Todd Pletcher trained colt saw the winner's circle twice in two career races. The latter of the two was the top spot in the Funny Cide at Saratoga. Pletcher earned his second and most recent Juvenile win at Santa Anita Park with Shanghai Bobby in 2012. Though this horse has not earned the respect and same odds as his last champion, Syndergaard should still be considered a legitimate play on a number of different tickets.

Gunnevera, the son of Dialed In, has a few things going for him. Number one is that he took home a win in the grade 2 Saratoga Special. It earned him six points which leaves him outside of the top 7 but he cannot be ignored. Secondly, if you like Three Rules you should respect Gunnevera enough to give him another shot. In his career debut, the Antonio Sano trainee finished runner up to Three Rules in their first maiden race. Next time out Gunnevera was not as close but good enough to use both races to his advantage. He would win his next two starts.

Fifth place may have been a big disappointment in the Breeders’ Futurity. Secondly, his ability to win at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile distance may be a valid concern, but I believe Gunnevera has done enough to secure one of the seven invitations.

In case you’re not counting, that’s ten quality juveniles. Barring any defections due to choice or injury I’ve given you seven qualifiers and three locks that will be selected. Now onto the final four spots. Be prepared as I’m going to give you my answers without as much confidence but enough to consider them as good guesses.

The Breeders’ Cup is a global racing event. A few Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners that began their racing career in Europe are Vale of York ’09, Wilko ’04 and Johannesburg ’01. Might some U.S. juveniles get snubbed by the panel because the Breeders’ Cup is pushing for a global presence in every race? Maybe, but I do not see that as a big issue. Additionally, in 2016, we’re talking about two winners of pretty good Juvenile prep races outside of the U.S. Therefore, Syphax, winner of the Acomb Stakes at York, and Golden Hawk, winner of the Grey Stakes at Woodbine, seem to have a good shot at being chosen by the panel.

That leaves two more spots. A safe bet is Tip Tap Tapizar who has never finished outside of the top three in four lifetime starts. Three of those were stakes races. Two of them were graded stakes races that earned the Steve Asmussen trainee 5 points. Last but not least, I have already praised the winner of both graded stakes; Classic Empire in the Bashford Manor–G3 and Gunnevera in the Saratoga Special-G2.

He will need the support of the panel but I believe the son of Tapizar, 2012 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champion, already has it. Look for the Winchell Thoroughbreds silks to be present in the field of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The last spot could go a number of different ways. If I was basing my guess on points alone Royal Copy, runner up to Practical Joke in the Hopeful, would be it. If I was leaning towards another graded stakes winner Bitumen would grab the final spot. But, Royal Copy only has one graded stakes start and Bitumen hasn’t done much more since his win in the six furlong Sanford–G3 at Saratoga.

Instead, I’ll defer to a general assumption; 14 horses will not start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Last year we did see a full field at Keeneland. Prior to that, it has been very rare that as many as fourteen loaded into the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In fact, I would argue there’s a better chance of less than thirteen versus fourteen.

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About Me

Meet Bryan Brinkmeyer – Chicago, IL

Growing up across the river from the Bluegrass State I was able to spend a lot of summer days at Ellis Park, Henderson, KY.

Likewise, the first Saturday in May was always a celebrated family event. In 2000, I made my inaugural Kentucky Derby appearance and since, I have made it an annual tradition because there’s no other city, or weekend, in the racing world like Louisville, KY on Derby Day.

Although the story of a Kentucky Derby winner is legendary, a champions trail is what The Kentucky Derby Post is all about. The coverage begins when Juvenile season starts and continues until the field is set, the picks are in and the roses are earned.

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