THIRD FINGER FUND LLC by, @BMDPicksHorses

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Website of @BMDPICKSHORSES BETS AND BETTING ADVICE. Soon to be sole manager of The 3rd Finger Fund LLC a NV Betting Entity ; Horse Racing & Sports Betting.

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WHAT I LEARNED ABOUT INVESTING IN STOCKS FROM BETTING ON HORSES

You are here: Home / Horse Racing Business / WHAT I LEARNED ABOUT INVESTING IN STOCKS FROM BETTING ON HORSES

WHAT I LEARNED ABOUT INVESTING IN STOCKS FROM BETTING ON HORSES

September 23, 2011 by 3 Comments

As a longtime recreational bettor on horse races and a serious investor in stocks, I have found that guiding principles apply to both activities.

Avoid Touts and Tips. Horse racing and stock investing are ventures in which someone “in the know" is eager to provide you with a tip on the next sure thing. Usually avoid these people like the plague because, if they really knew, they would not be telling you at the racetrack or informing millions of viewers on a cable TV business channel. Without fail, every year right before the Kentucky Derby, a so-called wise-guys’ horse emerges only to badly falter when it comes time to show what he has.

Watch Out for Insider Trading. Regard all purportedly “inside information" with much skepticism. To be sure, there are times when a backside worker you know has a valuable scoop about a maiden colt or filly that is going to contend in a race based on sensational recent workouts. Trouble is, while a bet on the maiden could be worthwhile, the informant has probably told enough people  that the horse’s odds at post time will be too low, given the level of risk.

In the same vein, say an acquaintance of yours who is a company executive confides that his firm’s stock will receive a boost from a yet-undisclosed impending acquisition by a competitor. Remember, if you buy the stock before the information goes public, that pesky Securities and Exchange Commission may find out and nominate you for a compulsory stay at a federal minimum security facility. Tips on horse races don’t have this downside.

Always ask yourself why you are the privileged recipient of the inside information and why the tipster thinks so much of you to let you in on the secret.

Research, Research, Research. Investing in stocks profitably and betting on horses just to break even require a thorough analysis of the underlying fundamentals. Regardless of what other people tell you, even experts, do your own delving into the details.

Be Selective. After you thoroughly research stocks and horses, there will be a lot more companies and entries that you don’t want to bet on than there are that you do want to bet on.  Being patient and disciplined and sitting on your hands with a cash position while waiting on promising opportunities is a mark of a shrewd investor or bettor.

Never Forget the Meaning of Value. Advertisements on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other websites sometimes bill “stocks to own for life." Yet the late investment authority Benjamin Graham correctly taught students like Warren Buffett that every stock has an intrinsic value determined by the discounted value of its future earnings stream. No matter how strong a company happens to be, its stock can be overvalued at a point in time and therefore not worth buying. Race entries, like stocks, can be fairly valued, undervalued, or overvalued. Whether it is picking stocks or picking racehorses, look for the overlays and avoid the underlays. Otherwise, your cash pile will contract over time. Neither Havre de Grace to win at 1-9 odds nor Apple at $2,000 per share is a prudent buy.

Diversify. This precept–perhaps the most important of all–is about spreading risk and managing money. “Putting all your eggs in one basket" is to be avoided if you want to have any eggs left to invest or wager another day. Pick-six syndicates allow a bettor to own a fraction of a big ticket with lots of combinations, just as ETFs allow one to buy, say, the S&P 500.

Hedge. Since no one can consistently predict short-term market movements, cautious investors use various options strategies like puts and calls and simultaneous short/long positions to temper market risks. Likewise, savvy bettors rely on exacta boxes and other methods of hedging just in case the favorite gets nipped at the wire.

Control Emotions. This is difficult to do when the Dow plunges 500 points in a single day and you are down four or five percent of your portfolio. When you haven’t cashed a ticket in days, it can also be agonizing and destructive of self-confidence. However, successful investors and horse players are inevitably going to have winning streaks and losing streaks and should take them in stride. A trait of true professionals is that it is not easy to discern from observing them whether they have been winners or losers. If you can’t handle the emotional ups and downs of the stock market, turn your portfolio over to an expert you trust. If you can’t handle the emotional ups and downs of betting horses, wager only enough to introduce some fun and chance into your day at the races, but don’t bet enough to care much even if you lose it all.

After this week’s global stock-market sell-off, if you are still invested in stocks and remain reasonably calm and sane, you have passed this emotional-stability test with flying colors, although your judgment may be in question.

Minimize Takeout. Stock broker commissions can eat away at profits if you trade frequently, although the advent of online trading has greatly diminished trading costs. On the other hand, the relatively high takeout percentages on horse-race bets (as opposed to other gambling games of skill) have generally not diminished in the Internet era—which is why wagering on horse races can be an entertaining diversion but is an unattractive way for making money. Unless you bet enough to demand sizeable rebates, you are almost certain to lose over a sustained period of time.

Postscript: I was visiting Saratoga Springs, New York, in early-to-mid August 2011 at which time world stock markets were trading erratically, but mostly on the downside–the U. S. markets lost nearly 20 percent ot their value in a four-week period in July and August.  While I was in Saratoga, the races were going on in the afternoon and the Fasig-Tipton sale of yearlings was being held at night.  I wondered to myself what kind of person can risk money betting on horses in the afternoon (a few of which he or she may own), check the stock market at 4 PM to see how his or her portfolio has fared in a brutal market, and then be in a sufficiently healthy emotional state to attend the sale at night as a buyer or seller of untried and expensive futures in the form of yearlings that may never make it to the races. These folks truly live life on the financial edge.

Copyright © 2011 Horse Racing Business

Filed Under: Horse Racing Business

Comments

  1. While I enjoy reading your thoughts regarding the racing industry and do agree with most of what you have written, I must respectfully disagree with your first piece of advice regarding Touts and Tips.

    The issue I have with that section is that it fails to separate the Touts that purport to be “in the know" from the group of professionals that take great pride in providing useful information that may help the bettor to make a profit, and at the least (in my case and those of others I know) to also provide the methodology for the selections given to help bettors and handicappers to strengthen their arsenal of handicapping and wagering tools.

    Particularly considering the handicapping process consists of a myriad of variables, often unique to the type of race being handicapped, reading another person’s opinion of the contenders in the field and the reasons why those particular horses have a higher probability for success than the rest may be of value as it may point out a valid factor or contender otherwise missed, or perhaps just as valuable, point out a vulnerable favorite.

  2. Bill Shanklin says:

    Ellis,

    Yes, it is wise to consult informed analysis from reputable and paid investment research services or services like yours. Since people normally pay for these, they don’t return as customers if the advice is continually unsound. But there is a lot of advice about stocks and horses from people who don’t know what they are talking about or have an agenda. Why would an individual give a stranger a tip on a stock or horse for free? Wouldn’t it be better to keep the play for himself or herself?

    When you buy the DRF, the picks are paid for in the price of the publication. Same for the analysis I pay for from various stock research services. I don’t consider these to be touts and tips.

  3. One huge difference, which magnifies racing’s disadvantage vis-a-vis stock trading: the very different tax rules, which, among other things, impose ludicrous withholding requirements on big scores in exotic wagers and prevent the deduction of losses in excess of winnings. Neither of those limits apply to the thieves on Wall Street.

    This is something I know a bit about. See Zorn, “The Federal Income Tax Treatment of Gambling: Fairness or Obsolete Moralism," 49 Tax Lawyer 1 (1995). Still valid.

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Why do Wall Street and Las Vegas behave so differently? “When Wall Street first opens, everybody starts trading. In this town, when a game gets going, everybody stops betting,”

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Wall Street bond broker turned Las Vegas race and sports book operator In 2010, Lee Amaitis, former executive of Cantor Fitzgerald and then CEO of BCG Partners, looked at Las Vegas sports books and asked a simple question: Why do Wall Street and Las Vegas behave so differently? “When Wall Street first opens, everybody starts trading. In this town, when a game gets going, everybody stops betting," he told Wired Magazine. “That’s the dumbest thing I ever heard. The game is the market. Why not let people bet the market?" That sentiment has fueled Amaitis’ quest to liberalize sports gaming, a process that has relied on the proliferation of technology, increased market transparency and a more open-minded approach by regulators. Long before daily fantasy sites FanDuel and Draft Kings—two platforms that require the mass adoption of technology and algorithms—launched, Amaitis had a vision of allowing any Nevada visitors to trade in-game during live sports events. It’s Wall Street meets Las Vegas Boulevard, a revolution that has fueled strong growth in the Nevada sports gaming sector and Amaitis’ firm CG Technology, which manages several prominent Nevada sports books and provides technology and risk management solutions for casinos around the globe. CG Technology is just getting started. Following the passage of two recent laws in Nevada, the firm could accelerate a process to reform and commoditize sports gaming as a traditional investment vehicle, a process that can move the industry out of the shadows and attract the interest of hedge funds and other alternative investors. Looking to make a deal Amaitis got his start in the horse race industry long before he entered Wall Street. Although he wasn’t really fascinated by the gambling in the Sport of Kings, early-on he recognized the importance of liquidity to the industry, a lesson that defines his career. “Horse racing doesn’t survive unless there is a purse provided by pari-mutuel wagering," he says. From the 1970s until 2008, Amaitis worked in the financial markets within the inter-dealer broker space. In the mid-1990s, working for Cantor Fitzgerald, he moved to London to run the broker operations and had a realization. Sports gambling was and still is legal in London, with some of the top bookmakers allowing wagers on virtually anything. “It fascinated me that the same people we were doing business with in stocks, bonds, interest rates and commodities, were all gambling with English bookmakers," he says. Amaitis saw the similarities between the business of the bookmakers and the inter-broker model. “When you look at them, you say, this is an interesting business. From an inter-dealer business, we buy from ‘A’ and sell to ‘B’ simultaneously. I asked, ‘Why couldn’t this be put into a business model that said we could create a marketplace for sports?’ Of course, it’s easier said than done." That answer would be found through the development of technology to beat competitors and bring more transactions to the market, another underlying theme of his career. eSpeed, for which Amaitis served as COO, was founded in 1996 and was one of the first major platforms to trade bonds and currencies on a global scale. “Trading evolved from pieces of paper, to multiple telephones, to trading across technology," he said. “Cantor Fitzgerald, eSpeed and BGC Partners were one of the first to introduce technology." From bonds to sports books Cantor Fitzgerald lost 658 employees on 9/11, wiping out its entire inter-dealer broker operations. Just weeks after the attacks, Amaitis was part of a team that rebuilt Cantor’s broker business. He served as a senior executive under Howard Lutnick from 2001 to 2008. By 2004, Amaitis began to explore the industry of gaming and wagering. He founded Cantor Gaming, which would later become CG Technology. Amaitis officially relocated in late to 2008 to continue pursuing race and sports book operations. He also intended to manufacture and distribute mobile gaming devices. CG Technology offered sports wagering as a gaming option on the company’s platforms and that was fundamental in CG Technology taking shape. “The sports concept allowed CG Technology to take over the casinos’ sports books and provide the underlying technology." With the technology in place, the next challenge was breaking the mold of traditional sports wagering through the expansion of technology and the adoption of the Wall Street account model in Las Vegas. “My focus was to get individuals to wager on an account, as opposed to the old style of waiting and wagering at the window, which was an anonymous wagering model," he says. “This is basically all that Nevada ever did. A few companies had tried account wagering, but they didn’t put much effort into it." The convergence of mobile technology and individual accounts fueled a remarkable surge in demand for CG Technology products and services. “We told people we would accept higher limits for wagers, and provide more liquidity to the wagering markets if they opened an account with us and bet on account through our technology," he says. “Over the last five years, we’ve been adding to that technology to expand the footprint." As mobile expanded, CG Technology became the first company to handle more than $1 billion in sports wagers. “Since we entered the market, the total handle in Nevada has doubled from roughly $2 billion to $4 billion. We’ve had a good part in that given the ability to trade on account. More than 60% to 70% of these wagers are done over mobile devices." The risk similarities To someone who spent several decades managing brokers on Wall Street, sports wagering is similar to market-making specialists on Wall Street. “[This business] speaks to the inter-dealer in me. In my previous career, I bought from company ‘A’ and sold to company ‘B’ simultaneously, so there was no risk," he said. However, running a sports operation carries risk. “With [the Super Bowl between] Seattle and the Patriots, there was a market for that game. Our job is to ensure there are as many buyers as sellers. Because people need to pay for a wager, they are betting 110 to make 100 on every bet or 11/10. In that 10¢, we have our commission value risk. Based on that, you automatically have built in value on your balance. But the world doesn’t always work out perfectly. Sometimes there will be $10,000 traded one day, and $12,000 the other. Now you have to try to get yourself into a position where you get $12,000 both ways or if you accept the risk." Like Wall Street, sports books require a boost in liquidity to reduce exposure to one side or the other. “The more liquidity, the more volume you take, the less risk," he says. “The only way that liquidity grows is through the growth of technology. Our goal was to create multiple transactions the same way that Wall Street did for Treasuries, commodities and foreign exchange. Technology allows volumes to increase dramatically." Enabling the "trade" The underlying technology has propelled an explosion in usage. Gamblers are able to use mobile platforms at the pool, in the restaurants or in their hotel rooms rather than walk into the sports book. And Amaitis’ terminology parallels his years on Wall Street. “We’ve made it easier for them to be able to what I call ‘trade,’ as oppose to ‘wager,’" he says. “I treat it like Wall Street. I treat it like trading. There are smart people out there, and there’s an opportunity to build a business on each transaction." CG Technology is likely the first company to take on the advance quantitative traders who have taken on Las Vegas during the last decade. “We were probably the first to take on the ‘smarter players.’ We assume they have algorithmic models, that they handicap their games, and wager with us, in some cases significant amounts of money," he says. “But when you look at some of these people, they’re actually just trading. They just are using sport as a commodity. They are buying and selling something they find to be of value. And that volume is more than just simple wagers on winners and losers of an NFL game on Sunday. The vast adoption of Big Data has allowed CG Technology to create an in-game market in sports. Traders can wager on whether a team will drive the length of the field to score a touchdown or a field goal. They can wager on whether a batter will strike out in his next time at bat. It can go even deeper—offering odds on the likelihood that a tennis player’s next serve will hit the net within a matter of seconds. The power of CG’s underlying technology enables buyers and sellers to trade on all aspects of the game, with tech taking a commission from each transaction. “I look at this completely as a commission business. The less risk that I can take, the better off I’m going to be. Once the data comes faster, the more people will be able to invest and trade. That’s why account trading is so important." The deregulatory drive Currently, Federal laws prevent Americans from gambling on sports outside of four states: Delaware, Montana, Oregon and Nevada. The latter currently comprises the largest sports book market at roughly $4 billion annually. That pales in comparison, however, to the amount of money wagered in black markets around the country. NBA commissioner Adam Silver raised eyebrows earlier this year when he stated that that, “nearly $400 billion is illegally wagered on sports each year." That number seems extremely high; one suggesting that every American wagers roughly $1,500 a year on sports. Conservative estimates place it near $80 billion each year, although Amaitis says market estimates indicate it’s close to $200 billion. CG Technology stands to benefit if New Jersey is able to legalize sports gaming, which was part of a lawsuit in the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals and was set for a July ruling. Should New Jersey be able to add sports books, the company has already built a base where it can expand the scale anywhere it is legal to gamble. “We can simply turn the switch," says Amaitis. He sees this as a broader movement by many states. “Two to three years ago, I don’t think I would see a push for legalization in my lifetime," he says. “Now I read every day that another state is closer. What state doesn’t want that tax revenue? If you start reading other people’s positions on it – particularly politicians – why can’t we regulate this market? The underground is in the hundreds of billions." The solution, he says, is to look to how Nevada has managed the industry, and use its road map to build a legal gaming sector. The sports gaming industry doubled to $4 billion during the last few years. Other states will see this and want a piece of that pie. With the technology we’ve built, the support from regulators here and our ability to manage risk, we see an acceptance of this industry. The desert game changer While other states are seeking ways to relax the federal sports gambling laws, Nevada is expanding its reach to maintain its own competitive edge. Companies like CG Technology and regulators explored ways to boost the flow of gambling funds to the state while helping the sports books expand beyond today’s traditional business model. The expansion of Las Vegas’ $4 billion sports gaming industry is set to accelerate thanks to a game-changing decision by the Nevada legislators to liberalize investment and domiciling laws for financial entities looking to facilitate sports trading. In June, two bills passed the Nevada state legislature that will merge Wall Street trading with Las Vegas sports gaming in its most advanced form. The passage of Senate Bill 443 will allow the creation of investment funds managed by or on behalf of the state’s top sports handicappers. “What Senate Bill 443 does is allow a fund to run in the state of Nevada that allows individuals to invest in that fund, and have someone making trades on sports," says Amaitis. “Those investors will either share in the profits or the loss of that portfolio manager." Investors from out of state can now invest in a fund that uses a handicapper’s knowledge of the sports betting market to produce alpha. The pro-regulation approach has the capacity to generate billions more for the industry and, of course, more money for state revenues. In addition, the laws have already generated significant interest from portfolio managers across the county. “After a CNBC interview of our lead counsel, we received a ton of cold calls just asking us about this law," says Amaitis. A second bill that just became law allows Nevada to become an anchor state for sports book operations. According to the law, a licensed sports book in Nevada can manage sports books located in other legal jurisdictions. This naturally requires liberalization and cooperation from other states across the nation, but if other states are able to get the federal government to reduce its ban, book operators like CG Technology stand to make a significant profit on a commission basis as liquidity in the legal sports gaming market surges. The registration for sports funds under Senate Bill 443 would require the same collection of investor information and registration of the entity in the state, in addition to a state-based banking account. But between investment in oil and gas futures or the purchasing of stocks and bonds, Amaitis says that they are creating a platform that turns sports into another commodity. “We think this will be a game changer for the state of Nevada," he says. The legislature and regulators are very excited about its potential. The tax-free state seems eager to welcome new residents, and Amaitis is eager to offer its technology as a launching point for investors looking to profit on an expanding sports gaming industry. “If I can get people the opportunity to be able to plug into my platform and trade sports because they have an algorithmic desire to do it, we would welcome it," he says. “They can connect to any other marketplace from Nevada. They’ll be able to connect from here and trade other commodities." But with that expansion, CG Technology will be challenged continually by investors and gamblers alike as they build this industry from the ground up. “This portfolio type of management will bring people who are tied into big data," says Amaitis. “They are looking for value in price. We need to stay ahead of them on issues like what player is injured, what the weather is going to be like." Amaitis’ efforts confirm another trait shared by Wall Street bond dealers and Las Vegas bookmakers ­— he’s always trying to stay a step ahead of the market.

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InstaBram: Betting on Wall Street

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Is investing in the stock market like betting on horse racing? They have more in common than you might think. Bram Weinstein explains in this week's InstaBram.

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Watch "Sheikhzayedroad - 250th Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series) - 2016" on YouTube

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Sheikhzayedroad - 250th Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series) - 2016

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have just watched this and how unlucky was quest for more,.also remember  seeing sheikzayedroad running against pether moon and Flintshire some while ago and he wasn't fast enough. BUT TO ME THE BEST WINNER OF THE DONCASTER CUP WAS WITHOUT DOUBT  PERSIAN PUNCH HE LEAD FROM START AND WON BY 7 LENGTHS. TAKES SOME DOING.
1

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Landfall- Willis Towers Watson Champions Juvenile Stakes (Group 3)- 2016

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Landfall remains unbeaten and wins the G3 Willis Towers Watson Champions Juvenile Stakes in fine style.



He booked his spot in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf



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Watch "Harbour Law wins the St Leger" on YouTube

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Harbour Law wins the St Leger

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Laura Mongan becomes the first woman to train the winner of the Classic in a dramatic race

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Comments • 25

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mike watters
if you open your ears the horse was trained in epsom
1
Peter Much ugh
Anotherblonde has had a blonde moment,
Andrew Harman
seamie heffernan you dirty bastard costin me grand fuckin dirtbird
Peter Much ugh
Andrew,same here mate,£1500 tho,gutted.
slenjamiah
did the commentator call Doncaster Epsom by mistake lol
uhegbu
Biggest shock since Moonax won this in 1994.
uhegbu
Let us not take away from another up and coming trainer who will have many more big days like this. Reminiscent of when Hugo Palmer won his first classic with the 2,000 Guineas winner, Galileo Gold in May and Frankie saluting that memorable victory.
richard macmillan
mark what does harzand got to do with idaho you dumb fuck you don't know anything about horse racing so fuck off
Harry Burkey
took his time to get going nice ride
anotherblonde
Last time I looked the St Leger was run at Doncaster not Epsom. Mike Cattermole is really an idiot presenter, and kicking him off Channel 4 was a good move. I recall he was commentating when Agnes World won, after he had said it had been sent to fill up the horsebox. He also asked a female owner of Gold Cheongsams how old she was???? and when sent to interview Jean-Pierre Guillambert at Goodwood said he did not speak French..... nor does Jean-Pierre lol
Misba ahmed
he said first epsom trainer winning st leger
1
uhegbu
The first British Classic winner to be housed at the historic training centre of Epsom in Surrey since 1969. I think Simon Holt, the Channel 4 Racing commentator mentioned it as Harbour Law, the 22-1 winner passed the post.
makoceans
this year Mike Cattermole gave the ugliest commentary in the history of the Gold Cup, and achieved the same in flat's oldest classic race as well. Awful, just awful, how can we get him off-MIKE ?!
MrSmid888
Channel 4 commentary much better.
mike watters
i was on the 2nd, still had the each way so cash back, very good race
richard macmillan
OK I see what you mean about the false step but I think the jockey should off pulled the horse out to challenge instead of trying to fucking barge through the field like I fucking dumb idiot and if they do race idaho again put it in a smaller field so it's got a better chance of winning !!!
richard macmillan
jockey deserved better race than that idaho is a horse of poor condition and not raced for long so I think idaho should be put away for a while until it learn it lesson
Luke Morgan
+Luke Morgan how does Idaho deserve to be locked away for a while because of a false step? It's and animal not a fucking robot. Get a grip mate, talking out of your pocket rather than talking sense he's a quality horse, end of.
2
Dennis Page
I thought this was a disaster unfolding when Idaho nearly went down, so glad nothing serious happened. This race seemed such a slog, no wonder there are so few triple crown winners.
1
Mark Perryman
Hi anotherblonde, Mike Cattermole was referring to the horse being trained at Epsom not the race run at Epsom, it was the first time since 1969 that a horse that had been trained at Epsom won the St Leger
1
Capo Capo
Second time in a row I backed Harbour Law. Thought I had it in the Queen's Vase also. Brilliant run to stay on.
Mark Perryman
Richard McMillan: why is it that you say Idaho was a horse of poor condition?, he ran Harzand winner of the derby to half a length in the Irish Derby, O'brien doesn't enter his horses in races if they have no chance of winning.

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Alice Springs - Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes (Group 1) - 2016

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A sensational performance from Alice Springs who comes from last to first to win the Group 1 Matron Stakes. #LICW16





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Luke McCann
wow is right !
2
uhegbu
Very impressive, the Falmouth Stakes winner. That is how you make up for a frustrating afternoon for the legendary Irish trainer. Idaho as you know by now stumbled in the St Leger won by Harbour Law. Probably the biggest shock since Moonax in 1994.
Steak Head
Ryan is getting away with poor rides by been on superior horses. I'm sure people will say he judged the pace perfectly, he never AOB is that good his battalion are in another planet and my old lass could of won on that.